A dozen more strikeouts last night, and most of the lineup is not hitting well

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We are used to essentially GG level defense at every position except for RF on a nightly basis.  If you think the board panics after every blown bullpen lead, wait till you see us lose games because of errors.  We haven't seen that really in 3 years.  Outside of one game one offs with Mckenna and O'Hearn.  

If Mayo gets promoted and pulls a Bill Buckner at 3B, the reaction on OH will be brutal, I don't care what he's hitting.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If Mayo gets promoted and pulls a Bill Buckner at 3B, the reaction on OH will be brutal, I don't care what he's hitting.

I mean, the Red Sox live with Devers D at 3B thanks to his bat. He might even have a ring, but I'm not positive. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

They all have the extra year now. Holliday has the extra year too. I dont think Elias is playing that game with Mayo. He wants to see some improvement defensively. 

I do not think Holliday has the extra year yet.  I may be misremembering, but I think  if a team options a player to the minors and recalls that player within 20 days, the intervening service time is reinstated.   The purpose is to prevent teams from keeping a player below service time limits by giving them a short trip to the minors.   Holliday was optioned on April 26, so he needs to stay in the minors until at least May 16 for his service time not to be reinstated.  After that, he will not be able to earn a full year of service unless he finishes in the top two for Rookie of the Year.

[Jim'sKid26]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Are they? Or is that just something people say? Does anyone have any links to studies that show that teams with more walks/fewer Ks are more consistent (i.e. have a lower standard deviation of runs scored) than teams with less walks/more Ks but similar overall runs scored?

I don't know of any such studies, but I'd love to read one. Do we have any aspiring saberists here who'd like to do some data mining?

Here's a good primer for you:

https://fastercapital.com/content/Walks--Patience-Pays-Off--How-Walks-Impact-Batting-Average.html#:~:text=For the hitter%2C drawing walks,understanding of the pitcher's tendencies.

"Walks are an essential part of any successful offense. They lead to higher OBP, more pitches per plate appearance, force the opposing team to throw more strikes, and are a sign of a disciplined approach at the plate. While they are not the only factor that contributes to a team's success, they are undoubtedly a crucial component. Teams that are patient at the plate and willing to take walks put themselves in a better position to score runs and win games."

The challenge would be to define a metric for run scoring consistency. I'm not sure there is one as yet defined. The fact is that getting more guys on base while causing a pitcher to throw more pitches is beneficial to the hitting team. So conventional wisdom is more baserunners leads to more runs. More runs are better. 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Here's a good primer for you:

https://fastercapital.com/content/Walks--Patience-Pays-Off--How-Walks-Impact-Batting-Average.html#:~:text=For the hitter%2C drawing walks,understanding of the pitcher's tendencies.

"Walks are an essential part of any successful offense. They lead to higher OBP, more pitches per plate appearance, force the opposing team to throw more strikes, and are a sign of a disciplined approach at the plate. While they are not the only factor that contributes to a team's success, they are undoubtedly a crucial component. Teams that are patient at the plate and willing to take walks put themselves in a better position to score runs and win games."

The challenge would be to define a metric for run scoring consistency. I'm not sure there is one as yet defined. The fact is that getting more guys on base while causing a pitcher to throw more pitches is beneficial to the hitting team. So conventional wisdom is more baserunners leads to more runs. More runs are better. 

Run scoring consistency is pretty easy: either a team's standard deviation of runs scored, or maybe coefficient of variation of runs scored. Take all the O's runs scored for the year and dump them into a spreadsheet and run the STDEV calculation.

The O's this year have scored 5.1 runs/game, and the standard deviation of their runs scored is 3.3. The coefficient of variation or variance (3.3/5.1) is 0.64. One standard deviation of O's runs is between 1.8 runs and 8.4 runs.

The Astros, with the fewest Ks in the league, average 4.4 runs/game, with almost exactly the same standard deviation as the O's at 3.3. Their variance therefore is higher at 0.75. One standard deviation of Astros runs is between 1.1 runs and 7.7 runs.

So with this very small sample of just two teams (which you should never use to draw any broad conclusions), you could argue that the Orioles and all their strikeouts have been more consistent in scoring runs than the relatively contact-prone Astros.

[Jim'sKid26]

47 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Run scoring consistency is pretty easy: either a team's standard deviation of runs scored, or maybe coefficient of variation of runs scored. Take all the O's runs scored for the year and dump them into a spreadsheet and run the STDEV calculation.

The O's this year have scored 5.1 runs/game, and the standard deviation of their runs scored is 3.3. The coefficient of variation or variance (3.3/5.1) is 0.64. One standard deviation of O's runs is between 1.8 runs and 8.4 runs.

