Roster implications for trading Ortiz

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I realize how much he must play to win rookie of the year.  Which is why I expect him to challenge for the ROY in 2025, and not in 2024.  I know what has been said by Elias, and I know what most of us here, myself included, WANT to see...Holiday on the OD roster and playing in Baltimore most of the year.  But at this point he has a total of 91 AAA PAs.  I expect to see him be more like Gunner was in 2022, get some MLB time close to the end of the season, and have little enough time in the MLB that he's still a rookie in 2025.  Let me be clear.  I don't WANT any of this to happen.  I am over Mateo/Urias and would LOVE to see both roster spots freed up and Holiday getting consistent playing time from OD on.  With Ortiz being gone I expect both Mateo and Urias to get significant playing time, and I REALLY hate that idea.  So none of this is what I WANT, but rather what I expect to see happen.

Of course I don't think that Norby/Urias is anywhere near his level as a player.  Holiday is a special, special player.  But there are other considerations that will go into play than just talent and level as a player.  As I said, be it service time manipulation, keeping him down long enough so he can challenge for ROY next year, etc etc I see Holiday getting 400-450ish at bats in AAA and then 100-125 in the MLB, similar to Gunnar in 2022.  I hope Elias proves me wrong, but until I see it happen, that's what I'm expecting to be the case.

I get where you are coming from because this has been typically how Elias and the org has handled their prospects. I just expect things to be done different this year given that they brought Burnes in for the year signaling that this is a go for it type of year (which IMO it should be). I don’t believe we are going to waste Adley’s last pre-arb season by playing guys who we know aren’t very good regularly in Urias and Mateo. We already did that last year. IMO it would be a huge mistake to hold Holliday back. As a prospect he is not even comparable to Gunnar (who may turn out to be a better player who knows?). But you just don’t see a player move 4 levels in one year and hit at all of them. That just doesn’t happen.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The hit a baseball left handed is why I thought he was left handed.

There isn’t a single left-handed throwing 2B, SS or 3B in the majors, and I don’t believe there’s been one the entire 55+ years I’ve been a fan, with the exception of isolated instances where someone was forced to move to a position for an inning or two for whatever reason.  For example, I once saw LHP Sam McDowell move to 2B for a couple of batters so that he could avoid facing Frank Howard, who owned him, in a critical spot.  Then he was reinstalled at P the following inning.  

Edited February 3 by Frobby

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fangraphs 2024 Depth Chart Projections (50/50 Steamer & ZIPS):

Holliday: .255/.345/.382, .321 wOBA

Mayo: .233/.318/.404, .315 wOBA

Urias: .251/.319/.388, .310 wOBA

Norby: .249/.309/.400, .308 wOBA

 

The missing component of course is defense, but if you think Holliday is at least as good as Urias at 2B then Holliday could very easily be at least +1 WAR over Urias for 2024 from day 1. Holliday projects to have the second highest OBP on the team (behind Adley, slightly above Gunnar) and putting the best team on the field Opening Day is probably Holliday/Adley/Gunnar batting 1/2/3.

It’s two questions the Orioles will be weighing:

(1) Does Holliday look that much better than Urias in Spring Training? Including defense and offseason developments. 

(2) How much more do the Orioles value the extra 2024 wins, however much they think that may be (+shot at ROY comp pick) vs. extra year of control in 7 years?
 

I think if the Orioles feel that Holliday is a significant improvement on Urias on Opening Day, they’re starting him immediately. They traded a lot of future value for just one season of Burnes. It’s a similar consideration with Holliday.

Before the Burnes move I thought the Orioles may be more inclined to smooth out their projected value, still put a lot of emphasis on future value, but Burnes puts a lot of priority on maximizing 2024. Hard to do that with Holliday in AAA if you actually think he’s one of your best players. 

