Gunnar Henderson 2024

[Say O!]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wait!  ZIPS wants a do over?   

Well I think Szymborski would say those ZIPs numbers are 50th percentile but even the 80th percentile had Gunnar at 148 OPS+ and 6.2 fWAR (link to O’s preseason write up on fangraphs)

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I was listening to the game on XM last night and wondering if Gray was trying something new against Gunnar with the pitch around as a lead off hitter. I'm not saying that the league won't challenge him as they obviously pitched to him the rest of the game, but I think he's going to get a bunch of walks if he's patient enough. He's going to get to the point of seeing maybe 1 decent pitch an AB. All just speculation on my part though.

Yep, the league has already started to pitch Gunnar more carefully (on all ABs not just leadoff) and we are seeing his walk totals go up over last two weeks.

In terms of seeing 1 pitch to hit an AB, Gunnar was definitely sitting on 2 strike sweeper from Gray last night that he deposited in CF bleachers.  You just don’t go oppo taco on outside edge breaking ball on one of the best spinners in the league.  Love how Gunnar is hunting certain pitches now.  Thought the same thing given the swings he put on Kirby’s split for HR (Sunday). 

Edited May 21 by Say O!

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Well I think Szymborski would say those ZIPs numbers are 50th percentile but even the 80th percentile had Gunnar at 148 OPS+ and 6.2 fWAR (link to O’s preseason write up on fangraphs)

I still read it as “we predicted this before the season but now we’re predicting this”.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wait!  ZIPS wants a do over?   

ZiPS recalibrates the rest of season every day for every player.  And I’d guess that for younger players like Gunnar, how a guy does over the first quarter of the season can have a pretty big impact on the rest of season projection, because that’s a significant proportion of Gunnar’s entire career to date.  I’d expect the projections for older players change less.  

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

Gunnar’s giving us something to dream on and certainly on pace for one of the best seasons in O’s history, but “greatest” is such a high bar

• 91 Ripken = 10.6 fWAR // 11.0 bWAR (MVP)
• 84 Ripken = 9.8 fWAR // 10.0 bWAR
• 83 Ripken = 8.5 fWAR // 8.2 bWAR (MVP)
• 66 Frank = 8.2 fWAR // 7.7 bWAR (MVP, triple crown)
• 64 Brooks = 8.1 fWAR // 8.1 bWAR (MVP)

Link to O’s single season leaders for position players on bb-reference

Now if narrowing to best season since Ripken’s historic 1991 campaign, the competition there is arguably (ignoring pitchers, ie Mussina)

• 15 Machado = 6.6 fWAR // 7.5 bWAR
• 96 Brady = 6.9 fWAR // 6.9 bWAR
• 08 Markakis = 6.1 fWAR // 7.4 bWAR
• 13 Crush = 7.0 fWAR // 7.1 bWAR

It is interesting that Chris Davis‘s career WAR is only 11.8 so aside from that one splendid season he was pretty mediocre.

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

It is interesting that Chris Davis‘s career WAR is only 11.8 so aside from that one splendid season he was pretty mediocre.

He had three seasons where he was clearly above average: 2013, 2015, 2016. '13 he was one of the better players in baseball.

He had a bunch of seasons where he wasn't particularly productive and/or didn't play a lot.

And he had about four years where he played over 100 games and was clearly below replacement.

I don't know if mediocre is the right word. He had wild variations in his level of performance.

Edited May 21 by DrungoHazewood

[Philip]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He had three seasons where he was clearly above average: 2013, 2015, 2016. '13 he was one of the better players in baseball.

He had a bunch of seasons where he wasn't particularly productive and/or didn't play a lot.

And he had about four years where he played over 100 games and was clearly below replacement.

I don't know if mediocre is the right word. He had wild variations in his level of performance.

Well, when you have 11.8 WaR for a career that spans 12 years, and one season is 7.0, that doesn’t leave much for the others. Davis had seven seasons of 520+ ABs, and even spread among just those seasons, there’s not much left over. “Wild variations in performance,” is certainly accurate. So is “one great season, a couple good ones, and a bunch of meh.”

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, when you have 11.8 WaR for a career that spans 12 years, and one season is 7.0, that doesn’t leave much for the others. Davis had seven seasons of 520+ ABs, and even spread among just those seasons, there’s not much left over. “Wild variations in performance,” is certainly accurate. So is “one great season, a couple good ones, and a bunch of meh.”

I’d call 2015 pretty excellent.  It got him a $161 mm contract. 2017 forward was way worse than meh.  Put it this way: if Davis had retired after 2016, he would have had 17.4 rWAR.  He went -5.7 rWAR from there.  That’s incredibly rare.  

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d call 2015 pretty excellent.  It got him a $161 mm contract. 2017 forward was way worse than meh.  Put it this way: if Davis had retired after 2016, he would have had 17.4 rWAR.  He went -5.7 rWAR from there.  That’s incredibly rare.  

Thanks for the clarification, I had forgotten that you can lose WAR. I was actually pretty surprised to find his career results were so low, although he was negative defensively for his whole career, which also surprised me.

[banks703]

In a traditional/historical sense, Gunnar would more likely reside in the 3, 4 or 5 spots in the lineup. But this new-age baseball that we have seen evolve over the last few years does seem to place more of a priority on getting your best hitters the most ABs. As others have mentioned, look at Soto in his career, look at Ohtani, etc. But what hasn't been mentioned (that I've seen, maybe I missed it) is that this new era of baseball also shows us that a sub .200 hitter can be successful in the leadoff spot when they mash like Schwarber does for the Phils.

I think it's just as likely that Hyder keeps penciling in Gunnar in the top spot because Gunnar feels comfortable there but also because of his ability to set the table for the rest of the lineup to start the game. That is really what the leadoff guy's job is to do. He's lead off with a homer what, five times this year? That's five games where the O's were on the board just one batter into their turn to hit. For a younger lineup like the O's have now, I think it's extremely important that they use whatever advantage they think they have as early in the game as possible. We've seen them struggle to score runs early in a lot of the games this year. They don't ever seem to lay down but battling from behind is not the ideal position to be, especially at the frequency that has been so far this year. I suspect that increased pressure may eventually catch up with them. So, yeah, if Gunnar is their best power hitter but also gives the team the best opportunity to score early, I'm fine with him hitting first in the order even if it means fewer guys on base when he's at the plate. 

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

LOL at Russo asking "How'd he do in the Texas series?" And then Costas one-upping him by not remembering which round the series was in. 

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

"And how'd he do against Texas in that three game playoff series?"

Dawg, he hit .500 with a HR and 1.288 OPS. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

"And how'd he do against Texas in that three game playoff series?"

Dawg, he hit .500 with a HR and 1.288 OPS. 

But did he pitch 3 shutouts? Clearly we lost because of him!

[Spy Fox]

As for the actual debate going on in that clip, I'm not sure I'd put Gunnar above Soto in a "top right now" or "who do you want the next 5 years (contract aside)" list quite yet. Soto is in his seventh straight year of nothing but excellence, despite being only about 2.5 years older than Gunnar. I don't know if he's the greatest at any one point, since he's less of a 5-tool guy, but I think Soto is the safest bet there is to be ongoingly great for the next several years. Besides maybe Ohtani. 

Anyway, the fact that Gunnar is pretty firmly in this group of top 5-10 players in the league is fantastic. 

Edited May 24 by Spy Fox