Anthony Santander: 2023 year in review and 2024 forecast

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Say O! said:

Stop grandstanding for a moment and actually read what I wrote.  This isn’t about favoritism but rather tangible data and value.  I guess we all live in SGs world where 2.6 fWAR (3.0 rWAR) and 120 WRC+ outfielders grow on fungible roster construction trees, never mind that only ~15 OFs and 2 DHs topped those stats in 2023 (among qualified batters). 

It’s factual that Santander has been among the better hitters in the league the last two seasons.  He isn’t MVP caliber star, but replacing him is either more expensive or likely a short-term downgrade.  Particularly with the bat.  If you want to argue the contrary, then you are getting fairly esoteric that Cowser/Kjerstad + $12M to upgrade another position has higher probability than outright 2024 Santander performance.  That path would certainly be much higher beta.  And like I indicated in my post, 2024 present value v 2025+ future value is different parameters.

Santander was worth 2.6 fWAR the last few years. As I said, he is a sold 2ish WAR player. Never denied that despite you seemingly missing me saying that.  And  I read what you said but it doesn’t change my point. I know what his production was and has been, which is why I started off by saying he is a very solid 2ish WAR guy.

However, he is also a guy who was a total of 2 fWAR from 2019-2021. The last 2 years, he has had an ObP of 318 and 325. His wOBA last year was 86th in baseball amongst those players who had 400 or more at bats.  His xwOBA was near the bottom third of the league.  He does hit the ball hard but a lot of his statcast data was very meh.

His OAA was below average(he does have a good arm) and  his speed is below average.

He has remained healthy the last few years but that was an issue in the past and now he is another year older.  Does that continue? I think you can reasonably expect it to but I think it also has to be consider in the discussion.

We may not get someone who immediately replaces his bat but the defensive difference could easily make up for the value.

And while you want to poo poo what else the 12M could do, it’s an obvious factor.  You don’t have to have Kjerstad be a 2.6 WAR guy for it to justify a trade.

So yea, I don’t find this to be some irreplaceable piece. The Cardinals let Pujols walk and still were very good. Teams lose solid players all the time and find ways to replace them.

If a team called the Os tomorrow with a high leverage BP arm for Santander, we would be better off for it.

My original point was that this offense doesn’t fall apart if AS wasn’t here. There are fans who say that. I see that sentiment quite often.  That’s completely wrong. It’s not based on reality especially when you consider what the Os can bring up behind him. If the Os system wasn’t littered with high ceiling bats that can play corner OF, DH or 1st base, it would be harder to justify the thought of replacing him. Or if you couldn’t pick up DH type guys often, it would be harder.

Edited February 12 by Sports Guy

[Matt Bennett]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We may not get someone who immediately replaces his bat but the defensive difference could easily make up for the value.

The solution to this is play him in the outfield less, not trade him away. 

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My original point was that this offense doesn’t fall apart if AS wasn’t here. There are fans who say that. I see that sentiment quite often.  That’s completely wrong. 

We don't need the offense to not fall apart. We need the offense to get better. Quite a bit better. We were 13th in OPS. The O's offense isn't getting better trading away Santander. 

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If a team called the Os tomorrow with a high leverage BP arm for Santander, we would be better off for it.

Sorry, this is madness. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

The solution to this is play him in the outfield less, not trade him away. 

We don't need the offense to not fall apart. We need the offense to get better. Quite a bit better. We were 13th in OPS. The O's offense isn't getting better trading away Santander. 

Sorry, this is madness. 

Great..so DH him more and push his value down more.  Awesome!  All the while taking away DH at bats from other guys.

The offense can get better with him gone.

You clearly don’t understand the value of bullpens right now or recognize our largest team need and what this team has a lot of coming.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Solid 2ish WAR guy whose value is overrated by the fan base. I consistently see people act like trading him would cause our offense to plummet and that he’s not replaceable. 
 

Been a fantastic rule 5 pick, that’s for sure.

I don’t buy that, but I do think the return on a potential Santander trade wouldn’t be worth it. Keep Santander until free agency and then reevaluate. 

Given the Orioles farm system and the money it would take to resign Santander he probably won’t be back after reaching free agency. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

I remember thinking they were going to trade him on the same deadline day that Mancini and Lopez were dealt. I figured his value was as high as it would be and they would start trying to make room for the younger guys then.

I believe Elias was pretty emphatic at the time in his press conference that they had no interest in moving him. It didn't seem like GM-speak either; he was pretty clear that Santander was a big part of their plans.

If he is as replaceable as @Sports Guy is suggesting he is, I think they would have moved him by now. This team has consistently acquired and developed good bullpen pieces for the last few years, and if they need one in July, I think they'll be able to swing a deadline deal as needed with other pieces less critical for 2024. Also, with one more year like the last two, Santander could very well play himself into a QO and end up bringing a draft pick back too.

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Great..so DH him more and push his value down more.  Awesome!  All the while taking away DH at bats from other guys.

The offense can get better with him gone.

You clearly don’t understand the value of bullpens right now or recognize our largest team need and what this team has a lot of coming.

