Grayson Rodriguez 2024

[Just Regular]

It is about three quarters of a season since Good Results Grayson (h/t @Spy Fox) arrived, and after last night's good work he's 5th in ERA across that stretch.

Skubal, Lugo, Sonny Gray, Wheeler and him.

Seth Lugo has maybe earned an edge on Cole Ragans to be the favorite to oppose the AL East's 2nd place finisher in Game 1 of an ALWC series assuming those teams earn the #4 and #5 spots in the 2024 AL.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a proven fact that Ks don’t up pitch counts. 
 

You know what his pitch counts?  Base runners. Hits and walks. If you pitch to contact, you increase the chances of a batted ball becoming a hit and then having to face more batters, which in turns increases the pitch count.

Baseball is a complex game.  There are games where the pitcher is getting ahead consistently and forcing hitters to hit pitches in spots that induce weak contact.   There are other games where the pitcher is laying it in there and getting clobbered.  I believe the research shows that on average, there’s no strong correlation between K rate and P/IP.   But those are averages, and don’t necessarily tell you about individual pitchers or individual games.  

Just to take Grayson as an example, he has made 10 starts and struck out at least 7 batters six times.  In those games, he’s averaged 15.7 pitches per inning.  In his four lower strikeout games, he’s averaged 15.3 pitches.  
 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Baseball is a complex game.  There are games where the pitcher is getting ahead consistently and forcing hitters to hit pitches in spots that induce weak contact.   There are other games where the pitcher is laying it in there and getting clobbered.  I believe the research shows that on average, there’s no strong correlation between K rate and P/IP.   But those are averages, and don’t necessarily tell you about individual pitchers or individual games.  

Just to take Grayson as an example, he has made 10 starts and struck out at least 7 batters six times.  In those games, he’s averaged 15.7 pitches per inning.  In his four lower strikeout games, he’s averaged 15.3 pitches.  
 

I mean, we see high K/low pitch count games all the time. To say Ks drive up pitch counts just isn’t correct. Can it be a contributing factor at times?  Yea of course but it’s not THE reason and it’s proven wrong all the time.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, we see high K/low pitch count games all the time. To say Ks drive up pitch counts just isn’t correct. Can it be a contributing factor at times?  Yea of course but it’s not THE reason and it’s proven wrong all the time.

Like I said, on average it’s basically uncorrelated.  But averages don’t tell you everything.  

[dystopia]

Bradish had 6 K’s in 2.2 innings the other day, so getting a lot of your outs on strikeouts doesn’t mean you pitched well either. 

[BRobinsonfan]

11 hours ago, interloper said:

Great start!

And in a "must-win" game!  

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Bradish had 6 K’s in 2.2 innings the other day, so getting a lot of your outs on strikeouts doesn’t mean you pitched well either. 

No one said it did..but it’s simple math and thought.

A batted ball is an out, on average, 70-73% of the time.  A strikeout is an out over 99% of the time.

If you miss bats, they don’t make contact which means they can’t get hits.

So no, it’s not everything but it’s probably the main thing.

If you are a lower K guy but can supplement that by not waking anyone, that can be a big help.

 

[Aristotelian]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, we see high K/low pitch count games all the time. To say Ks drive up pitch counts just isn’t correct. Can it be a contributing factor at times?  Yea of course but it’s not THE reason and it’s proven wrong all the time.

K's may be negatively correlated with pitch count but causality is complex. Grayson is not a statistician so maybe what he is trying to say is that he isnt trying to pitch outside of the zone in order to get K's (which seems like a bad strategy and would risk driving up counts). 

 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a proven fact that Ks don’t up pitch counts. 
 

You know what his pitch counts?  Base runners. Hits and walks. If you pitch to contact, you increase the chances of a batted ball becoming a hit and then having to face more batters, which in turns increases the pitch count.

Yeah, it is not a proven fact. It’s a way more complicated question than a simple statistical analysis is capable of evaluating. There is going to be an optimal strikeout rate for every pitcher.  Above that rate, they are going to be looking to be too fine with their pitches and miss too much. Below that rate, they are going to be giving up outs for hits.  15 years ago you could point to some studies in the public sphere and be pretty confident that major-league teams were behind. There is no chance that you can say that now  Even writes at places like Fangraphs routinely say there are clubs that are way ahead of the SABR community.  The Orioles being as data driven as they are likely are one of these teams. 

[Just Regular]

A stellar performance that will be hidden by a line middling in some respects.

The playoff results are a bad memory, but he was also dominant in Game 148 against these Rays last year when the division race was still hot.

[Chaka Garcia]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A stellar performance that will be hidden by a line middling in some respects.

The playoff results are a bad memory, but he was also dominant in Game 148 against these Rays last year when the division race was still hot.

Really underrated, could potentially lead the staff in wins. Hopefully, he gets selected to the all star team - top notch pitcher. 

[Chavez Ravine]

Awesome game by Grayson today. He was spotting the fastball and toying with its velocity, the change was devastating, and everything else was working. Minor critiques: he couldn’t put away Lowe in the 6th, and those long at bats. But  both of those feed the lurking criticism that he can’t put away top notch dudes in a pinch. Whatever. It’s a pleasant abstraction to discuss in June as we slouch onward.

[Fiver6565]

44 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Awesome game by Grayson today. He was spotting the fastball and toying with its velocity, the change was devastating, and everything else was working. Minor critiques: he couldn’t put away Lowe in the 6th, and those long at bats. But  both of those feed the lurking criticism that he can’t put away top notch dudes in a pinch. Whatever. It’s a pleasant abstraction to discuss in June as we slouch onward.

Sometimes the hitters deserve credit too. Lowe in particular fought a big time fight in his AB. TB is down a bit but some of these guys are still the same players that win 99 last year after all. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

Sometimes the hitters deserve credit too. Lowe in particular fought a big time fight in his AB. TB is down a bit but some of these guys are still the same players that win 99 last year after all. 

Absolutely good AB by Lowe but after attacking the strike zone the first / innings he goes 3-0 on the first guy and walks him and then starts throwing 58 foot breaking balls.  After Lowe got the hit he yelled "This is effing BS".  No one to blame but yourself for overthrowing the breaking pitch and walking the lead off hitter.

Brian Roberts, before Lowe's AB said this is what separates the aces from everyone else.   With the stuff and command he had today he needs to close out that 6th inning.

[Frobby]

Great five innings from GRod.  While the Orioles were batting in the 6th, they showed him in the dugout and his face looked very flushed and he was breathing surprisingly heavily.  He’d just been cruising for three innings of very low pitch counts, and the Trop is climate controlled, so it surprised me that he looked a bit piqued.  Maybe it was a physical thing, maybe it was his reaction to the fact that he had a shot at a Perfecto.  In any event, he just wasn’t the same pitcher when he came out for the sixth inning.  By the time he got to Lowe, he’d thrown 20 pitches and had the deflating experience of losing his perfect game and then his no hitter.  By the time he was halfway through the Lowe at bat, you could see his tank was on empty.  Lowe fouled off several good pitches and he finally made a mistake.  Luckily, not a real bad one, just enough to lose his shutout and leave it to someone else to finish the inning.  

So, was that a sign that GRod isn’t yet a full-blown ace?  I’d say yes, but he still had an excellent outing and this experience is one to learn from.  And he did get a well-earned W.