Colton Cowser 2024

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I'm just trying to find a way to get fewer poor-hitting outfielders on the team at the same time. The team isn't releasing or trading Mullins or Hays, so the other path is using Cowser's option in order to try and find some offense.

I mean, are you seeing anything positive when you watch his ABs? Or do you just pull up his statcast page during his ABs to make yourself feel better about what you're seeing in the games? 

I didn’t see anything yesterday.  He had 2 singles, both hard hit balls, on Saturday.  He was called for a swinging strike vs Gil that I didn’t think he offered at either but it was close (would have been a walk)

I think saying he looks lost is completely ridiculous. Now, one thing Malike said that I do agree with is that I think he’s looking for off speed stuff now and is fouling off good fastballs that he should be doing more with.

But he’s not lost. He’s still having good at bats.  Still seeing a lot of pitches. Still hitting the ball hard.

The Ks are an issue..zero people have said differently.  Of course, Gunnar leads the AL in Ks I believe and it’s obviously ok for him…in other words, you can still hit well if you K a lot.

He has also mainly played vs lefties recently and while I think he should play vs some lefties, playing him only against lefties doesn’t help at all. 
 

He should play in CF 4-5 games a week and Mullins can play the rest…just as Kjerstad should be playing 4-5 times a week.

[banks703]

33 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't know. Maybe? Elias optioned Kjerstad after a rough start and some bad defense, tried Stowers, then brought Kjerstad back, then Stowers again after the injury. Not sure why Cowser is any different. Cycle them all until one of them sticks or at least gets hot for a month. 

The other thing is they've been benching Cowser lately, so you might as well get him every day ABs at AAA and emphasize that he needs to make adjustments. If he doesn't, well, you have a decent defensive CFer I guess, but that's still extremely disappointing. 

CC is different because he's a Gold-Glove (and according to the advanced numbers he could be in the conversation for Platinum-Glove) level defender. Neither of Stowers or HK offer that, especially not HK. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

It's not about him going back down to develop. Obviously he's got nothing else to learn down there.

It's about hiding him for awhile and having him really work on adjustments with every day ABs (which he's not getting right now), and seeing if someone else can get hot in the meantime. It's about doing anything you can to win games. If Stowers or whomever can get hot for a week or two, that's more important right now than continuing to run a guy out there who looks lost. 

If it’s only about winning games, why not option Mullins?  Why not get Mayo up for Mateo or Urias?  Why play all these vets as often as they are  during these terrible slumps many have been in?  Why play McCann so much?

None of you guys want to talk about that stuff. You want to put all the blame on the best defensive player we have, who also has excellent speed and a guy who has a lot of batted ball data that suggests he’s doing better than stats show. 
 

There is no understanding of development. It’s just, be good right now or go away. But that logic doesn’t apply across the board.  The inconsistency and hypocrisy by people on this board is astounding. It’s like listening to a local call in show.

[LGOrioles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

At this point, no amount of good posts will get these people to see what they don’t want to see.  

Put into clearer terms, 20 CF’s have more than 450 PA’s since the ASB last year. Mullins is tied for 18th in WAR (with Adam Duvall). Only Jack Suwinski has a lower WAR (and wRC+) in that timeframe. 

I don’t know if it’s the fact that people have turned on Cowser after his past few months or that they want to cling to Mullins performance from 2021-2022. But for all the begging on this board to play/promote prospects more, this argument to keep playing one of the worst CF’s in the league the past year over Cowser is pretty wild. For all the talk of Cowser struggling since May 1st, he has a 0.7 WAR in 205 PA’s since then (tied with Langford). Mullins is at -0.1 WAR in 183 PA’s in that same time frame.

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's not about him going back down to develop. Obviously he's got nothing else to learn down there.

It's about hiding him for awhile and having him really work on adjustments with every day ABs (which he's not getting right now), and seeing if someone else can get hot in the meantime. It's about doing anything you can to win games. If Stowers or whomever can get hot for a week or two, that's more important right now than continuing to run a guy out there who looks lost. 

As much as it bothers you (and all of us as fans) I promise you that Mike Elias, Hyde and the rest of the organization are less concerned about the right now and more concerned about the long-term development of the player(s) and what is in the best interest of the team for an October run.

I understand the frustration but we're poking at a rookie player who is excelling in several areas (defense and baserunning, chase rate, etc.) who is not hitting as well as we all would like him to be hitting. The All-Star catcher disappearing for two weeks, the All-Star infielder disappearing for two weeks, the All-Star RF disappearing for two weeks, the pitching deficiencies, etc. etc. are more concerning to me than CC struggling through half of July. He's on pace to hit close to 20 homers in his rookie campaign, could win a GG in the outfield this year and is (surprisingly?!) looking like a rookie at the plate a lot. I am not remotely surprised by that.  

[interloper]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If it’s only about winning games, why not option Mullins?  Why not get Mayo up for Mateo or Urias?  Why play all these vets as often as they are  during these terrible slumps many have been in?  Why play McCann so much?

