A look at the Orioles by month -- 2024

[Frobby]

Back by (my) popular demand!

March/April 2024

19-10 record

11-6 at home

8-4 on the road

5-0 vs. AL East

2-4 in one-run games

1-2 in extra innings

Batting

5.41 runs per game was 1st in the AL

.254 BA was 2nd

.312  OBP was 7th

.450 SLG was 1st

.762 OPS was 1st

1.55 HR/game was 1st

.278/.320/.467 with RISP (286 PA, 255 AB, 71 H, 91 TOB, 119 TB) ( .787 OPS with RISP was 5th in the AL)

Pitching

3.68 ERA was 7th in the AL

4.10 runs allowed per game was 7th

1.17 HR/game was 10th lowest

3.60 starters' ERA was 6th

5.61 IP/Start was 2nd

3.81 bullpen ERA was 9th

9 saves was tied for 4th 

16 save opportunities was tied for 4th

7 blown saves was tied for 3rd most (4-way tie)

Defense

12 unearned runs was 8th fewest in the AL

0.45 errors per game (13 errors) was 3rd fewest

8.2 fangraphs defense was 5th best

+0.6 UZR was 8th (+2.5 OF, -1.9 IF)

+7 OAA was 4th (+5 OF, +2 IF)

-2 Rtot was 10th

+5 Rdrs was 9th

Conclusion:

This year's 19-10 March/April record was very similar to last year's 19-9, but the way the Orioles got there was very different.  Last year the O's started off winning a ton of close games (7-2 in one run games), and had a very weak performance from our starting pitchers (5.25 ERA, 4.99 IP/start) but a very stout performance from the bullpen (2.76 ERA, best in the league).   This year, the offense was league-best, the starters did a solid job and the bullpen was shaky.   This year's team was +38 runs in March/April (157 RS, 119 RA in 29 games) whereas last year's version was +25 (147 RS, 122 RA in 28 games).   Defensively, the O's have been solid overall but some of their miscues have cost them pretty dearly.  Overall, it was a very good start for the O's in 2024 even though it feels as if it could have been even better.  I'd gladly take 5 more months just like it!

[Frobby]

May 2024

17-9 record

9-5 at home

8-4 on the road

5-3 vs. AL East

4-3 in one-run games

2-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.54 runs per game was 4th in the AL

.234 BA was 8th

.299  OBP was 10th

.416 SLG was 3rd

.715 OPS was 3rd

1.31 HR/game was 2nd

.257/.345/.455 with RISP (232 PA, 191 AB, 49 H, 80 TOB, 87 TB)

Pitching

2.86 ERA was 2nd in the AL

3.27 runs allowed per game was 2nd

0.58HR/game was best in the AL

2.34 starters' ERA was 2nd

5.47 IP/Start was 6th

3.65 bullpen ERA was 6th

10 saves was tied for 2nd 

14 save opportunities 

4 blown saves 

Defense

10 unearned runs was tied for 9th fewest in the AL

0.42  errors per game (11 errors) 

+1.4 fangraphs defense 

+12.6 UZR (-0.2 OF, +12.8 IF)

+4 OAA (+1 OF, +3 IF)

+15 Rtot

+14 Rdrs 

Cumulative through May

Batting

5.00 runs per game was 2nd in the AL

.245 BA was 4th

.306  OBP was 9th

.434 SLG was 2nd

.740 OPS was 2nd

1.44 HR/game was 2nd

.269/.333/.462 with RISP (518 PA, 446 AB, 120 H, 171 TOB, 206 TB) ( .795 OPS with RISP was 5th in the AL)

Pitching

3.29 ERA was 2nd in the AL

3.71  runs allowed per game was 3rd

0.89 HR/game was 4th lowest

3.01 starters' ERA 2nd

5.55 IP/Start was 4th

3.73 bullpen ERA was 7th

19 saves was 4th 

30 save opportunities was tied for 1st

11 blown saves was tied for 2nd most (3 -way tie)

Defense

22 unearned runs was 6th fewest in the AL

0.44 errors per game (24 errors) was 3rd fewest

+9.4  fangraphs defense was 4th best in the AL

+13.2 UZR was best in the AL (+2.3 OF, +10.9 IF)

