The 2024 Trade Deadline

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I thought I'd share some interesting exchanges with Tigers fans on the MotownForums site.

 

I really like Holliday, but there is no way I am trading Mayo + Basallo for anybody.  I would be surprised if a Skubal trade happens now, but seems likelier in the offseason. 

[accinfo]

My opinion is that they won’t trade any of Holliday, Mayo, Kjersted or Basallo.  I think he looks at Mayo to replace Mountcastle, Kjersted to replace Santander, and adding Holliday and Basallo to the lineup.  I think they will trade anyone else.  That is why I don’t expect to get a number 3 or better starter.  

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, jcaponio said:

I would be very upset if ME traded either Cowser or Kjerstad for 1.5 years of Eflin and his 4.19 ERA. 

I think I would too, but Eflin's an interesting guy to watch play out.     1.5 years ago Eflin was one of the "better Kyle Gibsons" TBR put 3/40 on while Elias stuck to 1-year deals.

Assuming he is moved, TBR will have paid Eflin 1.5 years/$18 million, gotten a year of All-Star performance plus this meh 2024 so far, and whatever they get from some other Club that will give up prospects to pay him 1.5 years/$22 million.

The 11-11-18 payout schedule that gave a clue Eflin's odds of remaining a Ray would be lower in Year 3, and means about ~$7 million through July 30.    October I'm double counting months so the Orioles would get an October premium 4 out of 8 regular + post season "months".     TBR can look to McClanahan, Springs, Baz, Rasmussen, Pepiot and Taj Bradley being 6 guys for the first 5 games of 2025 so I am almost certain Eflin will move.

If DET holds Skubal, you don't trust Crochet for innings, and TOR-TEX keep their guys, he's close to the best available and kills 2 birds with one stone lining up the Burnes backfill for 2025.

The division thing makes it more of an underdog than any other deal, but I think Eflin is a medium needle mover for the SP3 role come October.    That said, Elias has a blank slate of a pitching staff in Bradish's absence to figure out Game 3 as a bullpen game, or with another Eflin-Bassitt level guy.

[CaptainRedbeard]

In 2017, Chris Sale had 3 years of control and was traded for the BA #2 prospect (Moncada), the BA #32 prospect (Kopech) and two much lesser prospects, the highest of which was Boston’s #9 prospect in their system before the trade. Sale was entering his age 28 season and had 5 straight seasons averaging over 200 IP and 5 fWAR. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/the-trade-that-started-the-current-era-of-white-sox-baseball.html

And that was 7 years ago, and the way the league has valued prospects has vastly increased since then and pitcher injuries have similarly increased.

Skubal, and particularly Crochet, have pitched on 2017 Sale’s level but their durability and length of track record are not even in the same zip code. And Sale even had an additional 0.5 years of control. 

I think the only trade since then with anywhere near that prospect capital going back was Soto, and he was about as valuable and reliable as a player can get. And even that package was probably less valuable than what Sale brought back since the way the league has valued top prospects has continually increased.

Prospects on Holliday’s level are virtually never traded. And Basallo and Mayo are not too far behind him, and still the top ~10 type prospect that are traded exceedingly rarely, and only for exceptionally valuable returns - which even Skubal and Crochet do not approach. If they had the exact OPPOSITE health history and had been durable and putting up these numbers for years, maybe it would be a conversation. 

[Just Regular]

"Late July", heh.

https://www.mlb.com/angels/news/anthony-rendon-returns-mike-trout-injury-update

Crochet - I do think there's some chance his Friday start against the Pirates is his last as a White Sock.     He reps the org at the All-Star game, but Getz can be reasonably sure he has the best guy and ask for best offers over the All-Star break.    At least some bidders at that moment would I think not temporize for a view of the mid-late July ballgames, and Crochet has special workload circumstances.

I remember when the White Sox got Eloy Jimenez, I believe the deal broke around the ASB - July 13, 2017 according to this.

https://www.milb.com/news/white-sox-acquire-eloy-jimenez-dylancease-from-cubs-241971790

 

[oriolediehard]

How about trying to trade with the Marlins? They may be more reasonable than the White Sox. How about Luzardo and Tanner Scott? Is Luzardo injured?

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

How about trying to trade with the Marlins? They may be more reasonable than the White Sox. How about Luzardo and Tanner Scott? Is Luzardo injured?

Yes Luzardo has a non arm injury

[sportsfan8703]

The question is, who would you want starting a game 3 over Suarez,

Skubal - Pushes Grayson to Game 3, Yes

Crochet - See Above, Yes

Scherzer - Yes

Kikuchi - Yes

Fedde - 75/25 

Eflin - 60/40

Severino - 50/50

Heaney - No

Lorenzen - No 

Flaherty - No

If you wouldn’t rather have the acquired SP over Suarez in Game 3, then there is no point in acquiring them. 

Edited July 9 by sportsfan8703

[RVAOsFan]

What kind of package do we think it will take to get Scherzer? Can we do it without giving up the few pitching prospects we have?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

What kind of package do we think it will take to get Scherzer? Can we do it without giving up the few pitching prospects we have?

I think there are tons of ways of getting it done.

Im trying Mounty for Scherzer and Yates/Robertson.

Texas isn’t going to rebuild and has a need at first long term. 

[RVAOsFan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think there are tons of ways of getting it done.

Im trying Mounty for Scherzer and Yates/Robertson.

Texas isn’t going to rebuild and has a need at first long term. 

I like this, I think we can replace Mounty in the lineup with more at bats from Kjerstad and Mayo.

[Safelykept]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yes Luzardo has a non arm injury

 

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yes Luzardo has a non arm injury

Yes its a back injury, but I think earlier there was problem with the arm. Speaking of the Marlins, How bout Brian Hoeing, the Marlins have been every wherewith guy Starter, Bulk reliever short reliever. Definitely trending in the right directions. His one bad appearance this year was right before he went IL with Left Hamstring. Now hes back ,even with that one bad outing, WHIP of 1.05 FIP of 2.77,has options

[vab]

I would expect Scherzer to require an extension - he has a full no trade clause. 

[eddie83]

11 hours ago, Just Regular said:

"Late July", heh.

https://www.mlb.com/angels/news/anthony-rendon-returns-mike-trout-injury-update

Crochet - I do think there's some chance his Friday start against the Pirates is his last as a White Sock.     He reps the org at the All-Star game, but Getz can be reasonably sure he has the best guy and ask for best offers over the All-Star break.    At least some bidders at that moment would I think not temporize for a view of the mid-late July ballgames, and Crochet has special workload circumstances.

I remember when the White Sox got Eloy Jimenez, I believe the deal broke around the ASB - July 13, 2017 according to this.

https://www.milb.com/news/white-sox-acquire-eloy-jimenez-dylancease-from-cubs-241971790

 

Manny was dealt at the AS Break. Orioles aside I hope there are some moves made this year. 

[Allan Bryant]

15 minutes ago, vab said:

I would expect Scherzer to require an extension - he has a full no trade clause. 

I’m  not sure Elias would be willing to do that , I know I wouldn’t