None of you guys want to talk about that stuff. You want to put all the blame on the best defensive player we have, who also has excellent speed and a guy who has a lot of batted ball data that suggests he’s doing better than stats show. 
 

There is no understanding of development. It’s just, be good right now or go away. But that logic doesn’t apply across the board.  The inconsistency and hypocrisy by people on this board is astounding. It’s like listening to a local call in show.

Huh? I agree they should option Mullins, but I'm dealing in realities here. They won't. We all know that. I agree they should stop playing McCann as much. They won't. I agree they should have called up Mayo weeks if not months ago. They didn't. 

And yes, the team needs to be good right now. Cowser has had all year to adjust and the kid simply has not. That speaks to a larger issue with the player - he's just not getting it, but he's plenty talented and smart enough to make adjustments. So what's the solution? He's a great defender. There's a lot to like in theory. It's unfortunate. There's no reason he shouldn't be a similar ML talent to Westburg even if he gets there a different way. 

If we didn't have so many blackholes with Mullins, Hays, McCann, Urias, and Mateo, then yeah I have no issue. But none of the rest of those guys are going anywhere apparently. It's frustrating as hell. Hopefully one of them is traded or DFA'd around the deadline. 

[ledzepp8]

56 minutes ago, interloper said:

Huh? I agree they should option Mullins, but I'm dealing in realities here. They won't. We all know that. I agree they should stop playing McCann as much. They won't. I agree they should have called up Mayo weeks if not months ago. They didn't. 

And yes, the team needs to be good right now. Cowser has had all year to adjust and the kid simply has not. That speaks to a larger issue with the player - he's just not getting it, but he's plenty talented and smart enough to make adjustments. So what's the solution? He's a great defender. There's a lot to like in theory. It's unfortunate. There's no reason he shouldn't be a similar ML talent to Westburg even if he gets there a different way. 

If we didn't have so many blackholes with Mullins, Hays, McCann, Urias, and Mateo, then yeah I have no issue. But none of the rest of those guys are going anywhere apparently. It's frustrating as hell. Hopefully one of them is traded or DFA'd around the deadline. 

I don't think this is really fair. Mullins and McCann are really the only blackholes out of that list. Mullins is basically a part time player now and that's probably more to do with his seniority than anything else. McCann is a backup catcher. Do I wish he didn't play as much? Sure. Do I wish he was better? Sure. But he's a backup for a reason. Hays, Urias, and Mateo are all more or less league average and aside from Mateo, these are players that have basically lost their starting roles. Would I prefer if they were replaced? Yeah probably. But I've said it before that you're probably hard pressed to find a GM that's going to just replace a large portion of players that contributed to a team that won 101 games the season before and is in first place this season with the most wins in the AL.

Yeah, it would be awesome to have a lineup full of Adley's or Westburg's or Gunnar's, but that's just not realistic.

[interloper]

I think what's frustrating me the most is there's a contingent of fans who have said, hey this guy is striking out an insane amount at AAA, maybe that's a problem. And those fans got gaslit by folks saying none of that actually mattered, he's going to be fine, look at his OBP, look at his hard-hit. 

And then sure enough it's been a problem in all by 1 month of his ML tenure, and I'm still being told his k-rate doesn't matter. He's hitting .220 with a .309 OBP and 30 more strikeouts than hits. He's got a sub-100 OPS+ for every month except April and he's currently rocking a 26 OPS+ halfway through July.

26! 

And this isn't a #22 pick, this is a #5 pick. He's 24.5 years old. It's absolutely disappointing and worse than that, it was predictable based on his minor league numbers. 

Fortunately, he's usable due to his defense and his occasional streaky pop. I'm rooting for the guy to do well, obviously, but I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't been disappointing just because 29-year-old Cedric Mullins has been MORE disappointing. 

Edited July 15 by interloper

[Ohfan67]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

I think what's frustrating me the most is there's a contingent of fans who have said, hey this guy is striking out an insane amount at AAA, maybe that's a problem. And those fans got gaslit by folks saying none of that actually mattered, he's going to be fine, look at his OBP, look at his hard-hit. 

And then sure enough it's been a problem in all by 1 month of his ML tenure, and I'm still being told his k-rate doesn't matter. He's hitting .220 with a .309 OBP and 30 more strikeouts than hits. He's got a sub-100 OPS+ for every month except April and he's currently rocking a 26 OPS+ halfway through July.

26! 

And this isn't a #22 pick, this is a #5 pick. He's 24.5 years old. It's absolutely disappointing and worse than that, it was predictable based on his minor league numbers. 

Fortunately, he's usable due to his defense and his occasional streaky pop. I'm rooting for the guy to do well, obviously, but I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't been disappointing just because 29-year-old Cedric Mullins has been MORE disappointing. 

Are you worried about Mayo’s k rate at Norfolk? It’s actually slightly higher than Colton’s strikeout rate at Norfolk last year. If not, then are you gaslighting other posters? 