+11 OAA was tied for 2nd (+6 OF, +5 IF)

+13 Rtot was 5th

+19 Rdrs was 7th

Conclusion:  Despite many complaints about the offense this month, the O's were 4th in the AL in runs/game and 3rd in OPS.  BA and OBP were down significantly, but the SLG and the .800 OPS with RISP kept the offense moving.  The real story in May though was the pitching (2nd in the AL in ERA at 2.86), especially the starting pitching (also 2nd, at 2.34b ERA).  The relievers were sort of middle of the pack, but saved games at a better rate (10 of 14) than in March/April (9 of 16).  The defense was excellent by all metrics.  Overall the O's outscored opponents by 33 runs in May (118-85 in 26 games) after doing so by 38 runs in March/April (157-119 in 29 games).  That will work!

Edited June 1 by Frobby

[Explosivo]

Awesome work on this frobby, wow!

[HowAboutThat]

Damn those blown saves! Mike should be fired…

[Frobby]

June 2024

17-12 record

9-6 at home

8-6 on the road

9-4 vs. AL East

3-4 in one-run games

1-1 in extra innings

Batting

5.62 runs per game was 2nd in the AL

.273 BA was 4th

.333  OBP was 3rd

.513 SLG was 1st

.847 OPS was 1st

2.07 HR/game was 1st

.252/.293/.487 with RISP (263 PA, 238 AB, 60 H, 77 TOB, 116 TB)

Pitching

3.73 ERA was 3rd in the AL

4.21 runs allowed per game was 5th

1.03 HR/game was best in the AL

4.03 starters' ERA was 4th

5.54 IP/Start was 3rd

3.23 bullpen ERA was 2nd

8 saves was tied for 5th 

11 save opportunities 

3 blown saves 

Defense

15 unearned runs was second-worst in the AL

0.52  errors per game (15 errors) 

+2.8 fangraphs defense 

+0.0 UZR (+0.2 OF, -0.2 IF)

+0 OAA (+3 OF, -3 IF)

-3 Rtot

+14 Rdrs 

Cumulative through June

Batting

5.21 runs per game was 1st in the AL

.255 BA was 2nd

.316  OBP was 6th

.462 SLG was 1st

.778 OPS was 1st

1.65 HR/game was 1st

.263/.319/.471 with RISP (781 PA, 684 AB, 180 H, 248 TOB, 322 TB) ( .790 OPS with RISP was 4th in the AL)

Pitching

3.44 ERA was 1st in the AL

3.88 runs allowed per game was 3rd

0.94 HR/game was 2nd lowest

3.36 starters' ERA was 1st

5.54 IP/Start was 3rd

3.56 bullpen ERA was 4th

27 saves was 2nd

41 save opportunities was 2nd

14 blown saves was 4th most

Defense

37 unearned runs was tied for 10th fewest in the AL

0.47 errors per game (39 errors) was 4th fewest

+12.2  fangraphs defense was 6th best in the AL

+13.2 UZR was best in the AL (+2.5 OF, +10.7 IF)

+11 OAA was 6th (+9 OF, +2 IF)

+10 Rtot was 8th

+33 Rdrs was 5th

Conclusion:  Both the offense and the pitching were excellent in June, against mostly tough competition.   The offense was highlighted by outrageous homer production (2.07 per game), but the team BA and OBP also were very good, so it wasn't only a power show.   If there's any negative here, it's that the team didn't produce a good OBP in RISP situations (.293), though the .252 BA was decent and the slugging (.487) in RISP situations was outstanding.  On the pitching side, both the starters and the bullpen performed well, which was a big accomplishment considering the recent injuries and the fact that the team had only one off-day all month.  Probably the biggest downer was that the team gave up 15 unearned runs.   The overall defensive numbers were decent but it seems the mistakes came at inopportune times, or the pitchers didn't do a great job of minimizing damage after defensive miscues.  Not surprisingly, 10 of the 15 unearned runs came in Orioles losses, including three games where the loss margin was equal to or less than the number of unearned runs the O's allowed.  Still, it was a very good team performance in what was arguably the toughest monthly schedule we will face all year.