[SemperFi]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

There isn’t a single left-handed throwing 2B, SS or 3B in the majors, and I don’t believe there’s been one the entire 55+ years I’ve been a fan, with the exception of isolated instances where someone was forced to move to a position for an inning or two for whatever reason.  For example, I once saw LHP Sam McDowell move to 2B for a couple of batters so that he could avoid facing Frank Howard, who owned him, in a critical spot.  Then he was reinstalled at P the following inning.  

I think less than 10 in recent MLB history-Gehrig is the most famous but likely similar to the above..

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fangraphs 2024 Depth Chart Projections (50/50 Steamer & ZIPS):

Holliday: .255/.345/.382, .321 wOBA

Mayo: .233/.318/.404, .315 wOBA

Urias: .251/.319/.388, .310 wOBA

Norby: .249/.309/.400, .308 wOBA

 

The missing component of course is defense, but if you think Holliday is at least as good as Urias at 2B then Holliday could very easily be at least +1 WAR over Urias for 2024 from day 1. Holliday projects to have the second highest OBP on the team (behind Adley, slightly above Gunnar) and putting the best team on the field Opening Day is probably Holliday/Adley/Gunnar batting 1/2/3.

It’s two questions the Orioles will be weighing:

(1) Does Holliday look that much better than Urias in Spring Training? Including defense and offseason developments. 

(2) How much more do the Orioles value the extra 2024 wins, however much they think that may be (+shot at ROY comp pick) vs. extra year of control in 7 years?
 

I think if the Orioles feel that Holliday is a significant improvement on Urias on Opening Day, they’re starting him immediately. They traded a lot of future value for just one season of Burnes. It’s a similar consideration with Holliday.

Before the Burnes move I thought the Orioles may be more inclined to smooth out their projected value, still put a lot of emphasis on future value, but Burnes puts a lot of priority on maximizing 2024. Hard to do that with Holliday in AAA if you actually think he’s one of your best players. 

I’ve been saying for months that I think the decision on Holliday will be based simply on whether he’s ready to be their best option at the start of the season.  They won’t keep him down artificially to try to game service time if he can help them win games on day one.  On the other hand, they won’t try to force him to the majors so they can chase the ROY draft pick if he doesn’t look quite ready.   It’s about winning.  

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been saying for months that I think the decision on Holliday will be based simply on whether he’s ready to be their best option at the start of the season.  They won’t keep him down artificially to try to game service time if he can help them win games on day one.  On the other hand, they won’t try to force him to the majors so they can chase the ROY draft pick if he doesn’t look quite ready.   It’s about winning.  

Agreed. Hopefully he kills it in spring training because roster makeup wise it just makes too much sense. He replaces Frazier as the lefty infielder, Urias is the utility guy.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

There isn’t a single left-handed throwing 2B, SS or 3B in the majors, and I don’t believe there’s been one the entire 55+ years I’ve been a fan, with the exception of isolated instances where someone was forced to move to a position for an inning or two for whatever reason.  For example, I once saw LHP Sam McDowell move to 2B for a couple of batters so that he could avoid facing Frank Howard, who owned him, in a critical spot.  Then he was reinstalled at P the following inning.  

Yeah even Google shows it's rare. This what a quick search gave me...

14 games - Mike Squires, 1983-84 White Sox (3B)

6 games - Royle Stillman, 1975 Orioles (SS)

3 games - Don Mattingly, 1986 Yankees (3B)

1 game - Mario Valdez, 1997 White Sox (3B)

1 game - Mark Ryal, 1987 Angels (SS)

1 game - Anthony Rizzo, 2017 Cubs (3B)

1 game - Terry Francona, 1985 Expos (3B)

 

For me, I think if you're left handed, then running/gliding to the left and throwing to 1B around the batters line moving that way is a lot easier than moving to the right and having to pivot and turn. I take my experiences playing QB and throwing on the run as a comparison. It was always easier to scramble to my throwing arm side. And at 2B, as a RH, it was a matter of gliding through the 2B bag toward the mound and getting the ball around the runner. It was easier to receive from the SS and throw that way. 

