Is Our Young Players Somewhat Overrated?

[ORIOLE33]

I like both, but Gunnar's average spends way too much time in the lower 200's and I expected a little more from Adley, particularly power. 
 

I'm not in any way suggesting that we move on, but am I the only one that's getting tired of these highly touted phenoms coming up and being only good and not great? 

[survivedc]

This is a good after midnight on a Saturday thread.

[Billy F-Face3]

I think fans get 'shiny new object syndrome' easily. Too many expecting players that have never been in the Big Leagues to be Hall of Famers and then quickly realize they placed too many expectations on them once they arrive. See Jackson Holliday. Everybody talking about how he should be up and it's a travesty he didn't break with the team. Now that he's up and struggling in his adjustment phase, alot of fans starting to say to send him back down.

People need to learn to be more patient on both sides of the issue. You can't YoYo players around.

Baseball is hard.

[Frobby]

I don’t think Gunnar and Adley are overrated at all.  Adley’s been worth 10.1 rWAR/11.3 fWAR in less than two full seasons in the big leagues.  Gunnar’s been worth 7.5 rWAR/6.1 fWAR in about 1.25 seasons.  Would you have started this thread if the two weren’t off to a slightly cold start in the first 14 games of the year?

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Gunnar and Adley are overrated at all.  Adley’s been worth 10.1 rWAR/11.3 fWAR in less than two full seasons in the big leagues.  Gunnar’s been worth 7.5 rWAR/6.1 fWAR in about 1.25 seasons.  Would you have started this thread if the two weren’t off to a slightly cold start in the first 14 games of the year?

It's unrealistic expectations.  Adley and Gunnar have both gone from hyped prospect to excellent ML player.  Either could realistically have an MVP in their future.

[Warehouse]

I guess it depends which young prospects and who is doing the rating that is over-rated. Adley (.384 xwOBA so far) and Gunnar (.365 xwOBA) are top-tier players.

If you surveyed knowledgeable O’s fans on expectations for Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, Kjerstad, Mayo, and Norby, I think the average aggregate projection would exceed what might be reasonable given historical prospect hit rates. However, I think this phenomenon is universal and would apply to how other teams’ fans rate their prospects.

[Warehouse]

In other words, every teams’ young players and prospects are “somewhat overrated” by their own fans.

[baltfan]

Take a look at Julio Rodriguez’s stats to date.  It’s early. 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriju01.shtml

 

[bpilktree]

I don’t think think Adley will ever wow you with his offensive stats.  He will be good and consistent each year but the bat doesn’t look plus plus.  He will still grade out well from the intangibles that a casual fan won’t see.  He will probably hit .270-.290/.360-.380 OBP 20-25 homers 100  and 80 RBI most years.  Which is perfectly fine and near the top for a catcher.  He is gonna be a lot better than other top picks at catcher recently like Joey Bart and Henry Davis.  

Gunnar will be a better offensive player in his career and still has to learn to get more even keel and not get so high or low.  He reminds me of Bobby Witt Jr both will run through a wall but have to learn to use their energy as a positive and nit a negative.  Witt has a little more experience so is about a year ahead of Gunnar but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see that jump Witt has had 2nd half of last  season this season or next from Gunnar.  

[Moose Milligan]

They are overrated. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t really think that, I just wanted @ORIOLE33to feel that he wasn’t alone on that scorching hot take for a second there. 

[ORIOLE33]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They are overrated. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t really think that, I just wanted @ORIOLE33to feel that he wasn’t alone on that scorching hot take for a second there. 

I didn't mean to hit a nerve. Lol From here and a few other places, I know I'm in the very small minority. But I'm still waiting for one of these guys to turn into a legitimate superstar that feared. I just don't see that with Adley and Gunnar. Good players, but nothing special. 

[milbest77]

Uh oh, an opinion!!! Watch out, the OH pitch forks and torches will hunt you down!!

[Too Tall]

They are neither overrated or underrated. They are at the beginning of their major league careers. Time and many more games will rate them. I like our guys, however. No predictions - just enjoy the ride.

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I didn't mean to hit a nerve. Lol From here and a few other places, I know I'm in the very small minority. But I'm still waiting for one of these guys to turn into a legitimate superstar that feared. I just don't see that with Adley and Gunnar. Good players, but nothing special. 

Manny Machado was worth 7.5 rWAR in his age 22 season, Gunnar 6.2. I'd say he's in okay company and on a decent trajectory. I can understand a little bit more with Rutsch but Gunnar looks to me very much on the superstar track, and I wonder if he won't age a bit better than Machado has (Machado's age 24-27 seasons were relatively average minus his 2015 contract year), or follow a more traditional trajectory. 

[Bemorewins]

11 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I like both, but Gunnar's average spends way too much time in the lower 200's and I expected a little more from Adley, particularly power. 
 

I'm not in any way suggesting that we move on, but am I the only one that's getting tired of these highly touted phenoms coming up and being only good and not great? 

You do know that Gunnar was rookie of the year last year right? You do know that it’s not even 3 full weeks into the season right? You do know that Cowser has been the best performing rookie in baseball BY FAR this season right? You do know Grayson and Westburg are doing well so far this season right?