Chayce McDermott 2024

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Come on now. It's a few games. He was our minor league pitcher of the year last year and one of our top pitching prospects for a reason. Let's give him a little time and see if he sorts it out. 

His stuff is nasty.  Really nasty.  He could be a massive weapon in the pen this year.  I’d like to see him groomed to help out in a WS run this year.  Just don’t see any way he be an effective MLB starter short of a complete turn around.  Nothing in his pro/amateur stats suggest he’s going to have any control let alone command needed to start. 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Except, I bet his strike rate was better in the 2nd half last year and he looked pretty good in ST.   He showed progress in Norfolk last year and now is off to a rough start.  Not looking good but no one is pulling the plug  3 games into the season.

As well they shouldn’t.  But I think they need to at some point and Am wondering when that’ll be.  The sooner they do, the sooner he can help out the MLB club. 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

His stuff is nasty.  Really nasty.  He could be a massive weapon in the pen this year.  I’d like to see him groomed to help out in a WS run this year.  Just don’t see any way he be an effective MLB starter short of a complete turn around.  Nothing in his pro/amateur stats suggest he’s going to have any control let alone command needed to start. 

Respectfully, but what are you talking about?

His 2023 numbers, AA and AAA combined: 22 starts, 119 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.151 WHIP. 

Yes, he had 5.1 BB/9. But give me this guy in my farm system all day. If you think his inflated 11.3 BB/9 after 3 starts this year is indicative of his true talent level, then I dunno what to tell you. 

Edited April 11 by interloper

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

His stuff is nasty.  Really nasty.  He could be a massive weapon in the pen this year.  I’d like to see him groomed to help out in a WS run this year.  Just don’t see any way he be an effective MLB starter short of a complete turn around.  Nothing in his pro/amateur stats suggest he’s going to have any control let alone command needed to start. 

Sounds like we’re talking about 2023 DL Hall who is now in the Brewers rotation.   Perhaps McDermott does a Hall this September.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

As well they shouldn’t.  But I think they need to at some point and Am wondering when that’ll be.  The sooner they do, the sooner he can help out the MLB club. 

How soon should they?

[interloper]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sounds like we’re talking about 2023 DL Hall who is now in the Brewers rotation.   Perhaps McDermott does a Hall this September.

Yeah, we have to give these guys a chance to succeed. Plus there's no sense in just making him a reliever at Norfolk. Just build up his arm and if we need him as a reliever, we'll use him in that role. But we might also need him as a starter this year.

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Respectfully, but what are you talking about?

His 2023 numbers, AA and AAA combined: 22 starts, 119 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.151 WHIP. 

Yes, he had 5.1 BB/9. But give me this guy in my farm system all day. If you think his 11.3 BB/9 is indicative of his true talent level based on his career after 3 starts, then I dunno what to tell you. 

He threw 57% of his pitches for strikes last year, with a 5.1 BB9.  That accounts for swing and miss out of the zone.  MLB hitters are not going to be swinging at those balls and his walk rate will skyrocket while his strike % will drop even lower.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

He threw 57% of his pitches for strikes last year, with a 5.1 BB9.  That accounts for swing and miss out of the zone.  MLB hitters are not going to be swinging at those balls and his walk rate will skyrocket while his strike % will drop even lower.  

Just curious.  Do you know the numbers on Povich and Hall last year?

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How soon should they?

He’s slated for about 140- 150 IP this year theoretically.  Imagine they’ll give him the whole year to figure it out.  After ASB would be when I’d start to consider it.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He’s slated for about 140- 150 IP this year theoretically.  Imagine they’ll give him the whole year to figure it out.  After ASB would be when I’d start to consider it.  

Sounds about right to me.  

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just curious.  Do you know the numbers on Povich and Hall last year?

Povich 62%
Hall 59%

[CHIP]

Looking at McDermott's 3D Pitch chart on Baseball Savant...  there is movement as everyone is saying.  But the issue is that he is so far outside/off the zone and up/down that the chases at the lower levels aren't happening at the upper level.  There are almost zero swings at pitches outside of the zone.  

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=4/10/2024&gamePk=752713&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=pitch3d&sportId=11#752713

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, CHIP said:

Looking at McDermott's 3D Pitch chart on Baseball Savant...  there is movement as everyone is saying.  But the issue is that he is so far outside/off the zone and up/down that the chases at the lower levels aren't happening at the upper level.  There are almost zero swings at pitches outside of the zone.  

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=4/10/2024&gamePk=752713&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=pitch3d&sportId=11#752713

I think he proved he could pitch at AAA last year.  He’s just struggling right now.  

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He threw 57% of his pitches for strikes last year, with a 5.1 BB9.  That accounts for swing and miss out of the zone.  MLB hitters are not going to be swinging at those balls and his walk rate will skyrocket while his strike % will drop even lower.  

I don't disagree with this, I just don't think there's any sense in converting him to a reliever at Norfolk. You don't need to make him a reliever until you have a need at the ML level, and then he just comes up and fires gas. But I also don't think at 25 years old that he's got no chance of improving. Maybe he's a reliever long-term, but he blew away AAA hitters last year for 50 innings over 8 starts. 

He's off to a rough start this year but that's not entirely unexpected, and it's a small sample. Just let him simmer for awhile. Povich had kind of a rough year last year and he's off to a great start. So... is he fully fixed? I doubt it. And so McDermott is not fully broken, by that same logic. 

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I don't disagree with this, I just don't think there's any sense in converting him to a reliever at Norfolk. You don't need to make him a reliever until you have a need at the ML level, and then he just comes up and fires gas. But I also don't think at 25 years old that he's got no chance of improving. Maybe he's a reliever long-term, but he blew away AAA hitters last year for 50 innings over 8 starts. 

He's off to a rough start this year but that's not entirely unexpected, and it's a small sample. Just let him simmer for awhile. Povich had kind of a rough year last year and he's off to a great start. So... is he fully fixed? I doubt it. And so McDermott is not fully broken, by that same logic. 

I sure hope he figures it out, his pitches move a ton.  It just appears as if he has absolutely no clue where they are going.  He’s very different than Povich, only similarly being the K/9 rate.  Povich was a control guy in college (has a 60 control FV) who worked to improve his stuff and suffered control problems in the process.  McDermott is a flame throwing live arm who misses his spots by feet, not inches.