Gunnar Henderson 2024

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Agreed, appreciate the stats.

Gunnar isn't a leadoff hitter - he's a prototypical #3 hitter or cleanup hitter. Hyde writes poor lineups, and Gunnar hitting leadoff has been one of the consistent problems with the offense this season. Gunnar hitting mostly solo shots is both a consequence and reflection of this offense's flaws - the O's have too many low-OBP hitters in the lineup (hitting in less-than-optimal spots for the most part) and are too reliant on solo homers to generate runs.

At least Hyde has started hitting Westburg leadoff against LHP, which is progress, but Hyde is way too stubborn and too slow to make the correct adjustments. He's very similar to Buck Showalter in that respect. 

Anyway, I look forward to Hyde waking up and moving Gunnar down to #3/#4 against RHP.

 

A lot of teams (likely driven by analytics) are putting their best overall hitter at 2 (like the Yankees batting Soto 2, and the Dodgers batting Shohei 2) to maximize ABs while guaranteeing that a high-OBP guy is batting in front of him to give him opportunities with men on base.  That's probably what we want.  It seems logical considering how thoroughly debunked small-ball in the first inning has been.  Rutschman at 3 is fine.

[Brooks The Great]

4 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Realistically I think Adley as the leadoff guy is the best lineup for us but if he has trouble batting leadoff in half the games because he can't get his catcher's gear off fast enough then I get it.

 

Cowser has continued to be incredibly patient, and if Adley can't be our leadoff guy then Cowser is probably our next best option.  Of course Cowser also hits a lot of bombs, so it'd be interesting if he goes on another heater.

 

If Cowser gets off the schneid then Cowser leadoff and Gunnar at 2 could be incredibly potent.  I don't think Cowser is actually playing that badly, he's just been running into some bad luck.  And he's starting to wake up a little bit anyway.

I was going to say pretty much the same thing about Cowser in my post, but left out my thoughts to keep the post more Gunnar-centric. But I totally agree that Cowser fits the best as this team's leadoff hitter, especially since Holliday doesn't look like he's going to make an impact offensively as early as most of us thought heading into the season. 

Going back to last season, I've said Cowser has the best mix of patience, hit tool, power, and speed to be a great leadoff hitter. The strikeouts are most likely always going to be high with him, but he has .380-.400+ OBP makeup, and having someone like that hitting leadoff with Adley and Gunnar hitting directly behind Cowser is going to set things up for an elite offense which is much more dynamic and less one-dimensional than the what we've seen up until this point.

Cowser

Adley

Gunnar

Westburg

O'Hearn

Santander

Mountcastle

Is an ideal top 7 against RHP for right now, with Kjerstad (replacing Hays) and Mayo (essentially replacing Mateo and bumping Westburg to 2B) making the lineup legitimately scary within the next couple months. Mullins and Hays need to be phased out, with Santander and Mountcastle not far behind if those two continue struggling and not reaching base enough to justify hitting in the middle of the order.

[Brooks The Great]

12 minutes ago, Hallas said:

A lot of teams (likely driven by analytics) are putting their best overall hitter at 2 (like the Yankees batting Soto 2, and the Dodgers batting Shohei 2) to maximize ABs while guaranteeing that a high-OBP guy is batting in front of him to give him opportunities with men on base.  That's probably what we want.  It seems logical considering how thoroughly debunked small-ball in the first inning has been.  Rutschman at 3 is fine.

It's fine, but I would personally prefer having Cowser and Adley taking tons of pitches back-to-back before Gunnar further punishes the opposing starting pitcher with high exit velo barrels. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Adley is great, but with the way catchers age if the Orioles are going to lock up one of their young stars to an 8 to 10 year contract it should be Gunnar.

What if Adley wants an 8-10 year deal but Gunnar wants a 13-15 year deal?  That’s probably the reality.  

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What if Adley wants an 8-10 year deal but Gunnar wants a 13-15 year deal?  That’s probably the reality.  

Im more than fine not extending Adley.

I really wonder how he will age with a subpar arm, subpar bat speed and mediocre (although better) EV stats.

I’m fine with extending him but if it doesn’t happen, I don’t find that to be some travesty.

 

[emmett16]

7 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Your best POWER hitter should get the most at bats with men on base. Gunnar is third on the team in OB%, but far and away the leader in SLG%. Heck, right now he has the highest SLG% in the AL. Yet he has the fewest ABs with men on base of any of our regulars. Batting him leadoff gives Gunnar more opportunities to hit HRs and score runs, but fewer opportunities to drive in runs. 75% of Henderson's HRs have been hit with the base empty. Compare that to Ohtani (62%), Tucker (60%), Ozuna (57%), Naylor (50%), or Judge (46%). 

 

6 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Agreed, appreciate the stats.

Gunnar isn't a leadoff hitter - he's a prototypical #3 hitter or cleanup hitter. Hyde writes poor lineups, and Gunnar hitting leadoff has been one of the consistent problems with the offense this season. Gunnar hitting mostly solo shots is both a consequence and reflection of this offense's flaws - the O's have too many low-OBP hitters in the lineup (hitting in less-than-optimal spots for the most part) and are too reliant on solo homers to generate runs.

At least Hyde has started hitting Westburg leadoff against LHP, which is progress, but Hyde is way too stubborn and too slow to make the correct adjustments. He's very similar to Buck Showalter in that respect. 

Anyway, I look forward to Hyde waking up and moving Gunnar down to #3/#4 against RHP.

