Corbin Burnes 2024

[Pickles]

7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Like @Frobbysaid

“ Assuming 33 starts, he’s on pace for 194 innings at a 2.76 ERA.   I think we’d all sign for that in blood.  “

So if his kRate is 9.0 that’s certainly be happy. 

Frobby's always talking about signing for things in blood.  LOL.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Frobby's always talking about signing for things in blood.  LOL.

Yeah, but not his blood.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, but not his blood.

Well, I for one am very happy that we have Burnes.  And I'm glad Elias runs this organization and not the consensus of this board.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I for one am very happy that we have Burnes.  And I'm glad Elias runs this organization and not the consensus of this board.

I agree 100%.    Now let’s see how Elias handles the Holliday situation.   It probably involves a lot of patience but we’ll see how much the kid tests it.

[Flash- bd]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Not even remotely.

You're talking about his Ks in recent starts (SSS) and using it to speculate about a gray future, no? Or have I misunderstood? 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

You're talking about his Ks in recent starts (SSS) and using it to speculate about a gray future, no? Or have I misunderstood? 

My original post on the subject was simply that we need more Ks out of him and that I don’t think it will be an issue.

That said, if he continues to be a low K rate guy with league average missed bat rates (which he won’t), that means he’s not likely to be an elite, CY level starter. 

Doesn’t mean he can’t be good but there’s a difference between good and elite.

Going back to what you said in response to what I said, I’m not judging him off of these starts. I’m not saying this is who he is or will be going forward.

Just saying that if this becomes a trend, he won’t be as effective as we hope he will be.

[DirtyBird]

13 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

You're talking about his Ks in recent starts (SSS) and using it to speculate about a gray future, no? Or have I misunderstood? 

'21 - 12.6 K/9

'22 - 10.8 K/9

'23 -9.3 K/9

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

'21 - 12.6 K/9

'22 - 10.8 K/9

'23 -9.3 K/9

This is a reason I don’t want to sign him long term.

I think he’s going to be a very solid guy for the next several years but I’m not paying him ace level money.  Just don’t see him being that good 3+ years from now.

If we could sign him for 5/200 or less, I would do it but that’s not likely to get it done.

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

My original post on the subject was simply that we need more Ks out of him and that I don’t think it will be an issue.

That said, if he continues to be a low K rate guy with league average missed bat rates (which he won’t), that means he’s not likely to be an elite, CY level starter. 

Doesn’t mean he can’t be good but there’s a difference between good and elite.

Going back to what you said in response to what I said, I’m not judging him off of these starts. I’m not saying this is who he is or will be going forward.

Just saying that if this becomes a trend, he won’t be as effective as we hope he will be.

Fair, fair. 

[Just Regular]

Szymborski's newest projections suggest 8/210 would be fair.     Same article slots Elly de la Cruz 9/192 somewhere near the Witt-Gunnar tier of player.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2024-edition/

[Satyr3206]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Szymborski's newest projections suggest 8/210 would be fair.     Same article slots Elly de la Cruz 9/192 somewhere near the Witt-Gunnar tier of player.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2024-edition/

8 years? No way I would ever sign a Pitcher for that long. 5 is my max.

[DirtyBird]

12 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Szymborski's newest projections suggest 8/210 would be fair.     Same article slots Elly de la Cruz 9/192 somewhere near the Witt-Gunnar tier of player.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2024-edition/

Dude can’t even get into the 7th inning

[glenn__davis]

Yeah, I can't imagine any scenario in which what he ends up signing for is what I'd be willing to pay him.

Enjoy the season from him and move on.

[Just Regular]

34 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Yeah, I can't imagine any scenario in which what he ends up signing for is what I'd be willing to pay him.

Enjoy the season from him and move on.

This is where my outlook rests too.   

This year's Strong SP acquisition occurring ~2/1 kind of sets a yardstick.   Its bookend is ~8/1, and those two dates figure to recur as moments around when Elias/Sigbot are probable to acquire via trade important pitchers for short terms.

Player development and qualifying offers help keep the supply of Joey Ortizes high.     In five years if things work out really well, there's probably an entire other team or team and a half of ex-Orioles bats active around the league.

That said Szymborski's point he's the strongest pitcher money can buy for the rest of the Adley-Gunnar years seems on target, and I do credit Elias-Sig with a sharp eye where the top of the talent pyramid is.

Edited Tuesday at 14:59 by Just Regular

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Dude can’t even get into the 7th inning

You’ve mentioned this several times.  Burnes has thrown 35.1 innings in 6 starts.   At that pace, in 33 starts he’ll throw 194 innings.  I’d gladly take that.