Holliday called up!

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Please stop mentioning the eclipse. I'm still disappointed that I didn't gain any super powers.

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So they panicked at 6-4 with Westburg and Urías, basically our starters from last year, plus Mateo and Kemp?

No but I think the lack of hitting from those players, plus the blowback they were getting, plus Holliday tearing it up, forced their hand somewhat. 

[24fps]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

Between the three of them, Kjerstad, Norby and Stowers have 58 RBI over the last 10 games with five other players OPSing over 1.000.  That's a sick lineup.

[Warehouse]

I don't think Rubenstein ordered Holliday to play over Kemp like PA ordering Leo Gomez to play over Chris Sabo.  That would put the new partnership group's relationship with Elias at risk.  I also don't think it has to do with new ownership changing the financial calculus.  

I think it was about avoiding early lefties (and avoiding fan/media pushback about Jackson sitting vs. early lefties), getting him more reps at 2B given that the ball just didn't bounce his way that much during ST,  getting a couple more weeks to make sure Holliday was really fully ready and monitor the state of the AL ROY race, and also set things up so a single minimum-stay optional assignment later in the year bumps him below 1 YR service time (would only occur if he's struggling and not a factor in ROY race).  

I do think the timing might be different if we were in the National League with a more crowded ROY race (Jackson C., Jackson M., Yamamoto, Imanaga, Jared Jones, Kyle Harrison, etc.) vs. AL ROY landscape which is more open.  There's likely to be a much lower bar for Jackson to clear top 2 ROY in the AL, so there is less chance we actually get a 7th year by holding down until the weekend.  

The move is consistent with what I thought might happen (with the exception of being perplexed by signing of Kemp) so it doesn't require a lot of complicated theories.

Quote

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/51416-teheran-opts-out/?do=findComment&comment=3090386

On 3/24/2024 at 11:25 AM, Warehouse said:

The release of Wong also leaves open the possibility that Elias is considering promoting Holliday for the Boston series if he gets off to a strong start and makes adjustments to address his challenges vs. lefties.  

Elias has emphasized how much matchups in early games are influencing roster decisions.  We are likely to face at least three left starters in first nine games.  Holliday would likely sit and, thus, wouldn’t have the opportunity to implement needed adjustments vs lefties.

This approach would give Jackson about 9 games with Tides to refine his Second Base skills.  He’d likely face lefties Jacob Lopez and Mason Montgomery (or Joe Rock) in first two games vs Durham.  Then vs Charlotte he would likely face lefties Jake Eder and Jared Shuster.  This, four of Tides first eight games will likely be vs lefty starters.

If we promote Holliday by April 11, he’ll earn a full year of service time and qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  We would earn a pick if Holliday wins AL Rookie of the Year in 2024, or finishes in top 3 of AL MVP voting in 2024, 2025, or 2026.

Holding on to Wong doesn’t make a lot of sense if Holliday’s optional assignment is relatively short.  We face a lot of lefties early and we’ll lose Wong whenever Holliday is promoted.  

However, if plan is to keep Holliday down past super two in early June then releasing Wong is a curious move.  Elias has a strong preference to have righty and lefty options at all positions.  Urias isn’t a big splits guy and we’d potentially have Maton (if he makes it through waivers) and Vavra (once healed) with the Tides, but I’d be very surprised if Elias was comfortable with this setup for an extended period.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

I don't think Rubenstein ordered Holliday to play over Kemp like PA ordering Leo Gomez to play over Chris Sabo.  That would put the new partnership group's relationship with Elias at risk.  I also don't think it has to do with new ownership changing the financial calculus.  

I think it was about avoiding early lefties (and avoiding fan/media pushback about Jackson sitting vs. early lefties), getting him more reps at 2B given that the ball just didn't bounce his way that much during ST,  getting a couple more weeks to make sure Holliday was really fully ready and monitor the state of the AL ROY race, and also set things up so a single minimum-stay optional assignment later in the year bumps him below 1 YR service time (would only occur if he's struggling and not a factor in ROY race).  

