2024 1st Round Pick (#22): Vance Honeycutt - OF - (Jr) North Carolina (NC)

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sydnor]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I probably missed it but has anyone said anything about his plate discipline?  He has swing and miss but are the swing decisions good or is he just some free swinger that occasionally makes great contact?

More from Law: He struck out 83 times this year, though, which I believe is a record for a first-round pick; he had more strikeouts than hits (81) and whiffed on nearly 32 percent of his swings. It’s an all-around issue, with chase and in-zone miss, and I don’t think it’s an easy fix. It’s a top 5 sort of upside, though, and the Orioles are among the few teams that can easily stomach the high risk of a pick like this one.

[Otter]

3 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

More from Law: He struck out 83 times this year, though, which I believe is a record for a first-round pick; he had more strikeouts than hits (81) and whiffed on nearly 32 percent of his swings. It’s an all-around issue, with chase and in-zone miss, and I don’t think it’s an easy fix. It’s a top 5 sort of upside, though, and the Orioles are among the few teams that can easily stomach the high risk of a pick like this one.

I've got mixed feelings on this pick.  I like going for high risk high reward picks later in the 1st round, but the numbers you quote illustrate just how risky his bat is.  This kid's profile may be just as risky as taking a college pitcher with concerns about control/command....and considering the position player depth and the lack of pitching throughout the system, I'd prefer a risky pitcher at this point.

[wse120372]

The O's player development staff must see something with these UNC kids that leads them to believe they can improve them. Last year it was Horvath and now Honeycutt. 

 

[interloper]

26 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

For reference, below are Career stats since 2014 (min 300 PAs) for players K% at least 32%, plus NCAA K% in final year pre-draft.

Player	MLB K%	wRC+	NCAA K%*
Matt Wallner	34.9%	136	17.5%
Brent Rooker	32.5%	129	18.8%
Edouard Julien	32.2%	123	25.9%
Miguel Sano	36.5%	114	n/a
Ryan Schimpf	33.3%	114	15.3%
James Outman	32.7%	110	22.0%
Chris Carter	32.6%	110	n/a
Luke Raley	32.1%	110	5.7%
Juan Francisco	36.3%	108	n/a
Ryan Noda	33.9%	108	30.0%
Jarrett Parker	32.0%	108	19.2%
Nolan Gorman	33.9%	107	n/a
Joey Gallo	38.1%	107	n/a
Patrick Wisdom	36.7%	106	17.8%
Brandon Marsh	32.7%	106	n/a
Elly de la Cruz	32.3%	105	n/a
Oneil Cruz	33.2%	104	n/a
Keston Hiura	35.9%	103	14.6%
Tom Murphy	32.1%	103	17.7%
Edwin Rios	33.7%	100	13.6%
Will Benson	35.1%	99	n/a
Alex Avila	33.8%	98	19.6%
Tyler Austin	36.9%	96	n/a
Blake Sabol	33.0%	96	15.0%
Trayce Thompson	32.7%	96	n/a
Jose Siri	34.7%	95	n/a
Chris Davis	34.5%	95	n/a
Drew Stubbs	35.6%	94	20.8%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	34.0%	94	n/a
Matt Davidson	34.8%	92	n/a
Bobby Dalbec	36.8%	90	30.7%
Daniel Palka	34.7%	90	21.4%
Drew Waters	32.8%	90	n/a

 

*final year pre-draft

Well that's not promising. 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

Are there any good examples of college draftees with lower career MLB K% than college K%? I’m guessing it’s pretty rare so I think 25% is a lot to ask.

That being said, if he is Kevin Kiermaier in CF, then he only needs ~80 wRC+ to be an average MLB player.  That’s certainly achievable with a K% between 26% and 36%.

 

I'm not sure, I read this. The risk is absolutely real, he's boom or bust, but there is incredible upside if he can cut down on the swing and miss. He was an elite football player as well, so not a one trick pony, hopefully, he's coachable, the Orioles think he is and with this draft being what it is, they went with upside over low ceiling in the first round.

The strikeout numbers stalk Honeycutt. According to Baseball America, in the bonus pool era that started in 2012, only 13 players from four-year universities who have been drafted in the first round had a career strikeout rate higher than 20%.

Honeycutt's is 26.3%.

[clapdiddy]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm not sure, I read this. The risk is absolutely real, he's boom or bust, but there is incredible upside if he can cut down on the swing and miss. He was an elite football player as well, so not a one trick pony, hopefully, he's coachable, the Orioles think he is and with this draft being what it is, they went with upside over low ceiling in the first round.

The strikeout numbers stalk Honeycutt. According to Baseball America, in the bonus pool era that started in 2012, only 13 players from four-year universities who have been drafted in the first round had a career strikeout rate higher than 20%.

Honeycutt's is 26.3%.

I'm guessing the thinking is "BPA" at this spot in a not-so-great draft.  Maybe they see enough in him that they can make some adjustments in his swing.   I agree with your assessment, though.   I think this is one they "roll the dice" on and see what they get.

