The 2024 Trade Deadline

[LGOrioles]

28 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Someone may have already mentioned this. Jim Bowden mentioned yesterday by name Kopech and Pham with CWS. 
 

With Oakland Adams and Erceg. Said he thinks Doval would be a good fit with SF if they fall out of it. 

Where did he say that? I saw his article in the Athletic where he had Severino to the O’s. Also feel like his credibility is not great when it comes to rumors and he has some takes that are pretty out there.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The positive impact of Flaherty was even less than minimal. ONE SINGULAR good start. 

It was a very low risk/low reward move that didn’t allow us to potentially maximize on the ultimate outcome of the 2023 season. 

Hopefully the same mistake is not made again for 2024.

The reward turned out to be low.  It wasn’t sure to turn out that way.  Flaherty’s current season is proof of that, and he’d had a couple of good months just before we acquired him.  Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery, who some people have portrayed as the “sure thing” we should have chased, has a 6.00 ERA this year.   Pitchers are unpredictable.  

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The positive impact of Flaherty was even less than minimal. ONE SINGULAR good start. 

It was a very low risk/low reward move that didn’t allow us to potentially maximize on the ultimate outcome of the 2023 season. 

Hopefully the same mistake is not made again for 2024.

I do take your point, but in the grand scheme of things, it did not matter except costing us two or three regular season wins.
 

I think we are discussing the concern that Mike may do the same thing this season, and I certainly hope he does not.

[Bemorewins]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he went for Jack Flaherty at the deadline last year.  When he doesn’t trade any of his top 3-4 prospects and doesn’t come up with the top 3-4 guys available at the deadline this year how strong will the love affair be then?

I have loved the O’s since 88’ and will love them long after Elias is gone.

Now if the extreme frugalness continues into next season, it will affect my spending choices (renewing season tix) and my interest and attention.

If I get the sense that the Orioles have gone back to embracing mediocrity, I will be the first to admit that I won’t attend nearly as much (if at all) nor be nearly as interested as I am now.

It’s not about the results (the Ravens have won two Bowls in almost 30 years well I have been a fan since 98/99’) but it’s about the process. As a long time sports fan I accept that most seasons will end in disappointment. But what I can’t accept is mediocrity from my franchise. And not spending real money when you are charging me real prices is not something that I can nor will I ever support.

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, Philip said:

I do take your point, but in the grand scheme of things, it did not matter except costing us two or three regular season wins.
 

I think we are discussing the concern that Mike may do the same thing this season, and I certainly hope he does not.

The regular season wasn’t the issue, we were going to make the playoffs (at the time of acquisition) with or without Flaherty or Fujinama. 

But it sure did matter in the postseason when both combined gave us nothing (like not even an appearance because they were so bad in the regular season).

If we found ourselves being forced to start Kremer again in the playoffs that would be a travesty.

[Bemorewins]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The reward turned out to be low.  It wasn’t sure to turn out that way.  Flaherty’s current season is proof of that, and he’d had a couple of good months just before we acquired him.  Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery, who some people have portrayed as the “sure thing” we should have chased, has a 6.00 ERA this year.   Pitchers are unpredictable.  

Facts! Pitchers are unpredictable.

I certainly don’t remember Flaherty having 2 good months at any point last season. Maybe I’m misremembering?

I remember at the time of acquisition thinking “why?” This guy is not any better than what we have.

However, I thought (if I am recalling correctly) that Montgomery was having a better season with STL when he was traded. 

But as you state, this year is different. Flaherty has pitched well and Montgomery not so much. It’s possible that Montgomery’s off-season really messed up his prep, approach, and process for this season. Boras really screwed him good.

[eddie83]

51 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Where did he say that? I saw his article in the Athletic where he had Severino to the O’s. Also feel like his credibility is not great when it comes to rumors and he has some takes that are pretty out there.

Yesterday on The Front Office radio show. 

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Thank you for sharing your perspective.

However a disagree totally and completely. It’s going to take WAY MORE than “a little bad luck” and “a few bad decisions”.

IMO it would take the worse luck ever and horrible decisions in the form of almost self-sabotage in order for us not to be competitive in the next 3 years at least. We have dynasty type assets. With smart decisions from baseball ops, meaningful financial backing from ownership, and a little good fortune, we could be the next Houston Astros.

I believe that the O's COULD be the next Houston Astros.  And Mike Elias is a good horse to bet on to get them there.

I also believe that the baseball gods absolutely adore hubris.  It's a wonderful opportunity to have a good long laugh, share a round of applause, and raise their glasses in a toast.

Then they punish...

[Allan Bryant]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO, it’s going to take more than Elias. He will need what he never had under Angelos, meaningful ownership support to make additions using all the avenues of team improvement, not just some.

Also, we will need the tremendous efforts from players like Henderson and Rutschman AND a little good fortune in order to MAXIMIZE our true to potential and become multiple World Series winners with this cast of characters.

What you just outlined is what most of us hope to see happen ( me included ) . We Orioles have endured so many losing seasons under Angelos regime .  The damage he caused on goodwill of fans is immense . Your bringing up Mr Rubinstein is another factor to set up Orioles’s winning window hopefully long time . I myself am excited to watch all of this happen 

[e16bball]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If we found ourselves being forced to start Kremer again in the playoffs that would be a travesty.