 

Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle).  That is just over 1/4 of the season.   Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning.  He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season.  So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season.    Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I was going to say pretty much the same thing about Cowser in my post, but left out my thoughts to keep the post more Gunnar-centric. But I totally agree that Cowser fits the best as this team's leadoff hitter, especially since Holliday doesn't look like he's going to make an impact offensively as early as most of us thought heading into the season. 

Going back to last season, I've said Cowser has the best mix of patience, hit tool, power, and speed to be a great leadoff hitter. The strikeouts are most likely always going to be high with him, but he has .380-.400+ OBP makeup, and having someone like that hitting leadoff with Adley and Gunnar hitting directly behind Cowser is going to set things up for an elite offense which is much more dynamic and less one-dimensional than the what we've seen up until this point.

Cowser

Adley

Gunnar

Westburg

O'Hearn

Santander

Mountcastle

Is an ideal top 7 against RHP for right now, with Kjerstad (replacing Hays) and Mayo (essentially replacing Mateo and bumping Westburg to 2B) making the lineup legitimately scary within the next couple months. Mullins and Hays need to be phased out, with Santander and Mountcastle not far behind if those two continue struggling and not reaching base enough to justify hitting in the middle of the order.

I agree with the part of your post of maybe trying Cowser with his higher OBP and prior saying to get on base at the top of the lineup and maybe moving Gunnar into the 3 hole to give him an opportunity to hit with men on base. And I can even go along with Westburg in the cleanup spot though I would hate to move O’Hearn down in the lineup. But it is clear that those 5 are the best hitters on the team.

However, I do not agree with “phasing out” Mullins, Hays, and especially Santander. That’s 3 outfielders with MLB track records (Mullins and Santander have especially good track records). I don’t leave in the fantasy land that we can bring up prospects to outproduce solid MLB guys (right away). The empirical data in 2024 suggests that the notion is a pipe dream more than something that has a lot of merit. Very few (even top prospects in the last couple of years) come to MLB right away, hit the ground running, and been good offensive players.

I know fans don’t like hearing this, but it takes time. Elias’ philosophy of “one acclimating young player/prospect/rookie at a time” appears to be the most prudent approach.

Our best/most realistic hope for improvement this season IMO lies with 2 things - 1) Finding a a guy or two at the back end of the pen who can get strikeouts consistently/nail things down. 2) One or two of the veteran outfielders breaking out of their slumps and getting things going. 3) Mateo continuing to be a functional offensive player at the bottom of the order. (That last one is particularly hard for me to say/admit because of how much I love Holliday. But right now he is not ready to contribute at the MLB level. And that’s okay because he’s still on 20).

[Bahama O's Fan]

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-mookie-betts-lead-second-2024-mvp-award-poll?partnerId=it-20240521-9913924-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20240521-9913924-mlb-1-A&lctg=225315104

 

Article about MVP race. What do those two have or do that Gunnar doesn't?

[Bemorewins]

Now back to Gunnar, Gunnar is in the midst of most likely the greatest individual season in Orioles history. And we have 21/22 pages on him and what 80 on Holliday? 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

 Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

Mullins would be perfect for this if he would hit to his career average. Once Holliday comes up, start him and Mullins 8-9. Once Holliday hits, he can be the leadoff hitter of the future with Adley and Gunnar 2-3. 

A 9-1-2 of Mullins-Holliday-Gunnar would be pretty nice. 

I agree, Gunnar has to be 1 or 2. Every spot you move him down reduces his predicted AB's by 11% and we don't want that. Better to have him hit more times even if it costs a few base runners than more baserunners/fewer ABs.

[Bemorewins]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What if Adley wants an 8-10 year deal but Gunnar wants a 13-15 year deal?  That’s probably the reality.  

I would do both. Adley is 25 and looks like a Buster Posey kind of trajectory/career type. Obviously, by the back end of that deal (last 2-3 years) he will probably not be doing as much/the bulk of the catching (especially on a 10 year deal), to retain faces of your franchise/potential Hall of Fame players (at least Orioles hall of Famers), and maybe guys who one day get a statue out at the stadium is worth it to me. Especially considering how long it’s been since we had ANY. Ripken is the last one (over 20 years ago). 

Gunnar is a no brainer IMO! He is 22 and already one of the best players in the sport. He may someday go down as the greatest player to ever wear an Orioles jersey. It is imperative IMO that you never let him walk out of the door (especially in his prime). IMO that would be franchise malpractice. It is extremely unlikely that you could find a player to replace him (be anywhere close to as good). He may be on pace for the greatest Orioles offensive season ever AND he’s only 22!

[Safelykept]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle).  That is just over 1/4 of the season.   Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning.  He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season.  So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season.    Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

Well said he only bats lead off once. The lead off Home Runs are partially a product of him batting with nobody on base( pitchers more inclined to challenge) If they adjust the OBP will go up and so will the steals. As far as a fifth AB who else would you want up, plus whoever is PH for our # 8 or 9 has Gunner in front of them.  

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Well said he only bats lead off once. The lead off Home Runs are partially a product of him batting with nobody on base( pitchers more inclined to challenge) If they adjust the OBP will go up and so will the steals. As far as a fifth AB who else would you want up, plus whoever is PH for our # 8 or 9 has Gunner in front of them.  

Correct on the last part.  I almost mentioned that.  Apart from having the bench bats replace lower lineup guys, the lead-off hitter also has the best chance of seeing the SP a third time through the line up.  

Edited May 21 by emmett16

[Aristotelian]

Sadly, I feel like the window to extend Gunnar may have passed. Not to point fingers: we have no idea whether Gunnar and his agent ever had any intention of signing at any price, and who knows what constraints Angelos had put on Elias. Just seems like the opportunity for any kind of team friendly deal is fading rapidly.