Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So why wouldn't we consider giving a longer look to someone like Cowser instead; a player who has the potential to be great? A guy who posted OBPs of .490, .469, and .417 in each of his minor league seasons. For context, Hays' career OBP is .314. 

For now, that's what Spring Training is for.  I expect Cowser to see a lot of regular starting pitchers in Spring Training road games, and that's where he needs to stand out as someone who has potentially figured it out.  If he struggles, the only option is to get it going again in Norfolk.  If he rakes and forces the hands of Elias and Hyde, I could see Hays being traded to make room, or he just gets McKenn's spot and sees more playing time than McKenna did.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

He also happens to be a good hitter.

Except he isn't.   He's a very streaky hitter who at times can look incredible and other times looks like what the OP suggested, an OF Mateo.  Yes,  he was an Allstar due to a very hot first half, and then disappeared for much of the 2nd half.  Looking at his numbers and results, he's average at best.   But certainly not a 'good' hitter.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

That's my biggest problem with him as well. And in my humble opinion this is a team that desperately needs another solid OBP guy. Cowser is MUCH more likely to fill that void than Hays. 

Hays strikes me as a player who will decline fast when his athletic skills start to deteriorate. If Hays had a better command of the strike zone he could adjust his swing technique as he ages, but unless there is some breakthrough this year with Hays getting more selective at the plate it's unlikely to happen.

That's why I'd trade Hays now if the return is decent enough, but if we can see these flaws in Hays' game then other GM's know this as well. Maybe a team like the White Sox might overvalue Hays as a ballplayer.

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hays strikes me as a player who will decline fast when his athletic skills start to deteriorate. If Hays had a better command of the strike zone he could adjust his swing technique as he ages, but unless there is some breakthrough this year with Hays getting more selective at the plate it's unlikely to happen.

Yeah, I do think Hays is most likely destined for the Adam Jones style early-30s exit once his bat speed and defensive ability declines. He should have a few more good years. But I don't expect him to get more than 1-2 years in FA unless he really breaks out. 

[Sanity Check]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hays strikes me as a player who will decline fast when his athletic skills start to deteriorate. If Hays had a better command of the strike zone he could adjust his swing technique as he ages, but unless there is some breakthrough this year with Hays getting more selective at the plate it's unlikely to happen.

That's why I'd trade Hays now if the return is decent enough, but if we can see these flaws in Hays' game then other GM's know this as well. Maybe a team like the White Sox might overvalue Hays as a ballplayer.

If any team was overvaluing Hays, he'd have been traded by now.  I doubt that he is highly sought after by other teams.....so, the return is likely no decent enough.  That's a very low bar for a trade return.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My problem with Hays is his .314 career OBP. He improved to .325 this year and upped his career number from .305. He’s a product of the old regime. So unless he improves greatly I’d assume he’d be on his way out in the next season or two.

Well, he’s only under contract for another two years, so sure.  And I agree his OBP is nothing to write home about.  If Cowser is able to adjust to major league pitching, his track record (.420 OBP in the minors, .399 in AAA) certainly suggests that he’ll eventually be a better OBP guy than Hays at the major league level.  Whether he’s ready to do it in 2024 remains to be seen, and Cowser has the burden of proof.  

Interesting SSS comparison: Hays got 60 PA in his first call-up, as a 21-year old coming straight from AA: .217/.238/.317.   Cowser had a 61 PA debut after several hundred AAA PA at age 23: .115/.286/.148.   Overall, advantage Hays, but even there Cower had the better OBP despite giving away 102 points of BA.  So yeah, Cowser’s OBP skills are better.   That isn’t news.  He needs to show he can hit major league pitching, and he needs to play better defense than he showed in his brief big league audition last year.  His minor league track record suggests he can do both those things, but he has to prove it translates.   Meanwhile. Hays is a solid option, a slightly above average major league regular (IMO).   
 

[Sports Guy]

His career OPs+ is 107. He’s a slightly above average hitter and decent OFer. 
 

