Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[StottyByNature]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He will get less years, almost for sure, because he’s two years older than Cole was when he hit free agency.  

I can’t say he won’t get a higher AAV, but for one thing, it depends how many years Burnes gets.  If it’s 6 years or less, he almost certainly gets a higher AAV than Cole.   But if it’s 7 years, I think it’s uncertain.  If it’s 8, I’d say probably not.

Putting aside age, I think Cole had a little better track record than Burnes will have going into FA.  It’s very close though.

Cole: 1195 IP, 127 ERA+, coming off a 20-5, 185 ERA+ season.

Burnes: 828 IP (probably ~910 at end of the year), 132 ERA+, coming off a year where his ERA+ is in the 155 ballpark.  

Of course, there’s always salary inflation to be considered.


 

I'd argue that Cole was a lot more attractive in his contract year.  His K/9 was actually going up, reaching his peak of 13.8 in his walk year.  Burnes was at his peak K/9 five years ago and has declined to his current 8.3 each year.  His FIP is a full run higher than his current ERA.  He's obviously still an excellent pitcher but I think GM's will be significantly more cautious with him than Cole.

I do not want to see the O's attempt to extend him.  They made a great trade and have an ace for the playoffs.  Any money they have to throw around this offseason should be used to attempt to buy out some free agency years of Henderson and maybe Rutschman.  

[Frobby]

I agree Cole was a little more attractive.  I also agree that extensions for Gunnar and Adley are more important than re-signing Burnes — if that be accomplished.   I wouldn’t mind us doing a front-loaded deal with Burnes with an opt-out that kicks in as Adley and Gunnar are wrapping up their arb years.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree Cole was a little more attractive.  I also agree that extensions for Gunnar and Adley are more important than re-signing Burnes — if that be accomplished.   I wouldn’t mind us doing a front-loaded deal with Burnes with an opt-out that kicks in as Adley and Gunnar are wrapping up their arb years.  

First of all, they can easily sign Burnes and extend players..if they want to.

Secondly, I think that would be my plan too. My goal would be 3 years of Burnes.

Would he sign a 5/200 deal where he makes 135-150M the first 3 years and then can opt out after that? 

I think that would be pretty ideal for both sides. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get an opt out after 2 or 3 years anyway.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m on record: 7/$252 mm, $36 mm AAV.  Cole got that AAV for 9 years, when he was two years younger than Burnes will be as a FA.  So subtract the two extra years.  

If that ends up his price range, I'd hope the Orioles would be in on that. He's an ace with a history or good health. 

[RVAOsFan]

12 hours ago, survivedc said:

I think it’s the other way around. If you win a WS it’s mission accomplished, no pressure to push all the chips in.

Normally I would agree but with this young nucleus we should be looking at this run just getting started.

[RVAOsFan]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I keep saying it... it's cool that Ruby throws T Shirts out, but we need him to throw some paper out.  

he hasn't owned the team in a free agency period yet lol, give him a chance at least

[gamiliel]

16 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Did Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan

Exactly, look at his mechanics, he won't need it. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If that ends up his price range, I'd hope the Orioles would be in on that. He's an ace with a history or good health. 

It’s always risky, just look at Cole.  Always heathy before he signed, healthy for four more years at ages 29-32.  Now has missed a lot of his age 33 season, isn’t pitching well, and may suffer the same fate as Bradish (we’ll see).   If Burnes was on the same track, he’d be injured in year 3 of his deal, rather than year 5.   Obviously every pitcher is different, but the risk of arm injuries is omnipresent.  Some are riskier than others, but they’re all risky.   

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s always risky, just look at Cole.  Always heathy before he signed, healthy for four more years at ages 29-32.  Now has missed a lot of his age 33 season, isn’t pitching well, and may suffer the same fate as Bradish (we’ll see).   If Burnes was on the same track, he’d be injured in year 3 of his deal, rather than year 5.   Obviously every pitcher is different, but the risk of arm injuries is omnipresent.  Some are riskier than others, but they’re all risky.   

Every contract is risky and particularly pitching contracts. But if we can get a guy like Burnes for 6-years around $36 mil a season I'm pulling trigger because a one two of him and Grayson is pretty good and there's not a lot in the system that suggests another ace is going to emerge.

[Fuegofuego]

Will any pitchers in 2026 or 2027 receive a contract comparable to Burnes' deal?  Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen? 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Every contract is risky and particularly pitching contracts. But if we can get a guy like Burnes for 6-years around $36 mil a season I'm pulling trigger because a one two of him and Grayson is pretty good and there's not a lot in the system that suggests another ace is going to emerge.

Until Bradish returns....

[baltfan]

16 hours ago, bpilktree said:

It is very hard to even go 8 innings when the team won’t let him go more than 100 pitches.  15 pitches an inning is pretty good and if you do that you only go about 7 innings.  He has went over 100 pitches 1 time and that is an organizational decision.  He went over 100 last year 12 times.  

While this is true, it has seldom been the case that they pulled the plug on him while he was dominating.

[Sports Guy]

The Max Fried situation bears watching. He is going on the IL with a forearm issue. We know what tends to lead to although it’s not definite.

However, if he does need TJ surgery, that takes him out of free agency this offseason, at least as a guy teams are going after with a big deal.

This would mean less competition for Burnes, which could mean we see his value rise even more. 
 

edit:

 

He is saying it’s not a big deal, so maybe they dodged a bullet here. Still, we will see what comes of it.

 

Edited July 22 by Sports Guy

[Rbiggs2525]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Max Fried situation bears watching. He is going on the IL with a forearm issue. We know what tends to lead to although it’s not definite.

However, if he does need TJ surgery, that takes him out of free agency this offseason, at least as a guy teams are going after with a big deal.

This would mean less competition for Burnes, which could mean we see his value rise even more. 
 

edit:

 

He is saying it’s not a big deal, so maybe they dodged a bullet here. Still, we will see what comes of it.

 

That really doesn’t bode well for Byrnes situation and us. Going from two big time arms to one really ups his price and probably puts the Dodgers in the driving seat.