Bullpen 2024

[Warehouse]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would bet on optioning Akin and would support the move. I think there is a lot of recency bias going on. Akin is pitching better right now but Elias's m.o. is to keep control of as much talent as possible. I'd rather give Baumann a chance to fail and still have Akin than risk Akin failing without an apparent alternative. 

If you go back to preseason ZIPS projections, Akin was forecasted to have a 3.76 FIP and Bauman a 4.40 FIP.  So I think it’s more than recency bias.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Webb has been pitching really well this year but I’ve been down on him because his velo disappeared. After being 95 mph his whole career he’s been 92 all season. Then seemingly overnight, last night he was back to 94/95, and not coincidentally was dominant. 

I don’t know if it was physical or mechanical or what, but Webb with a plus fastball and change and solid sweeper is a very nice pitch mix, and if he carries the improved command with with the return of his velo then he could have a solid year. 

Also, Keegan Akin has been dominant. Even with the numbers game and having an option remaining, I don’t see him being sent down.

[LGOrioles]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would bet on optioning Akin and would support the move. I think there is a lot of recency bias going on. Akin is pitching better right now but Elias's m.o. is to keep control of as much talent as possible. I'd rather give Baumann a chance to fail and still have Akin than risk Akin failing without an apparent alternative. 

Baumann was given almost all of last year (when he pitched himself out of the bullpen) and the beginning of this year to fail. He’s succeeded as he’s clearly not trusted whatsoever. Hyde said in his postgame presser that Akin and Webb were exhausted. Baumann is very well rested and Hyde went with an “exhausted” Akin over him in the biggest series of the year. It’s pretty telling who he trusts more and I highly doubt he would want to lose a guy he trusts and is pitching very well for Baumann. 

As far as recency bias, Baumann’s career ERA in relief is .40 higher than Akin’s. His FIP and xFIP are nearly 1.5 runs higher. And his K-BB% is half of Akin’s. It’s not really close who is better right now or who has been the better reliever over the past few years. 

Edited May 1 by LGOrioles

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Baumann was given almost all of last year (when he pitched himself out of the bullpen) and the beginning of this year to fail. He’s succeeded as he’s clearly not trusted whatsoever. Hyde said in his postgame presser that Akin and Webb were exhausted. Baumann is very well rested and Hyde went with an “exhausted” Akin over him in the biggest series of the year. It’s pretty telling who he trusts more and I highly doubt he would want to lose a guy he trusts and is pitching very well for Baumann. 

As far as recency bias, Baumann’s career ERA in relief is .40 higher than Akin’s. His FIP and xFIP are nearly 1.5 runs higher. And his K-BB% is half of Akin’s. It’s not really close who is better right now or who has been the better reliever over the past few years. 

Honestly we need to Burnes to go 7+ tonight as well. 

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Baumann was given almost all of last year (when he pitched himself out of the bullpen) and the beginning of this year to fail. He’s succeeded as he’s clearly not trusted whatsoever. Hyde said in his postgame presser that Akin and Webb were exhausted. Baumann is very well rested and Hyde went with an “exhausted” Akin over him in the biggest series of the year. It’s pretty telling who he trusts more and I highly doubt he would want to lose a guy he trusts and is pitching very well for Baumann. 

As far as recency bias, Baumann’s career ERA in relief is .40 higher than Akin’s. His FIP and xFIP are nearly 1.5 runs higher. And his K-BB% is half of Akin’s. It’s not really close who is better right now or who has been the better reliever over the past few years. 

Keeping Baumann is not a hill I will die on, but Akin had a 6.85 ERA last year and 4.76 second half '22. That is a pretty long stretch of sucking and my admittedly negative view of Akin is largely based on that stretch. Whereas Baumann had a 3.76 and while W/L is not a great stat, his 10-1 was impressive.

I was really surprised we didn't see Baumann last night with the bullpen in its current state. I guess Kremer went just long enough that Hyde could get away with not using him. 

Appears it is moot now: just saw Grayson to IL...Argh. 

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Keeping Baumann is not a hill I will die on, but Akin had a 6.85 ERA last year and 4.76 second half '22. That is a pretty long stretch of sucking and my admittedly negative view of Akin is largely based on that stretch. Whereas Baumann had a 3.76 and while W/L is not a great stat, his 10-1 was impressive.

I was really surprised we didn't see Baumann last night with the bullpen in its current state. I guess Kremer went just long enough that Hyde could get away with not using him. 

Appears it is moot now: just saw Grayson to IL...Argh. 

10-1 record was cute but overall meaningless. Reliever records don’t matter at all. Starter record barely matter. Baumann is simply not good, that’s why he wasn’t in the game yesterday. Hyde wanted to win. 