[doccat]

I realize how tantalizing his tools are.   But the track record for these guys making it in the Majors is abysmal.  If we were going to go with a high-risk, high reward pick, I'd have preferred Brecht.  He could be converted into a closer with his unbelievable stuff if he didn't make it as a starter.   If Honeycutt can't make contact, he's nothing.

[CaptainRedbeard]

One thing to like about the floor for Honeycutt’s profile - he’s a righty hitter and true CF defender so he would fit well as a 4th OF. A higher bench floor than Bradfield as a righty in that sense. The Orioles are loaded with lefty outfielders. Obviously you want Honeycutt to be a 5+ WAR stud starting CF and that ceiling is why you make the pick, but if he never figures out how to handle righty sliders he could still be a solid bench platoon player/defensive replacement/pinch runner.

IMO everything I see about Honeycutt just reads like a faster Jud Fabian who can steal bases and play better CF defense. And that’s ok, that’s not a reach at this pick even for people not high on Honeycutt. This draft is so weak, the Orioles probably took him around the equivalent of the pick that they took Fabian.

CF is the only position the Orioles don’t have a clear core player for the next 5 years, especially if Cowser is going to be best suited for a corner as he loses some foot speed. I think the book is nearly closed on Fabian hitting his starting CF upside, but that complementary 4th OF outcome is still possible for him. Hopefully, at a minimum, for the long term one of Fabian or Honeycutt becomes the righty half of a CF platoon and Cowser/Bradfield/Etzel is the lefty half. 

[Warehouse]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

Well that's not promising. 

The college K% is mostly much lower than Honeycutt’s.  However, there are a few players with limited increases from final yr ncaa K% to MLB career K%.

- Westburg +2.8%
- Ryan Noda + 3.8% 
- Bobby Dalbec +6.1%
- Edouard Julien +6.3%

This range would result in MLB K% of 30.2% to 33.7% for Honeycutt, which is lower than most of the players listed above, all of whom have more than enough offensive production that would result in Honeycutt being an above average player if replicated.

[doccat]

Just now, doccat said:

I realize how tantalizing his tools are.   But the track record for these guys making it in the Majors is abysmal.  If we were going to go with a high-risk, high reward pick, I'd have preferred Brecht.  He could be converted into a closer with his unbelievable stuff if he didn't make it as a starter.   If Honeycutt can't make contact, he's nothing.

Jud Fabian comes to mind- great tools, great defense, can run well and lots of pop in the bat with 13 HR so far this year.  But K rate at 29% and hitting .233 as a 23 yr old in Double-A.  And I'm sure the O's have been working hard with him on his hitting....

 

 

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, wse120372 said:

The O's player development staff must see something with these UNC kids that leads them to believe they can improve them. Last year it was Horvath and now Honeycutt. 

 

It may have as much to do with the UNC coaching too.  Meaning, the O's see gaps in the coaching but like the tools.  Maybe UNC was coaching "swing at strikes and hunt FB" where our approach with him might be "swing at pitches you do damage too".  Not saying that's what it is, but could be something like that.

The path to success is improving hit tool/swing decisions. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, doccat said:

I realize how tantalizing his tools are.   But the track record for these guys making it in the Majors is abysmal.  If we were going to go with a high-risk, high reward pick, I'd have preferred Brecht.  He could be converted into a closer with his unbelievable stuff if he didn't make it as a starter.   If Honeycutt can't make contact, he's nothing.

The track record for guys with great arms and an inability to throw strikes is also pretty abysmal, even when converted to RP. Really, the track record for 22nd overall picks is pretty abysmal.

Outside of some RPs - Felix, Jorge Lopez, and Cionel Perez - the Orioles haven’t shown great ability to develop the “great arm no control” prototype. Perhaps in large part because they don’t use high draft capital to get them, but it’s clearly not something they think is playing to their developmental strengths. They do like the “good pitch characteristics but bad results” draft prototype, but that’s slightly different - they’ll take college guys with bad numbers but not glaring control problems.

Honeycutt’s profile is definitely something they really like, and they obviously feel their system is better than others at smoothing over questionable hit tools. They did that with high schoolers Gunnar and Mayo, and by far the success story prototype to date for a college hitter in this system is Westburg - but Stowers and Beavers are other examples with some degree of success (still TBD, particularly Beavers).  

I would have been very excited by Brecht but much more lament not taking him at 32 than at 22 instead Honeycutt.

[interloper]

I do wonder if some of the strategy is, "at least get a guy who tantalizes with enough big tools to be included in a trade". I mean that's kind of what people are saying about EBJ and Beavers and Horvath. Guys with tools who aren't quite putting it all together, but who are logical guys to go in a trade because they do have some ML-quality tools. 

 

[tntoriole]

15 hours ago, baltfan said:

I worry about guys that have questionable hit tools.   

Meaning guys that can’t hit?  Lol