Great Example of why Blown Saves/Holds are a bad stat

[baltfan]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They need to adjust the blown save to the pitcher who's "earned run" blew the save. If an error "blew the save" then none is awarded.

This kinda would defeat the save stat.  If a starter leaves up 1-0 in the ninth with 2 runners on and the closer lets the inherited runner score it doesn’t make sense that the starter gets the blown save. If the reliever had quelled the rally, he gets the save.  If not, he blew the save. 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This kinda would defeat the save stat.  If a starter leaves up 1-0 in the ninth with 2 runners on and the closer lets the inherited runner score it doesn’t make sense that the starter gets the blown save. If the reliever had quelled the rally, he gets the save.  If not, he blew the save. 

One of the problems is the broad scope of the definition. A save might be getting three outs after starting the 9th with the bases empty and a three-run lead. Which has average odds of success of something like 98%. 98% of those kind of saves are converted. If you blow that you've really done something badly.

But a save may also be coming into a bases loaded situation with nobody out in the 9th with a one-run lead. You could go strikeout-flyout-strikeout on seven pitches and still get a blown save. The pitcher probably had about a 10% shot at Houdini'ing that situation. But it's still the same Boolean save or blown save.

It goes back to the poor choice to make wins, losses, and saves individual stats when they're really team metrics. That inevitably leads to nonsensical attributions.

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I suggested that ages ago to help mitigate arbitration raises for closers.

Do starters make less money now that we're in a world where you can win the Cy Young with a 14-9 W/L record? Or have the arbitration calculations just adjusted to the new normal?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do starters make less money now that we're in a world where you can win the Cy Young with a 14-9 W/L record? Or have the arbitration calculations just adjusted to the new normal?

My understanding is that saves are something that arbiters look at.  If you reduce the number of saves an arbitration eligible pitcher accumulates it should be an advantage to the team.

Also, if you are the only team acting in this fashion it isn't the "new normal".

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My understanding is that saves are something that arbiters look at.  If you reduce the number of saves an arbitration eligible pitcher accumulates it should be an advantage to the team.

Also, if you are the only team acting in this fashion it isn't the "new normal".

I'm a little curious here, but not nearly curious enough to run a few hours of a study. But it would be nice to see matched-pair comparisons of arb awards between relievers with, say, 70 innings, 2.50 ERA, 2 saves, and 70 innings 2.50 ERA, 27 saves. Although you'd expect some differences because my going-in assumption is that the leverage index of the closer will be higher. Then we'd have a much better idea of if this effect exists, and how significant it is.

Also, if your hypothesis is true it's plausible that if your main goal is to reduce salaries, the best strategy might be to have your ~7th-best pitcher rack up most of the saves since his worse performance might offset the salary impact of having the most saves. That might be more cost-effective than having 11 guys get some saves, but inevitably your best pitcher still gets most of them since you want him there in the highest-leverage situations.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

This kinda would defeat the save stat.  If a starter leaves up 1-0 in the ninth with 2 runners on and the closer lets the inherited runner score it doesn’t make sense that the starter gets the blown save. If the reliever had quelled the rally, he gets the save.  If not, he blew the save. 

I should have used the word reliever vs pitcher. That was my mistake. Of course a starter shouldn't get a blown save.

[Surhoffan17]

19 hours ago, Pickles said:

I hate when people cite save percentage and/or blown save percentage when evaluating relief pitchers because it is a stat that is so wildly dependent on context it tells you very little on its own.  I think looking at overall team numbers is a better use of it but still flawed.

And last night's game was a great example.

Kimbrel was credited with a hold last night, despite allowing 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and it was actually Akin who was credited with the blown save, despite giving up 0 runs personally.

I was just looking at the box score and this absurdity jumped out at me.

This especially true if a pitcher was closer part of the season and a set up man for another part. If said pitcher blows a game in the 8th, he is charged with a blown save. Whereas if that same pitcher "holds" the game, he only gets a hold. So, if one were to compare blown saves to successful saves for these type of relievers, it is an incomplete picture. 

Cano is a perfect example of this last year. He had 8 saves and 6 blown saves. But it's misleading to say he was 8 of 14. You'd have to look at successful holds to get the complete picture. In Cano's case, he had 31 holds - so he was 39 of 45 when combining the two. Point being most of those 6 blown saves were actually blown holds likely before the 9th (where Bautista would've come in to get the real save). 

Also, to your point, Kimbrel gets a hold where he was anything but effective. Same was true on Saturday. In my book, he blew both saves. He was bailed out by Cano (who would've been charged with the blown save if he allowed the tying run in that game) and then Akin officially blew the save on Wednesday allowing an inherited runner to score. 

[DenPA2002]

19 hours ago, Malike said:

They should get rid of the stupid save rule then people wouldn't be compelled to use washed up relievers to compile stats for milestones.

And then you are free to throw the ball from the last out in any fountain you want.