Craig Kimbrel 2024

[Rbiggs2525]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

This makes it sound like it was Holliday’s fault when it was really due to positioning. 

I do believe a more veteran player makes that play more times than not. No blame for Holiday at all due to playing a brand new position. Thought Kimbrel found it ironic that the ground ball would have been perfect to double play depth. 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, SteveA said:

That means that 51% of the time it should be converted to an out.   

Not sure but I don’t think it means Holliday had a 51% chance of making the play.  Defense and positioning is not considered.   It’s just the exit velocity and launch angle.

Expected Batting Average is more indicative of a player's skill than regular batting average, as xBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.

[DirtyBird]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A ground ball at 105.9 mph.  He takes two steps and the ball is 6 feet away from him when it’s passing him.   If he was Superman and could get from that position to completely prone in 0.0 seconds he might have gotten a glove on it.

https://www.mlb.com/video/william-contreras-singles-on-a-ground-ball-to-right-fielder-colton-cowser?q=GamePk %3D [747056] AND PitchSpeed %3D {{ 36%2C 105 }} Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0

P.S.  That ball had a XBA of .490!

 

Adam Frazier would have made the play

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I've been really impressed with Kimbrel this year. Even with Kimbrel's fastball not reaching the upper 90's so far his location has been great along with his pitch selection.

Edited April 16 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I've been really impressed with Kimbrel this year. Even with Kimbrel's fastball not reaching the upper 90's so far his location has been great along with his pitch selection.

I believe he touched 96 on Sunday.  On a 2nd consecutive day he was 94-95 today.   For sure, this strike throwing version has been super impressive so far.   The results are Mountainesque.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, SteveA said:

That means that 51% of the time it should be converted to an out.   

No it doesn’t.  xBA is a function of exit velocity and launch angle and takes no account for the direction in which the baseball is hit.  A ball hit directly at a fielder is treated exactly the same as a ball that perfectly dissects the position of two fielders.  
 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No it doesn’t.  xBA is a function of exit velocity and launch angle and takes no account for the direction in which the baseball is hit.  A ball hit directly at a fielder is treated exactly the same as a ball that perfectly dissects the position of two fielders.  
 

So bringing up that stat in a discussion about whether Holliday could/should have gotten to the ball was utterly irrelevant in the first place.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

So bringing up that stat in a discussion about whether Holliday could/should have gotten to the ball was utterly irrelevant in the first place.

I wouldn’t say utterly irrelevant.  Just incomplete information.  

[Malike]

Gunnar murdered a ball off the bat at 110 that ended up being a really routine groundout because it hit the mound and slowed down. The xBA was still .590 on that play.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

Gunnar murdered a ball off the bat at 110 that ended up being a really routine groundout because it hit the mound and slowed down. The xBA was still .590 on that play.

He’s been murdering a lot of balls.  99th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th in hard hit rate.  He’s been a little unlucky, with a .331 xOBA, .361 xwOBA going into last night.  

[Say O!]

Today’s fangraphs article on Kimbrel’s early season dominance.  Ben Clemens touches on Kimbrel’s historical numbers before dissecting his 2024 pitches, where Kimbrel is throwing his breaking ball with more sweep and less drop than prior iterations.  Notably the swinging strike% for his curveball has dropped off dramatically, but Clemens points out that several have been called strikes and fooled the batters.

Quote

To be fair, our pitching models still like it quite a lot. They’re still into his fastball, too, even though it’s lost a few ticks from its peak. It turns out that the plan of throwing a fastball with great shape high in the zone and snapping off a big-movement curveball below it still plays even if Kimbrel can’t execute quite as well as he did early in his career. I just don’t think he’ll continue to bamboozle hitters into leaving their bat on their shoulders. That will probably come with more swinging strikes, but it will inevitably come with some loud contact as well. Right now, his plan is perfect, but the other side will inevitably make adjustments. They’ll have to; he’s just been too good to ignore.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[Frobby]

Gutsy performance by Kimbrel there, though he nearly gave me a heart attack in the process.  The last two pitches to Trout were absolutely perfect.  

[RZNJ]

Kimbrel was going to eat Joe Adell alive and hits him 0-2.  Then a blooper and a walk.  It felt like that one was getting away.  Great job to get it back together.   

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Kimbrel was going to eat Joe Adell alive and hits him 0-2.  Then a blooper and a walk.  It felt like that one was getting away.  Great job to get it back together.   

If there’s anything I hate, it’s an 0-2 HBP.  Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.  And then that doink of a hit.  Frustrating, but Kimbrel sucked it up and got it done.