 

[Frobby]

A brief month-by month breakdown so far:

March/April: 5.41 runs per game (1st), 4.10 runs allowed per game (7th), 19-10 record

May: 4.54 runs per game (4th), 3.27 runs allowed per game (2nd), 17-9 record

June: 5.62 runs/game (2nd), 4.21 runs allowed per game (5th), 17-12 record

[HowAboutThat]

Really appreciate this. If I recall correctly, you’re a retired lawyer, so going from 100 hour work weeks to zero…and I’m glad, because it means you have time for these compilations. 
thank you!

[Frobby]

 

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Really appreciate this. If I recall correctly, you’re a retired lawyer, so going from 100 hour work weeks to zero…and I’m glad, because it means you have time for these compilations. 
thank you!

Thanks for the kind words.   Truth is, I was doing these monthly compilations long before I retired.   I'm definitely doing more digging around on other topics, though, like the WAR by 27-game segment thread and other things.

[LookitsPuck]

Defense was atrocious, and Westy just was really, really bad in June.

Frobby, thanks for putting this together. Great work!

Edited July 1 by LookitsPuck

[Frobby]

July 2024

12-13 record

5-8 at home

7-5  on the road

9-4 vs. AL East

2-1 in one-run games

1-0 in extra innings

Batting

4.60 runs per game was 7th in the AL

.257 BA was 5th

.331  OBP was 5th

.429 SLG was 7th

.760 OPS was 6th

1.28 HR/game was 6th

.228/.252/.383 with RISP (234 PA, 206 AB, 47 H, 59 TOB, 79 TB)

Pitching

4.97 ERA was 13rd in the AL

5.36 runs allowed per game was 12th

1.32 HR/game was tied for 9th fewest

5.07 starters' ERA was 13th

5.19 IP/Start was 8th

4.83 bullpen ERA was 11th

6 saves was tied for 7th 

8 save opportunities 

2 blown saves (O's won both games)

Defense

12 unearned runs was tied for second-worst in the AL

0.68  errors per game (17 errors) 

-9.5 fangraphs defense 

+0.2 UZR (-1.6 OF, +1.8 IF)

-11 OAA (+0 OF, -11 IF)

-16 Rtot

-17 Rdrs 

Cumulative through July

Batting

5.07 runs per game was 2nd in the AL

.255 BA was 3rd

.319  OBP was 5th

.455 SLG was 1st

.774 OPS was 1st

1.57 HR/game was 1st

.255/.314/.451 with RISP (1051 PA, 890 AB, 227 H, 317 TOB, 401 TB ( .765 OPS with RISP was 7th in the AL)

Pitching

3.78 ERA was 4th in the AL

4.22 runs allowed per game was 6th

1.03 HR/game was 4th lowest

3.73  starters' ERA was 3rd

5.46 IP/Start was 3rd

3.86 bullpen ERA was 6th

33 saves was 3rd

49 save opportunities was 3rd

16 blown saves was 5th most

Defense

49 unearned runs was  13th fewest in the AL

0.51 errors per game (56 errors) was 6th fewest

+2.7  fangraphs defense was 9th best in the AL

+13.4 UZR was 4th best in the AL (+0.9 OF, +12.5 IF)

+0 OAA was tied for 9th (+9 OF, -9 IF)

-6 Rtot was 12th

+16 Rdrs was tied for 7th

Conclusion:  July was a down month for the Orioles in all phases of the game, but while the offense merely slipped to so-so, the pitching was absolutely awful.   Although the hitting was slightly better than league average in runs/game and OPS for the month, it was terrible in the first half of July before the all-star break, and has been very strong since then.   RISP hitting was very poor this month (.635 OPS), and again, really abysmal in the first half of the month before straightening out more recently.   The pitching was poor in all phases (13th in starters ERA, 11th in bullpen ERA), though I'd say the starters were more problematic, as the bullpen didn't lose a game in which they were handed a lead.  Finally, by almost all standard or advanced metrics, the defense was awful (UZR dissents from that conclusion, but anyone with eyes can see how bad it's been).   Not to name names, but Gunnar has made a panopy of errors since the all-star break, and Jordan Westburg also had a very poor month.   The season-long disparity between the team rank in errors (6th fewest) and and unearned runs (13th fewest) suggests that either the errors have come at really inopportune times, or the pitchers have done a really bad job of minimizing the imoact of the errors, or both.  I suspect both is the answer.   In any event, I'm glad to turn the page on July and hope the team gets back to playing consistent, heads-up baseball down the stretch.