He is a 1.8-2.5 WAR type guy. He has value but he’s not overly valuable. He’s a guy you like having but he’s not a guy that should be blocking guys that are more talented, younger and should have a longer future in Baltimore at this points in their career.

 

[Just Regular]

Even setting aside pay, I would guess Elias might expect his chosen thoroughbreds to become the starting outfielders for the 2025 Orioles.

That water gets even deeper if Coby Mayo becomes an outfielder momentarily.     

Its a very good problem to have if there's a wealth of guys who can straight outplay Austin Hays, whom the Fangraphs LF position filter regards as:

MLB's 8th most productive LF in 2023 (and an AL All-Star)

11th for 2022-23, 14th for 2021-23, 15th for 2020-23

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Are you denying that Austin Hays is an All Star? 

Austin Hays was on the All-Star team.

Austin Hays will also very likely be included in an updated version of this article in the next five years. 

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/the_worst_mlb_all_stars_of_all_time/s1__24317707#slide_20

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

If any team was overvaluing Hays, he'd have been traded by now.  I doubt that he is highly sought after by other teams.....so, the return is likely no decent enough.  That's a very low bar for a trade return.

If there was ever a chance to trade Hays it would have been when Buck was with the Mets. That's why I voted to keep Hays and Cowser in the other thread. It's not that Hays is a bad ballplayer, but his ceiling is only going to be so high with his approach at the plate.

Also Hays would probably be best served getting 400 at bats year as opposed to starting 150 games.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His career OPs+ is 107. He’s a slightly above average hitter and decent OFer. 
 

He is a 1.8-2.5 WAR type guy. He has value but he’s not overly valuable. He’s a guy you like having but he’s not a guy that should be blocking guys that are more talented, younger and should have a longer future in Baltimore at this points in their career.

 

Let these guys earn it.  We’re coming off a 101 win season.  If they show they’re ready to outplay the veterans who helped the team get there last year, they’ll play plenty.  If they don’t, they won’t.  It’s about that simple.

Bur if you think it’s obvious that Cowser is more talented than Hays, I reject that.  Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t.  Hays was once the no. 21 ranked prospect by BA, 23 by MLB.com, and a top 5 finalist for MiL player of the year.  He’s extremely talented.  Cowser’s just the shiny new object.  He’s a better OBP guy, almost for sure.  Is he a better overall player?  Let him prove it.  
 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let these guys earn it.  We’re coming off a 101 win season.  If they show they’re ready to outplay the veterans who helped the team get there last year, they’ll play plenty.  If they don’t, they won’t.  It’s about that simple.

Bur if you think it’s obvious that Cowser is more talented than Hays, I reject that.  Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t.  Hays was once the no. 21 ranked prospect by BA, 23 by MLB.com, and a top 5 finalist for MiL player of the year.  He’s extremely talented.  Cowser’s just the shiny new object.  He’s a better OBP guy, almost for sure.  Is he a better overall player?  Let him prove it.  
 

Hays is talented in that he is a pro athlete and is one of the top 100 or so OFers in the entire world.  But his hitting profile is mediocre and his defense is good but overrated…and he’s oft injured.  He doesn’t have a lot of power, isn’t a great average guy and isn’t great at getting on base.  Injuries and age have also taken something out of him.

He’s the type of guy that does a lot of things well but nothing great. Cowser clearly has more upside. That’s not even debatable.

Now, Cowser may bust..that’s possible but he’s definitely the better talent right now.

I know you are a Hays apologist and Homer but no one can rationally believe any differently at this point in their career.

And I hope it sorts itself out…in that I hope real chances are given. 

[TheWall]

25 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Austin Hays was on the All-Star team.

Austin Hays will also very likely be included in an updated version of this article in the next five years. 

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/the_worst_mlb_all_stars_of_all_time/s1__24317707#slide_20

Needless hyperbole is fun I guess? Hays was great in the first half last year. He was a very deserving All Star isn't even close to the worst Oriole that has made that team in the last decade. 

[Jagwar]

I'm not sure why this is even thread worthy. 

[dystopia]

This thread belongs in the classics section.  You can’t do any better than this.