I do think the timing might be different if we were in the National League with a more crowded ROY race (Jackson C., Jackson M., Yamamoto, Imanaga, Jared Jones, Kyle Harrison, etc.) vs. AL ROY landscape which is more open.  There's likely to be a much lower bar for Jackson to clear top 2 ROY in the AL, so there is less chance we actually get a 7th year by holding down until the weekend.  

The move is consistent with what I thought might happen (with the exception of being perplexed by signing of Kemp) so it doesn't require a lot of complicated theories.

Kudos man, you definitely nailed it. And I agree with your read on the reasoning behind the situation. 

Edited April 10 by interloper

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[UMDTerrapins]

48 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Between the three of them, Kjerstad, Norby and Stowers have 58 RBI over the last 10 games with five other players OPSing over 1.000.  That's a sick lineup.

You know what’s extra nuts to think about, Joey Ortiz, Cesar Prieto (.959 OPS IN AAA) and Darrell Hernaiz would otherwise be in Norfolk right now. 

Edited April 10 by UMDTerrapins

[rm5678]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is JH in the lineup tonight or has no one confirmed that yet?

I'll be shocked if he's not in the lineup tonight.

[LookinUp]

I'm up to two conspiracy theories/4D chess possibilities for Elias.

1. Contract negotiation: by holding out an extra year of control, Elias gained leverage. You could argue Tony Kemp was part of the bluff. What idiot would sign him for $1 million if he wasn't going to be around. Lol.

2. He IS manipulating service time, just not how you think: none of us are talking about Mayo or Kjerstad. By making the focus on Holliday, the entire conversation about these other two guys who are ready and tearing up AAA doesn't even exist. Then Elias promotes Holliday and suddenly the O's aren't viewed as an org that's manipulating service time, even though they're actively doing so right now.

I doubt either is the reason, but they might be edge case benefits to whatever Elias' strategy was.

 

[spleen1015]

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Got it.  So you think their thinking on that changed between the end of ST and now?

I think they were keeping their options open til the very last minute then made the decision with as much data as possible. I think it was a close enough call that two weeks of data on both Jackson and the Texas guys made a difference

[Orioles West]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias is very available and pretty much a straight shooter with the media, but let's face it, there are things he's just not going to say. I think sometimes people think if you criticize someone over something yu don't like them. That's the furthest thing from the truth.

He makes some headscratching moves sometimes, but in the end, the results are what matters and it's clear after 101 season the results are pretty darn good.

Agreed on all counts. I wasn't concerned about your critique, Elias is awesome, but he ain't perfect. I was curious about your take on his overall transparency, which you clarified. That aside, it will be interesting to see how Elias has handled JH, whether it helps or harms the kid's long term relationship with the O's. Kemp is just a whiff, no matter how much I try to make sense of it.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, spleen1015 said:

Please stop mentioning the eclipse. I'm still disappointed that I didn't gain any super powers.

How do you know? Did you try thinking hard underwater to talk to the sea creatures yet? You don't know until you've tried it!

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Orioles West said:

Agreed on all counts. I wasn't concerned about your critique, Elias is awesome, but he ain't perfect. I was curious about your take on his overall transparency, which you clarified. That aside, it will be interesting to see how Elias has handled JH, whether it helps or harms the kid's long term relationship with the O's. Kemp is just a whiff, no matter how much I try to make sense of it.

Kemp served his purpose of buying time for Holliday without burning a Norby option. It can't be a whiff if there was no swing.

[interloper]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Kemp served his purpose of buying time for Holliday without burning a Norby option. It can't be a whiff if there was no swing.

While I get this, you could have just held onto McKenna or Nevin, who would have been a decent option against all those LHP. And then just DFA for Holliday.

I think it was really about Kemp's ability to play both IF and OF, if I had to guess. That's getting REALLY in the weeds with versatility if you're Elias/Hyde, but this is the same combo who went with 3 catchers at seemingly random times last season for whatever reason.