Cowser and the strikeouts.

[Roy Firestone]

No one doubts Colton Cowser has talent and a power bat. But the truth is , his strikeout rate ( more than a third of his at bats end in strikeouts.)...is alarming. He has had 209 at bats this year, and 73 times he has struck out. In 209 games as an Oriole, he has struck out 208 times. It's obvious the "book" on him around the league says he cant handle the changeup or off speed pitches.So the opposition has relied on this to  get him out. But with 209 at bats you would like to see him somewhat figure it out. He has dropped more than 100 points in his batting average since his great run at the beginning of the year, which was exciting to watch.But for an occasional HR  or well hit ball, he still struggles with K's. We don't want to see him cross over into Chris Davis strike out territory...but he's getting there. It worries me.And I'm a big Cowser fan.

[Say O!]

Here is the statcast illustrator from baseball savant filtered to off speed 

[Sports Guy]

He’s fine 

[Aristotelian]

He is also .621 vs LHP (22/50 K/AB). He is a good player but I am not sold on him as a complete player. If he comes up in a big spot he is vulnerable to the tough lefty matchup. At this point I'd rather have a non slumping Mullins in CF vs RHP than Cowser (although I'd rather have Cowser than slumping Mullins). And I wish we had a RHB to play over both of them vs LHP.

[RZNJ]

Cowser has an issue making contact.   Thanks for bringing that to our attention.  Something to consider. 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He is also .621 vs LHP (22/50 K/AB). He is a good player but I am not sold on him as a complete player. If he comes up in a big spot he is vulnerable to the tough lefty matchup. At this point I'd rather have a non slumping Mullins in CF vs RHP than Cowser (although I'd rather have Cowser than slumping Mullins). And I wish we had a RHB to play over both of them vs LHP.

 It’s almost as if he’s not a finished product a few hundred at bats into his major league career.  Who would have thunk?

[waroriole]

Strikeouts have always been the concern with him. But you said it yourself. 200 ABs. He’s got time to figure it out. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 It’s almost as if he’s not a finished product a few hundred at bats into his major league career.  Who would have thunk?

I think people had higher expectations for him than they should have. I think most people thought he was going to be a better player than Westburg, for example. I don't think there is evidence he will be in the future. Not every top 20 prospect is going to put up Gunnar Henderson numbers, some will fail, some will be mediocre role players and some will be solid MLB regulars. We have no idea where Cowser will fall on that scale, but I'd likely rule out superstar.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think people had higher expectations for him than they should have. I think most people thought he was going to be a better player than Westburg, for example. I don't think there is evidence he will be in the future. Not every top 20 prospect is going to put up Gunnar Henderson numbers, some will fail, some will be mediocre role players and some will be solid MLB regulars. We have no idea where Cowser will fall on that scale, but I'd likely rule out superstar.

I’d rule out superstar for Westburg too.  Superstar is a title for very few.

I think Cowser will be a solid first division regular that puts together an occasional AS level season.

[Malike]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’d rule out superstar for Westburg too.  Superstar is a title for very few.

I think Cowser will be a solid first division regular that puts together an occasional AS level season.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that Westburg is going to be a star, I just don't see any scenario where Cowser given the flaws in both of their games comes out ahead as the better player going forward. Westburg is just quietly excellent.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

Oh, I'm not suggesting that Westburg is going to be a star, I just don't see any scenario where Cowser given the flaws in both of their games comes out ahead as the better player going forward. Westburg is just quietly excellent.

Well, there are obvious scenarios for that but I would agree that as of today, Westburg has less holes in his game but that only means so much, especially since he is a year younger.

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 It’s almost as if he’s not a finished product a few hundred at bats into his major league career.  Who would have thunk?

25 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think people had higher expectations for him than they should have. I think most people thought he was going to be a better player than Westburg, for example. I don't think there is evidence he will be in the future. Not every top 20 prospect is going to put up Gunnar Henderson numbers, some will fail, some will be mediocre role players and some will be solid MLB regulars. We have no idea where Cowser will fall on that scale, but I'd likely rule out superstar.

I never said he couldn't improve. We are starting to see some warning signs of weaknesses in his game. I think it is fair to point them out. His .580 May and .594 June are somewhat of red flags. That's basically 3 of 4 months so far that he has been a sub .700 hitter. He could certainly use a good month or two to show that's not who he is.

Also never said that his struggles were unexpected. Honestly based on what we saw last year he has exceeded my expectations, but that was primarily based on his outstanding April. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I never said he couldn't improve. We are starting to see some warning signs of weaknesses in his game. I think it is fair to point them out. His .580 May and .594 June are somewhat of red flags. That's basically 3 of 4 months so far that he has been a sub .700 hitter. He could certainly use a good month or two to show that's not who he is.

Also never said that his struggles were unexpected. Honestly based on what we saw last year he has exceeded my expectations, but that was primarily based on his outstanding April. 

His expected numbers show him to be a far better hitter. That matters even if the impatient fans don’t think so. 
 

[LGOrioles]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His expected numbers show him to be a far better hitter. That matters even if the impatient fans don’t think so. 
 

He has a 120 wRC+ against RHP’s and according to Fangraphs, he has been the 2nd best defensive OF’er and is top 15 among OF’ers in terms of base running value. Even with him underperforming his expected stats, if he was platooned more (like O’Hearn), the sentiment around his season would probably be much different. 

[Warehouse]

I respect Malike’s and Keith Law’s viewpoints on Cowser, but I’m still more positive on him than I was coming into the year (mostly due to defense).

The comparison to Luis Robert and Brent Rooker is apt with regard to swing and miss - see links below.
 

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