[Frobby]

August 2024

13-15 record

5-5 at home

8-10  on the road

5-5 vs. AL East

2-4 in one-run games

0-0 in extra innings

Batting

4.46 runs per game was 6th in the AL

.231 BA was 10th

.299  OBP was 11th

.383 SLG was 9th

.691 OPS was 9th

1.21 HR/game was tied for 6th

Pitching

4.68 ERA was 11th in the AL

4.86 runs allowed per game was 11th

1.14 HR/game was 6th fewest

4.67 starters' ERA was 11th

5.30 IP/Start was 6th

4.69 bullpen ERA was 11th

8 saves was tied for 7th 

11 save opportunities 

3 blown saves 

Defense

10 unearned runs was 4th worst AL

0.43  errors per game (12 errors) 

-3.0 fangraphs defense 

+0.0 UZR (0.0 OF, +0.0 IF) [not sure I believe this; Fangraphs may have stopped updating UZR]

-1 OAA (+4 OF, -5 IF)

-18 Rtot

-14 Rdrs 

Cumulative through August

Batting

4.95 runs per game was 2nd in the AL

.251 BA was 6th

.315  OBP was 5th

.442 SLG was 1st

.758 OPS was 2nd

1.50 HR/game was 2nd

.252/.311/.440 with RISP (1242 PA, 1087 AB, 274 H, 384 TOB, 478 TB (.751 OPS with RISP was 9th in the AL)

Pitching

3.96 ERA was 7th in the AL

4.35 runs allowed per game was 7th

1.05 HR/game was 4th lowest

3.92 starters' ERA was 7th

5.43 IP/Start was 4th

4.03 bullpen ERA was 9th

41 saves was 3rd

60 save opportunities was 3rd

19 blown saves was tied for 7th most

Defense

59 unearned runs was 13th fewest in the AL

0.50 errors per game (68 errors) was 3rd fewest

-0.7  fangraphs defense was 9th best in the AL

+13.4 UZR was 4th best in the AL (+0.9 OF, +12.5 IF)

-1 OAA was 10th (+13 OF, -14 IF)

-24 Rtot was 13th

+2 Rdrs was 11th

Conclusion:  August was another month of mediocre play all around the board.   The offense had poor OPS components and yet managed to score a slightly above league median number of runs/game, but it was their least productive month and quite inconsistent.   The pitching was a bit better in August than July, but still significantly below average, both for the starters and the bullpen.  The defense didn't make a ton of errors but they were far below average by all advanced metrics, and the eye test tells you that they've been very subpar the last could of months.  Honestly, the O's have looked nothing like a winning team the last two months, and are lucky that they built a nice cushion in the first three.  They need to be much better in all phases of the game to make any kind of postseason run, assuming they hold onto a playoff spot.

Edited September 3 by Frobby

[Frobby]

September 2024

13-12 record

5-7 at home

8-5  on the road

4-5 vs. AL East

0-2 in one-run games

0-2 in extra innings

Batting

4.32 runs per game was 5th in the AL

.246 BA was 3rd

.316  OBP was 4th

.398 SLG was 4th

.714 OPS was 3rd

1.20 HR/game was 4th

.246/.327/.365 with RISP (248 PA, 211 AB, 52 H, 81 TOB, 77 TB)

Pitching

3.85 ERA was 9th in the AL

4.12 runs allowed per game was 8th

1.24 HR/game was tied for 10th fewest

2.94 starters' ERA was 2nd

5.51 IP/Start was 2nd

5.31 bullpen ERA was worst in the AL

5 saves was tied for 10th 

7 save opportunities 

2 blown saves 

Defense

8 unearned runs was tied for 6th fewest

0.52

-5.3 fangraphs defense 

-6.7 UZR (-2.6 OF, -4.1 IF) 