Santander would have been so much better if Elias had added a MOO this offseason. But he never acquired one. 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I remember thinking they were going to trade him on the same deadline day that Mancini and Lopez were dealt. I figured his value was as high as it would be and they would start trying to make room for the younger guys then.

I believe Elias was pretty emphatic at the time in his press conference that they had no interest in moving him. It didn't seem like GM-speak either; he was pretty clear that Santander was a big part of their plans.

If he is as replaceable as @Sports Guy is suggesting he is, I think they would have moved him by now. This team has consistently acquired and developed good bullpen pieces for the last few years, and if they need one in July, I think they'll be able to swing a deadline deal as needed with other pieces less critical for 2024. Also, with one more year like the last two, Santander could very well play himself into a QO and end up bringing a draft pick back too.

Well it’s possible that they simply didn’t get an offer they deemed reasonable for him…or at least reasonable enough to trade him.

I wouldn’t really want to trade him for minor leaguers or something like that. I would want a MLer or at least a ML ready talent.  Not saying that’s what Elias had to have but it’s possible that he did want that and wasn’t offered that.

[Just Regular]

My favorite Anthony Santander 2023 lineup was this one:

2B Altuve, RF Santander, 1B Arraez, C Sal Perez, CF Acuna, LF D. Peralta, 3B E. Suarez, DH Gleyber, SS A. Gimenez

The WBC is a fundraiser for Rob Manfred, but the rest of the world I believe treats it like an exhibition the same way Ivan Drago treated his exhibition match with Apollo Creed.

Venezuela Baseball in its biggest game of the tournament riding a hot hand wrote him in ahead of All-Stars and Hall of Famers.    Santander isn't Ken Singleton, but I do like Adley getting to enjoy having a strong switch hitting teammate, and grew up on stories of managers saying things like the Orioles were very tough to face because of two guys like that in the middle.    Kjerstad and Cowser are supposed to be more, but they aren't yet.    Santander isn't as painful as Ryan O'Hearn or Sam Hilliard to watch maybe ahead of them on the priority play list.

[Billy F-Face3]

Anthony Santander is to this generation of Orioles team what Eddie Murray was to his Orioles team. A rare, reliable, switch hitting, powerhouse.  The only true cleanup hitter we have on the roster until one of Kjerstad or Mayo develops into their full potential.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anthony Santander is to this generation of Orioles team what Eddie Murray was to his Orioles team. A rare, reliable, switch hitting, powerhouse.  The only true cleanup hitter we have on the roster until one of Kjerstad or Mayo develops into their full potential.

Oh, please.  Eddie Murray is a Hall of Famer who finished in the top 5 of MVP voting five years in a row as an Oriole.  Let me know when Santander picks up a single MVP vote.  I like him, he’s a solid player.  He’s about as comparable to Eddie Murray as Chris Tillman was to Jim Palmer.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anthony Santander is to this generation of Orioles team what Eddie Murray was to his Orioles team. A rare, reliable, switch hitting, powerhouse.  The only true cleanup hitter we have on the roster until one of Kjerstad or Mayo develops into their full potential.

 

Edited February 13 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Birdland in NC]

He’s gonna jack 40 this year.  Give him a raise and enjoy the Taters 

[byrdz]

20 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

He’s gonna jack 40 this year.  Give him a raise and enjoy the Taters 

Funny, I thought the same last year. Maybe the contract year will help this time. 

 

 

[forphase1]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anthony Santander is to this generation of Orioles team what Eddie Murray was to his Orioles team. A rare, reliable, switch hitting, powerhouse.  The only true cleanup hitter we have on the roster until one of Kjerstad or Mayo develops into their full potential.

I know some folks have a tendency to overvalue the players currently on the roster, but this is ridiculous.  From 1978 to 1988, Eddie had an OPS over .829 EVERY SINGLE YEAR, with 4 being over .900.  In his CAREER Santander has had an OPS over .800 exactly once, over 37 games in 2020, so SSS.  Eddie, over 13 years with Baltimore had an OPS of .868, with a .294 BA and an .370 OBP.  Santander, to this point, has a career OPS of .766, a .248 BA and a .307 OBP.  The two are comparable only in the fact that they are both human and are both males.  Oh, and they both happen to switch hit and played for the Os.  Otherwise it isn't even close.  Geez.  

Back on topic though, I agree with SG.  I like Santander, but I also think we tend to think the offense revolves around him much more than it does.  He's a good, but not great, player and it would not be super difficult to largely replace his production.  For me he's borderline if we should offer the QO if it comes down to that and I think he might take it, and I don't want him at that price and I don't want him blocking other players who I expect to end up being better hitters (Mayo likely IMO, Kjerstad possibly).  I've enjoyed having him on the team, but I expect this will be his last year with the Os.  I'm interested to see if we are willing to trade him during a playoff run or if we just let him play it out.  

 

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anthony Santander is to this generation of Orioles team what Eddie Murray was to his Orioles team. A rare, reliable, switch hitting, powerhouse.  The only true cleanup hitter we have on the roster until one of Kjerstad or Mayo develops into their full potential.

Thank you for proving my point.