Corbin Burnes 2024

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This is true they have a good team! I’m delighted that we have pitchers that guys here criticize when a 3 ER performance over 6 innings is a bad outing.

Who will have a better record at seasons end:  KC or BOS?

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

If Burnes can’t get 6 innings, we will definitely need bullpen help

I think your post that kicked this off isn’t entirely wrong, just hyperbolic.  Sure, it’s disappointing that Burnes was only able to cover 5.2 innings in a game where we had a big lead.   Where you lost me was saying it was a “terrible” outing for an ace.   It was a mild disappointment, is all.  

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Need more Ks out of Burnes. He isn’t putting guys away lately. Last year his K rate wasn’t good early and then he picked it up.

To be that truly elite, ace level guy, that will need to change.  I suspect it will, so not worried about it but these small signs that we have seen in the last few years are part of why I’m not willing to extend him.

Just curious, Was Greg Maddux an ace? Age 30-36 he was a clear #1 and his career K/9 of 6. His best seasons were 7.3 and 7.8. As long as his BB/9 runs don’t increase it isn’t a big deal. The credit for the home run yesterday goes to the hitter. The pitch was far from a meatball. 
 

An interesting stats …. Maddux faced around 20,500 batters and only allowed something like 350 3-0 counts ….his BB/9 was 1.8 for his career and under 1.5 from 30-36. After that he wasn’t an ace but a very good #3. And he played part of his career in the roid era. 
 

Burnes doesn’t need to fan 10-12 per 9. If he manages a K/9 per 9 that’s plenty good enough if he can get the BB/9 under 2.0. He’s currently at 1.5 this season and was 1.8 two seasons ago. And 2.6 for his career. But that doesn’t matter when your are struck ing 10-12 batters .

Edited April 21 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

Honestly I’m not sure. But, KC has a better shot at a playoff berth than the Red Sox.Could you have predicted the Rangers would make the World Series last year? The schedule is more even this season but in the past the division strength would’ve made it an easy answer.

[Roll Tide]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think your post that kicked this off isn’t entirely wrong, just hyperbolic.  Sure, it’s disappointing that Burnes was only able to cover 5.2 innings in a game where we had a big lead.   Where you lost me was saying it was a “terrible” outing for an ace.   It was a mild disappointment, is all.  

And if that’s a bad outing for him he’s going to have a monster season.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

And if that’s a bad outing for him he’s going to have a monster season.

Assuming 33 starts, he’s on pace for 194 innings at a 2.76 ERA.   I think we’d all sign for that in blood.  

[dystopia]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just curious, Was Greg Maddux an ace? Age 30-36 he was a clear #1 and his career K/9 of 6. His best seasons were 7.3 and 7.8. As long as his BB/9 runs don’t increase it isn’t a big deal. The credit for the home run yesterday goes to the hitter. The pitch was far from a meatball. 
 

An interesting stats …. Maddux faced around 20,500 batters and only allowed something like 350 3-0 counts ….his BB/9 was 1.8 for his career and under 1.5 from 30-36. After that he wasn’t an ace but a very good #3. And he played part of his career in the roid era. 
 

Burnes doesn’t need to fan 10-12 per 9. If he manages a K/9 per 9 that’s plenty good enough if he can get the BB/9 under 2.0. He’s currently at 1.5 this season and was 1.8 two seasons ago. And 2.6 for his career. But that doesn’t matter when your are struck ing 10-12 batters .

Shh, can't say stuff like that on here. 

[interloper]

I would like more strikeouts.

[Otter]

46 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just curious, Was Greg Maddux an ace? Age 30-36 he was a clear #1 and his career K/9 of 6. His best seasons were 7.3 and 7.8. As long as his BB/9 runs don’t increase it isn’t a big deal. The credit for the home run yesterday goes to the hitter. The pitch was far from a meatball. 
 

An interesting stats …. Maddux faced around 20,500 batters and only allowed something like 350 3-0 counts ….his BB/9 was 1.8 for his career and under 1.5 from 30-36. After that he wasn’t an ace but a very good #3. And he played part of his career in the roid era. 
 

Burnes doesn’t need to fan 10-12 per 9. If he manages a K/9 per 9 that’s plenty good enough if he can get the BB/9 under 2.0. He’s currently at 1.5 this season and was 1.8 two seasons ago. And 2.6 for his career. But that doesn’t matter when your are struck ing 10-12 batters .

What you say is certainly possible, but using one of the best pitchers of all time (and a true unicorn) as the exception to disprove the rule isn't a great argument IMO.

[Moose Milligan]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Assuming 33 starts, he’s on pace for 194 innings at a 2.76 ERA.   I think we’d all sign for that in blood.  

@DirtyBirdwould be pissed that it wasn’t 198 innings. 

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

@DirtyBirdwould be pissed that it wasn’t 198 innings. 

Kremer promised us 200 innings

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Otter said:

What you say is certainly possible, but using one of the best pitchers of all time (and a true unicorn) as the exception to disprove the rule isn't a great argument IMO.

Not to mention it was a different era.

That said, Burnes doesn’t have the command or control Maddux had..simply put, maybe no one in baseball history has either.

[Ripken]

We could be starting DL:

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Just curious, Was Greg Maddux an ace? Age 30-36 he was a clear #1 and his career K/9 of 6. His best seasons were 7.3 and 7.8. As long as his BB/9 runs don’t increase it isn’t a big deal. The credit for the home run yesterday goes to the hitter. The pitch was far from a meatball. 
 

An interesting stats …. Maddux faced around 20,500 batters and only allowed something like 350 3-0 counts ….his BB/9 was 1.8 for his career and under 1.5 from 30-36. After that he wasn’t an ace but a very good #3. And he played part of his career in the roid era. 
 

Burnes doesn’t need to fan 10-12 per 9. If he manages a K/9 per 9 that’s plenty good enough if he can get the BB/9 under 2.0. He’s currently at 1.5 this season and was 1.8 two seasons ago. And 2.6 for his career. But that doesn’t matter when your are struck ing 10-12 batters .

Maddux had well above average K rates for his era.

[Warehouse]

Burnes had a 25.5% K rate last year and has a 25.4% K rate so far this year. His whiff rate was 28.7% last year and is 26.0% this year.  

Looking at Baseball Savant run value and Stuff+, it’s pretty that his breaking pitches, especially his slider, have been less effective for him this year than in the past. That seems like something that is likely to improve as the season progresses.  Other than his breaking pitches, I don’t see any signs of drop-off.