Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, bpilktree67 said:

Grayson is 24 years old with just over a year of major league experience.  He isn't a number 1 right now but has been improving and decent numbers this season.  Skubal 23 and 24 season had ERA of 5.46 and 4.34 whiles Burnes was coming off a lost season with an ERA over 8 for the Brewers.  Grayson has given up 2 runs or less in 13 of his 17 starts which is one of the best in the league percentage wise.  That shows me he is getting close to being that number 1 starter but he has to learn how to limit those few starts that he is struggling which is something that makes Burnes great.  He doesn't have those bad starts that blows up his ERA.  

The difference between Burnes and Grayson is not luck or the occasional off day/night. It is consistent command. One has it the other does not. 

Maybe that changes in the future? Maybe it does not?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Spakman said:

Where is this negativity? Just cause people are willing to trade him doesn’t mean they are  so negative about his potential.

If you haven't seen many negative opinions on this board concerning Jackson Holliday, I would say that you have read his thread or this board that much. Some posters criticized trivial things like how he looks young or the fact that he chose to get married at aged 20.

[Bemorewins]

57 minutes ago, now said:

For context, Erik Bedard:
Seattle, 2.5 seasons:
IP: 81, 83, 91; WAR 1.1, 2.0, 1.0
3.5 more seasons (4 teams):
WAR 0.2, -0.4, 1.0, -0.4

Is there any other context for Skubal or is he destined to be another Erik Bedard in your opinion? Any other archetypes for his career?

[GoldGlove21]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The difference between Burnes and Grayson is not luck or the occasional off day/night. It is consistent command. One has it the other does not. 

Maybe that changes in the future? Maybe it does not?

Could be pitch mix and pitch movement. I think it is a lot mental. I do not mean that as in Burnes is a bulldog and Grayson isn't because I do see Grayson as very competitive. I mean it in as when things do not go his way is he thinking too much or letting it get to him. I also think that Grayson is a bit odd in that he could be cruising and then just totally lose it. You don't see that with Burnes as much.

[SemperFi]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you haven't seen many negative opinions on this board concerning Jackson Holliday, I would say that you have read his thread or this board that much. Some posters criticized trivial things like how he looks young or the fact that he chose to get married at aged 20.

Or he has Only One Oriole on ignore and his thread is a mere 45 pages.....

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, GoldGlove21 said:

Could be pitch mix and pitch movement. I think it is a lot mental. I do not mean that as in Burnes is a bulldog and Grayson isn't because I do see Grayson as very competitive. I mean it in as when things do not go his way is he thinking too much or letting it get to him. I also think that Grayson is a bit odd in that he could be cruising and then just totally lose it. You don't see that with Burnes as much.

It's the ability to consistently command pitches. That's what separates them. Both have excellent stuff. One can execute over and over routinely. The other has inconsistency when it comes to locating pitches sometimes.

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, Spakman said:

Sorry, I haven’t looked at that thread and I didn’t know that there was that many idiots here.

It's an oversimplification by a few on here so don't fall for that. Some people around here love to generalize "the board" as one way when they are allowing a few to manipulate that opinion in their heads. 

I see it all the time and usually by the same people who seem to believe they are so much smarter than the "dumb board" members. Go read any orioles Facebook or "X" and then come back in here. It's like night and day.

They are typically the same people who scream that all Republicans or Democrats believe (add in your extreme view) because they saw some far right or left person's view highlighted in a meme. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Or he has Only One Oriole on ignore and his thread is a mere 45 pages.....

If that is the case, that is probably a wise move.

[GoldGlove21]

41 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I think I might do that actually, but I’d probably be trying to swap out one of either Basallo or Kjerstad for Norby. 

If Skubal comes to Baltimore Basallo, Mayo, or Holliday will headline the package. The biggest advantage in a trade is that we have 3 top-15 overall prospects. The biggest disadvantages in dealing for Skubal is that Detroit really doesn't need to move him at all and that we have 3 top-15 overall prospects. They could be working with another team and want their top prospect who is 40 overall and then add on the 65th overall guy. With us they are holding out for one of those top 3 and I do not blame them. As of right now the Orioles have too many holes for a deep postseason run IMO. They are one starting pitcher injury away from losing control of this season.

[now]

5 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

 They are one starting pitcher injury away from losing control of this season.

And, just for the sake of balance...

They are one starting pitcher (trade) away from losing one or a handful of their best* long-term prospects, for a short-term, high-risk gamble.

* notably incl. some ranked among best in MLB

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

He's been under a microscope for years now, they didn't stop showing up or make any long-term decisions about him since the "fake injury". It sounds like a conspiracy theory.

Under what microscope?  He went 1-1. How many teams scouted him before the draft. Definitely not advanced scouts. 

Advanced scouts figure things out. Ask Holliday about what the scouts already knew about his hitting. 

[Just Regular]

Some of the GM's job is negotiating and shaving the small pieces, but big pieces and protecting our big 3, I do keep looking at Cowser #4 and Kjerstad #5, and wonder who says no to that 2-for-1.

I know in the name of Andy MacPhail percolating, Scott Harris would be trying to drag that last Kam Mickolio out of Elias.

 

We seem to like Auburn pitchers, and I wouldn't mind seeing what Orioles player development could do with Casey Mize if the deal was expanded.   Or Mize as a surprise stand alone target.

[Malike]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Under what microscope?  He went 1-1. How many teams scouted him before the draft. Definitely not advanced scouts. 

Advanced scouts figure things out. Ask Holliday about what the scouts already knew about his hitting. 

So you honestly believe nobody but the Orioles scouted Holliday before the draft, they are faking his injury to hide his defense from advanced scouts who haven't been watching him every game since he turned pro? That's pretty mind-blowing.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

You wanna throw in a tractor with our farmhands, too?

That’s better than a 4 player deal that starts with Basallo and Kjerstad.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The difference between Burnes and Grayson is not luck or the occasional off day/night. It is consistent command. One has it the other does not. 

Maybe that changes in the future? Maybe it does not?

Not saying you're wrong, but.... unless you were expecting him to repeat his Cy Young season, this version of Burnes should have exceeded most people's expectations I think.  He's been far more consistent than we had any reason to expect out of him given his 2023 - he allowed 5+ runs in his starts 4 times before the ASB last year, and this year he hasn't done it once.  He's been somewhat fortunate too but I don't think most people would have had reason to think he'd be this consistent when we traded for him.

 

In comparison, Rodriguez has allowed 5+ runs 3 times.

 

Some of this is that I think Burnes' experience lets him pitch when he doesn't have all his pitches, while Rodriguez just lets his stuff rip and lives and dies by it.