Edited July 15 by Ohfan67

[LGOrioles]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

I think what's frustrating me the most is there's a contingent of fans who have said, hey this guy is striking out an insane amount at AAA, maybe that's a problem. And those fans got gaslit by folks saying none of that actually mattered, he's going to be fine, look at his OBP, look at his hard-hit. 

And then sure enough it's been a problem in all by 1 month of his ML tenure, and I'm still being told his k-rate doesn't matter. He's hitting .220 with a .309 OBP and 30 more strikeouts than hits. He's got a sub-100 OPS+ for every month except April and he's currently rocking a 26 OPS+ halfway through July.

26! 

And this isn't a #22 pick, this is a #5 pick. He's 24.5 years old. It's absolutely disappointing and worse than that, it was predictable based on his minor league numbers. 

Fortunately, he's usable due to his defense and his occasional streaky pop. I'm rooting for the guy to do well, obviously, but I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't been disappointing just because 29-year-old Cedric Mullins has been MORE disappointing. 

Would you rather play a 24.5 year old top 5 pick who consistently hits the ball hard, has a .309 OBP, .418 SLG, and 1 month with an OPS+ over 100?

Or the almost 30 year old who has been replacement level the last calendar year, has some of the weakest batted ball data in the league, a .256 OBP, .373 SLG, and also 1 month with an OPS+ over 100? Oh, and there’s also no huge defensive discrepancy in the 30 year old’s favor, the defensive metrics actually lean towards the 24.5 year old. 

The answer seems fairly obvious. Nobody is saying Cowser is perfect, he’s clearly not. But Mullins has been awful the past year, something that seems to not be taken into account in terms of arguments against Cowser. This would be a different story if Mullins were even close to a league average hitter, but he’s not. He’s 159th in wRC+ out of 166 batters with more than 450 PA’s since the ASB last year. 

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Would you rather play a 24.5 year old top 5 pick who consistently hits the ball hard, has a .309 OBP, .418 SLG, and 1 month with an OPS+ over 100?

Or the almost 30 year old who has been replacement level the last calendar year, has some of the weakest batted ball data in the league, a .256 OBP, .373 SLG, and also 1 month with an OPS+ over 100? Oh, and there’s also no huge defensive discrepancy in the 30 year old’s favor, the defensive metrics actually lean towards the 24.5 year old. 

The answer seems fairly obvious. Nobody is saying Cowser is perfect, he’s clearly not. But Mullins has been awful the past year, something that seems to not be taken into account in terms of arguments against Cowser. This would be a different story if Mullins were even close to a league average hitter, but he’s not. He’s 159th in wRC+ out of 166 batters with more than 450 PA’s since the ASB last year. 

What is his wRC+ over 368 PA's? I'm genuinely curious.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Would you rather play a 24.5 year old top 5 pick who consistently hits the ball hard, has a .309 OBP, .418 SLG, and 1 month with an OPS+ over 100?

Or the almost 30 year old who has been replacement level the last calendar year, has some of the weakest batted ball data in the league, a .256 OBP, .373 SLG, and also 1 month with an OPS+ over 100? Oh, and there’s also no huge defensive discrepancy in the 30 year old’s favor, the defensive metrics actually lean towards the 24.5 year old. 

The answer seems fairly obvious. Nobody is saying Cowser is perfect, he’s clearly not. But Mullins has been awful the past year, something that seems to not be taken into account in terms of arguments against Cowser. This would be a different story if Mullins were even close to a league average hitter, but he’s not. He’s 159th in wRC+ out of 166 batters with more than 450 PA’s since the ASB last year. 

I can’t say I’m crazy about either choice.  But right now, I just don’t like how Cowser looks at the plate.  Mullins had a vastly better June.  They’ve both been quite bad in July, but Cowser’s been a little worse and he looks worse right now.   That’s my opinion.  I believe in Cowser long term but I’m not at all happy with his current play and trust Mullins more.   

[LGOrioles]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

What is his wRC+ over 368 PA's? I'm genuinely curious.

Cowser has a 92 wRC+ in his career. Mullins has a 74 wRC+ since the 2023 ASB, in the time frame I was referencing. 

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t say I’m crazy about either choice.  But right now, I just don’t like how Cowser looks at the plate.  Mullins had a vastly better June.  They’ve both been quite bad in July, but Cowser’s been a little worse and he looks worse right now.   That’s my opinion.  I believe in Cowser long term but I’m not at all happy with his current play and trust Mullins more.   

I agree with this. I would rather see Cowser start on a daily basis than Mullins, but in the 9th yesterday I had more trust in Mullins pulling through. Cowser’s high leverage issues are a legitimate concern. 

[Malike]

Just now, LGOrioles said:

Cowser has a 92 wRC+ in his career. Mullins has a 74 wRC+ since the 2023 ASB, in the time frame I was referencing. 

Right, it's hard to compare 90 more PA's. Last week Cowser had a 115 wRC+ it's 105 now. Was just wondering where they are in relation to equal PAs. Cowsers fWAR is carried by his defense, which is fine, WAR is WAR, but it's down to 3.2 from 4.5 in a week. (oWAR).