Hard to imagine why occasionally folks accuse you of being “dramatic”

We’re talking about the Dean Kremer who sports a combined 3.83 ERA since 2022. Which makes him very close neighbors with guys like Zach Eflin (3.76), Carlos Rodon (3.77), Aaron Nola (3.77), Jesus Luzardo (3.78), Braxton Garrett (3.86), Joe Ryan (3.88), Andrew Heaney (3.89), Bryce Elder (3.92), and Pablo Lopez (3.98). All of whom have started at least one playoff game during that period of time…their teams also evidently being willing to perpetrate a travesty on their fans and the game.

Like pretty much every Orioles fan alive, I would love for them to run out someone better than Kremer as the Game 3 SP. But it’s really not *game over* for us if that ends up being the case. I don’t think the quality of most teams’ 3rd best starter (that’s still standing in October) is quite as high as you’re fearing it will be. 

[Allan Bryant]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Facts! Pitchers are unpredictable.

I certainly don’t remember Flaherty having 2 good months at any point last season. Maybe I’m misremembering?

I remember at the time of acquisition thinking “why?” This guy is not any better than what we have.

However, I thought (if I am recalling correctly) that Montgomery was having a better season with STL when he was traded. 

But as you state, this year is different. Flaherty has pitched well and Montgomery not so much. It’s possible that Montgomery’s off-season really messed up his prep, approach, and process for this season. Boras really screwed him good.

I just googled and found out Montgomery fired Boras’s ass . Hope Montgomery find his groove this season 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

I believe that the O's COULD be the next Houston Astros.  And Mike Elias is a good horse to bet on to get them there.

I also believe that the baseball gods absolutely adore hubris.  It's a wonderful opportunity to have a good long laugh, share a round of applause, and raise their glasses in a toast.

Then they punish...

Well there appears to be a very big difference between you and I. I am not nor will I ever be polytheistic. I do not believe in the baseball gods. Just one God for me.

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Hard to imagine why occasionally folks accuse you of being “dramatic”

We’re talking about the Dean Kremer who sports a combined 3.83 ERA since 2022. Which makes him very close neighbors with guys like Zach Eflin (3.76), Carlos Rodon (3.77), Aaron Nola (3.77), Jesus Luzardo (3.78), Braxton Garrett (3.86), Joe Ryan (3.88), Andrew Heaney (3.89), Bryce Elder (3.92), and Pablo Lopez (3.98). All of whom have started at least one playoff game during that period of time…their teams also evidently being willing to perpetrate a travesty on their fans and the game.

Like pretty much every Orioles fan alive, I would love for them to run out someone better than Kremer as the Game 3 SP. But it’s really not *game over* for us if that ends up being the case. I don’t think the quality of most teams’ 3rd best starter (that’s still standing in October) is quite as high as you’re fearing it will be. 

You should know I could care less being called dramatic. If that’s how you see it, so be it.

[24fps]

52 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Hard to imagine why occasionally folks accuse you of being “dramatic”

We’re talking about the Dean Kremer who sports a combined 3.83 ERA since 2022. Which makes him very close neighbors with guys like Zach Eflin (3.76), Carlos Rodon (3.77), Aaron Nola (3.77), Jesus Luzardo (3.78), Braxton Garrett (3.86), Joe Ryan (3.88), Andrew Heaney (3.89), Bryce Elder (3.92), and Pablo Lopez (3.98). All of whom have started at least one playoff game during that period of time…their teams also evidently being willing to perpetrate a travesty on their fans and the game.

Like pretty much every Orioles fan alive, I would love for them to run out someone better than Kremer as the Game 3 SP. But it’s really not *game over* for us if that ends up being the case. I don’t think the quality of most teams’ 3rd best starter (that’s still standing in October) is quite as high as you’re fearing it will be. 

Thing is, if the playoffs started tomorrow, Irvin would get the nod for game 3 over Kremer, and rightly so.

I'm a big fan of what Kremer and Irvin have done beginning around this time last season and it's terrific to have both of them at the back end of the rotation.  But it's also a perfect opportunity for the O's to take the initiative and I'll really be disappointed if Elias goes all mealy-mouthed come late July.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I have loved the O’s since 88’ and will love them long after Elias is gone.

Now if the extreme frugalness continues into next season, it will affect my spending choices (renewing season tix) and my interest and attention.

If I get the sense that the Orioles have gone back to embracing mediocrity, I will be the first to admit that I won’t attend nearly as much (if at all) nor be nearly as interested as I am now.

It’s not about the results (the Ravens have won two Bowls in almost 30 years well I have been a fan since 98/99’) but it’s about the process. As a long time sports fan I accept that most seasons will end in disappointment. But what I can’t accept is mediocrity from my franchise. And not spending real money when you are charging me real prices is not something that I can nor will I ever support.

I definitely see this differently than you.  If this is about process, then the Orioles’ process since the minute Elias arrived has been fantastic.   I thought that when they were losing, I thought it while they were turning things around, and I think it now that they’re winning.  They didn’t win the most games of any Oriole team in 44 years by accident, and the fact that they’re on pace for 100+ wins again this year isn’t some coincidence.  They didn’t go for some quick fix, they tore it down and executed an outstanding rebuild.   My spending decisions are completely unrelated to how much the Orioles spend on payroll.  I like watching this young, excellent, exciting team play baseball and I get no enjoyment at all from studying payroll numbers, no matter what those numbers are.  And for the most part, watching young, hungry, improving players who came up together is more fun than watching older, declining players who came from the four corners of the Earth and are highly paid. 

So, to be very clear, I don’t equate “commitment to winning” to “commitment to spending.”   I expect the former.  If that sometimes requires spending, obviously I’m in favor.  But mostly I want to see a system that yields consistently good results, regardless of spending.