The Astros, with the fewest Ks in the league, average 4.4 runs/game, with almost exactly the same standard deviation as the O's at 3.3. Their variance therefore is higher at 0.75. One standard deviation of Astros runs is between 1.1 runs and 7.7 runs.

So with this very small sample of just two teams (which you should never use to draw any broad conclusions), you could argue that the Orioles and all their strikeouts have been more consistent in scoring runs than the relatively contact-prone Astros.

That is painting in very broad brush strokes. I'm not certain I would draw the same conclusion as you have. Standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed data is rather than how one variable relates to another. I think in this case a better assessment would be a regression analysis where you are looking at the impact of one independent variable, walks or OBP on a second independent variable, runs or wins. And thats assuming a linear regression, which may not be accurate. 

[RZNJ]

1. I like Mayo and would love to see him called up

2. @Roy Firestone described Mayo as a patient hitter who doesn’t strike out too much.  Ok, but you didn’t mention the 13 walks and 47 strikeouts in 159 PA.  That’s a 29.5% K rate and only a 8% walk rate.

3. Roy talks about Mountcastle hitting .200 for the past week which seems pretty silly.  Ok, in Mayo’s last week he’s 5 for 29 with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts.

[TopGunnar]

Roy, I’m as unhinged as they come. I get really frustrated when we play games like last night but here’s the deal. The Orioles quite possibly might be the best team in the MLB. We’re going to lose games. We’re also probably going to win 100 games. And that sure beats losing 100 games. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

That is painting in very broad brush strokes. I'm not certain I would draw the same conclusion as you have. Standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed data is rather than how one variable relates to another. I think in this case a better assessment would be a regression analysis where you are looking at the impact of one independent variable, walks or OBP on a second independent variable, runs or wins. And thats assuming a linear regression, which may not be accurate. 

Huh? Drungo nailed it. If you want to compare variation in two samples or populations of data, then comparing coefficients of variation is absolutely the way to go.  Comparing standard deviations is ok, but not as good. Maybe you misread what he was talking about doing? I don’t think he was talking about relating two variables at all. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hunter Harvey was in the Orioles system for nine years, and he threw a grand total of 23.2 innings in the majors, and 262.1 innings in the minors. That's 32 innings a year for nine years.

Maybe he becomes the new Rudy Seanez, and pitches 17 years with his arm held together with bailing wire and chewing gum and sometimes has a year like Seanez did with the Padres in '05. But I don't blame the O's at all for moving on after nine years (!) of almost never being healthy.

When Harvey was drafted my oldest kid was in the first grade, and his first 40-inning season in the majors was the year my kid got his driver's license.

Are you trying to say that you’re old?  

[Drifter]

I'm going to go via a different tack...

Sometimes, when the O's are struggling at the beginning of the game, it seems like they have absolutely no clue about the opposing pitcher.. his tendencies, his go to pitch and whatnot. We know the teams all have a pregame scouting report, but to what depth are these reports and are the players "instructed" to any degree?

As for Mayo.. I see him in our future, but right now could be too soon. Urias has struggled, but so have a few of our everyday starters. It happens. One thing I'd like to see Urias fix, is his 2 strike swing. His swing for the most part is hard and looping, but with 2 strikes (and men on) is out of control hard. Is the general rule to make contact no longer considered the best approach?

[EddeeEddee]

I'm not so concerned about the strikeouts as a team.  Relative to the league the O's are not striking out that much -- in the bottom half overall.

But I am concerned about the lack of walks.  I don't think the O's current level of scoring is sustainable unless they start walking more. 

Gunnar Henderson leads the team in walks with 12.  As a comparison the Dodgers have 6 players with more than 12 walks, beginning with Mookie who has 29, Freeman with 24, Ohtani with 20 and on down to Will Smith who has 13.  The Dodgers lead the league in walks, so maybe they're not the best comparison, but even average hitting teams like the Mets and Nationals have about 20 more walks than the Orioles on the season.  The O's need to get more free passes to have more scoring opportunities, especially as the hitting comes back to earth.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Huh? Drungo nailed it. If you want to compare variation in two samples or populations of data, then comparing coefficients of variation is absolutely the way to go.  Comparing standard deviations is ok, but not as good. Maybe you misread what he was talking about doing? I don’t think he was talking about relating two variables at all. 

Arguing about how to compare the effect of two independent variables on a baseball message board seems like a fool's errand. Let's agree to disagree. Sorry to have wasted your time. 

[Ohfan67]

51 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Arguing about how to compare the effect of two independent variables on a baseball message board seems like a fool's errand. Let's agree to disagree. Sorry to have wasted your time. 

Again, that’s not what Drungo was doing. You didn’t waste my time. I think you guys were talking about different things.  The discussion was the statistics of “consistency”, and that is really comparing variances, not trying to determine explanatory variables or relating variables.