[MarCakes21]

On 2/1/2024 at 9:11 PM, Tony-OH said:

The expectation was that he would make the team but the Orioles are still fine without him. possible scenarios:

3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Urias
UTL: Mateo

3B: Mayo
SS: Gunnar
2B: Westburg
UTL: Mateo

3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Holliday
Utl: Mateo

3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Norby
Utl: Mateo

 

The part I found the most interesting of this is Mateo.  He's on the team no matter what, when many people assumed he was potential to be left off in favor of Ortiz.  

I think the fourth option is very slim, as well as the 3rd to start the season.  But either of the first two I'd be good with.

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Yeah even Google shows it's rare. This what a quick search gave me...

14 games - Mike Squires, 1983-84 White Sox (3B)

6 games - Royle Stillman, 1975 Orioles (SS)

3 games - Don Mattingly, 1986 Yankees (3B)

1 game - Mario Valdez, 1997 White Sox (3B)

1 game - Mark Ryal, 1987 Angels (SS)

1 game - Anthony Rizzo, 2017 Cubs (3B)

1 game - Terry Francona, 1985 Expos (3B)

 

For me, I think if you're left handed, then running/gliding to the left and throwing to 1B around the batters line moving that way is a lot easier than moving to the right and having to pivot and turn. I take my experiences playing QB and throwing on the run as a comparison. It was always easier to scramble to my throwing arm side. And at 2B, as a RH, it was a matter of gliding through the 2B bag toward the mound and getting the ball around the runner. It was easier to receive from the SS and throw that way. 

I think what you meant to write was, “I was spectacularly full of crap.”

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been saying for months that I think the decision on Holliday will be based simply on whether he’s ready to be their best option at the start of the season.  They won’t keep him down artificially to try to game service time if he can help them win games on day one.  On the other hand, they won’t try to force him to the majors so they can chase the ROY draft pick if he doesn’t look quite ready.   It’s about winning.  

You have to wonder if the new ownership allows extensions and if they extend Holliday, it opens the door wide open on him being up on OD.

That said, I doubt it would come together that fast although it should/could.

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been saying for months that I think the decision on Holliday will be based simply on whether he’s ready to be their best option at the start of the season.  They won’t keep him down artificially to try to game service time if he can help them win games on day one.  On the other hand, they won’t try to force him to the majors so they can chase the ROY draft pick if he doesn’t look quite ready.   It’s about winning.  

100% and I’ve agreed. But while Ortiz was here, I was skeptical that they would think Holliday was enough of an improvement on Opening Day where it was worth the extra control. Without Ortiz and with the move for Burnes, it feels like that gap over Urias is larger and there’s even more of a premium on 2024. Now I’m expecting it will be Holliday on Opening Day unless he shows he’s not ready in Spring Training. 

[eddie83]

Elias was on SiriusXM on the GM show yesterday.
 

- Holliday had meteoric rise. Not clear will benefit him to stay at AAA. He can bounce back between SS and 2nd. Said that expect to see Holliday playing a lot of second base in spring. Duquette thought after the interview he thinks Holliday makes the team on OD. 

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Elias was on SiriusXM on the GM show yesterday.
 

- Holliday had meteoric rise. Not clear will benefit him to stay at AAA. He can bounce back between SS and 2nd. Said that expect to see Holliday playing a lot of second base in spring. Duquette thought after the interview he thinks Holliday makes the team on OD. 

 

Nice info, thanks for sharing!

[interloper]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Elias was on SiriusXM on the GM show yesterday.
 

- Holliday had meteoric rise. Not clear will benefit him to stay at AAA. He can bounce back between SS and 2nd. Said that expect to see Holliday playing a lot of second base in spring. Duquette thought after the interview he thinks Holliday makes the team on OD. 

 

I think as long as he has a solid ST, it's likely he makes the OD roster. If he has a bad spring, though, I don't think they hesitate to send him down considering his age. 

Edited February 5 by interloper