[LGOrioles]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Keeping Baumann is not a hill I will die on, but Akin had a 6.85 ERA last year and 4.76 second half '22. That is a pretty long stretch of sucking and my admittedly negative view of Akin is largely based on that stretch. Whereas Baumann had a 3.76 and while W/L is not a great stat, his 10-1 was impressive.

I was really surprised we didn't see Baumann last night with the bullpen in its current state. I guess Kremer went just long enough that Hyde could get away with not using him. 

Appears it is moot now: just saw Grayson to IL...Argh. 

That’s fair. Akin definitely slowed down the second half of 2022 and was bad last year. In the 2nd half of 2022 he was really just hurt by a .407 BABIP and crazy low 55% LOB% though, as his FIP and xFIP were both below 2.70. He’s maintained strong K/BB rates as a reliever and I think that gives him a higher floor and ceiling than Baumann, even if he can be hit hard at times if his location isn’t on (like last season). 

Baumann’s just so frustrating because his stuff is great but he has no command, doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, and gives up really hard contact, which obviously is not very good for a pitcher.
 

Edited May 1 by LGOrioles

[Just Regular]

If Brandon Hyde issued power rankings updates like Tony does for prospects, could Kimbrel be last?

I think Hyde's going to hunt a low leverage spot for the next outing.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

If Brandon Hyde issued power rankings updates like Tony does for prospects, could Kimbrel be last?

I think Hyde's going to hunt a low leverage spot for the next outing.

Why would he want to use him today though? I like that we got him another day of rest because I'm not necessarily buying that his back is magically better after 2 days. 

[Billy F-Face3]

The bullpen has looked better since Perez has returned. Jacob Webb has pretty much solidified his spot on the roster. 

I think we need to let Akin rest a bit now after having used him so much, because we don't want him to melt down. 

Baumann is still on the roster and we will have to roll the dice and rely on him in game 1 against the Reds. Hopefully we get his better version. He's useful on occasions. 

I haven't done the math to see when Suarez might be available to join the pen. He should be getting close to his full rest. It also possible they could try a 6 man rotation for a time or 2 through the rotation.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The bullpen has looked better since Perez has returned. Jacob Webb has pretty much solidified his spot on the roster. 

I think we need to let Akin rest a bit now after having used him so much, because we don't want him to melt down. 

Baumann is still on the roster and we will have to roll the dice and rely on him in game 1 against the Reds. Hopefully we get his better version. He's useful on occasions. 

I haven't done the math to see when Suarez might be available to join the pen. He should be getting close to his full rest. It also possible they could try a 6 man rotation for a time or 2 through the rotation.

Suarez regular turn to start would be Friday so he should certainly be ready.   
 

I don’t trust Baumann but Hyde has always been a big fan of his stuff.   Still, he has to be low man on the totem pole right now.   They might buy time by optioning Akin.  It’s kind of their M.O..

[WarehouseChatter]

My “comfort index” is currently:

Extremely High
-none-

High
Coulombe
Webb
Cano
Perez

Medium
Kimbrel
Akin

Low
Baumann

Need More Info
Suarez

If Kimbrel is healthy, I might have more comfort. If Suarez makes a successful conversion and Wells gets healthy and moves to pen, we could actually have a really good pen. Irvin could contribute as well if Grayson returns and takes his spot in the rotation. We need a strong pen in the playoffs. 

[EdwinRip]

Akin has been the best and most valuable reliever on the team thus far this year and it’s not particularly close.

[EddeeEddee]

16 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Akin has been the best and most valuable reliever on the team thus far this year and it’s not particularly close.

Cano has more innings pitched than Akin and a lower ERA by over a run.

Webb has essentially the same number of innings pitched, a lower ERA by over a run and a half, a better WHIP and a better BAA.

Coulombe has a better ERA by over half a run and also has the best WHIP and BAA of any reliever in the bullpen.

Even Dillon Tate also has a better ERA.

Even though Akin has been roughed up a few times I agree for sure he's been good, but don't know how you can say he's been the best on the team, whether by a small or large margin.

 

[EdwinRip]

47 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Cano has more innings pitched than Akin and a lower ERA by over a run.

Webb has essentially the same number of innings pitched, a lower ERA by over a run and a half, a better WHIP and a better BAA.

Coulombe has a better ERA by over half a run and also has the best WHIP and BAA of any reliever in the bullpen.

Even Dillon Tate also has a better ERA.

Even though Akin has been roughed up a few times I agree for sure he's been good, but don't know how you can say he's been the best on the team, whether by a small or large margin.

 

His combined war is more than any reliever on the team.  He has a FIP of 1.02.