-8 OAA (-2 OF, -6 IF)

+3  Rtot

-1 Rdrs 

Cumulative through September

Batting

4.85 runs per game was 2nd in the AL

.250 BA was 3rd

.315  OBP was 4th

.435 SLG was 1st

.751 OPS was 2nd

1.45 HR/game was 2nd

.251/.314/.428 with RISP (1490 PA, 1298 AB, 326 H, 465 TOB, .555 TB (.741 OPS with RISP was 9th in the AL)

Pitching

3.94 ERA was 8th in the AL

4.31 runs allowed per game was 8th

1.08 HR/game was 4th lowest

3.77 starters' ERA was 4th

5.44 IP/Start was 3rd

4.22 bullpen ERA was 11th

46 saves was 3rd

67 save opportunities was 6th

21 blown saves was tied for 5th fewest

Defense

67 unearned runs was 12th fewest in the AL

0.50 errors per game (81 errors) was 5th fewest

-6.0  fangraphs defense was 10th best in the AL

+6.7 UZR was 6th best in the AL (+=-1.7 OF, +8.4 IF)

-9 OAA was 10th (+11 OF, -20 IF)

-21 Rtot was 11th

+1 Rdrs was 11th

Conclusion:   The perception that the Orioles' offense was terrible for most of September was partially incorrect, because offense was down drastically around the league this month.   The whole AL averaged only 3.92 runs/game for the month, and the O's at 4.32 were substantially better than that.   If you remove the final week when the O's were operating on all cylinders, the O's still averaged 3.73 runs/game, which is bad but doesn't look nearly as bad when you realize how much offense was down generally in September.   The starting pitchers, on the other hand, were unbelievably good at 2.94 ERA (2nd best in the AL), while the bullpen was absolutely atrocious at 5.31 (worst).   Yet, the bullpen only blew 2 saves -- what they mostly did was let games we were already losing get out of hand, like the last game of the Yankees series where Burnes left the game losing 1-0 and then the bullpen coughed up 9 runs.   That happened a lot this month, and this season.  Finally, by most advanced measures, the defense was below average in September though neither the errors nor unearned runs were awful.

Looking back at all of 2024, the team was 2nd in the AL in runs per game and tops in OPS+.   The offense was inconsistent at times, and not very good with RISP or at situational hitting, but bottom line is they scored more runs than every AL team but the Yankees.   The pitching overall was middle of the pack, but marked by a very good performance by the starting pitchers (3.77 ERA was 4th in the AL) and a very poor one by the bullpen (4.22 ERA was 11th).   They did not blow many saves (69% save rate was 3rd best in the AL), but let a lot of narrow deficits get out of hand.   The defense went downhill as the year went along, particularly in the infield, which was +2 OAA at the end of June but ended up -20 for the year.  As the O's head for the playoffs, I'm hoping to see the bats remain hot, but with better situational hitting, and I'll be crossing my fingers that the bullpen and defense do better in the postseason than they did the second half of 2024.

[LookitsPuck]

Thanks, Frobby.

Basically, a very good offense, very good starting pitching, bad defense and bad bullpen. Defense has some upside now that the regulars are back. But this bullpen just isn’t a playoff caliber bullpen. 

[Frobby]

Runs scored and allowed per game by month, and league average for each month:

March/April: 5.41 RS/G, 4.10 RA/G (4.25 league average) 

May: 4.54 RS/G, 3.27 RA/G (4.29 league average)

June: 5.62 RS/G, 4.21 RA/G  (4.44 league average)

July: 4.60 RS/G, 5.36 RA/G (4.51 league average)

August: 4.46 RS/G, 4.86 RA/G (4.24 league average)

September: 4.32 RS/G, 4.12 RA/G (3.93 league average)

You can see from this that the offense produced an above average number of runs every month of the season, while the pitchers were better than average at preventing runs in the first three months but worse than average the last three.   I don't think that tells the whole story, as the offense had an abysmal five weeks or so that began in mid-August and lasted through the penultimate week of the season.   But by and large, the offense got way too much of the blame for the team's lackluster second half performance IMO.