I really had hope for Cade Povich, but he simply isnt a major league pitcher

[btdart20]

I only saw the first 2 innings, so take it with the limitations it has... 

He got a little unlucky with the runs in the first 2 innings.  The no call on the "check swing" in the 1st led to a run (and a bunch of pitches).  And Westburg's rough 2nd inning led to both runs (and a bunch of pitches).  

Povich missed his spots a few times too.  That 0-2 CB that was dumped into LF for a 2B was telegraphed.  Hitter absolutely knew what pitch was coming.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Povich had that one really good start against Atlanta.   For a guy who struck out a ton of guys in the minors there’s just no evidence of that kind of stuff in the majors.    Combine that with bad control and you don’t have much.   I have to believe that Povich can develop into a #4 or #5 but even that’s hard to see right now.   He has the fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball.    Can’t say any of them looked plus but that variety is what got him the K’s in the minors.  Never really saw him having all 4 pitches working, sometimes not even 1 or 2.   
 

The options for #5 starter right now are pretty scary.

Suarez has a 4.03 ERA in 14th starts.   That is probably better than most teams 5th starter.

 

[waroriole]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Povich had that one really good start against Atlanta.   For a guy who struck out a ton of guys in the minors there’s just no evidence of that kind of stuff in the majors.    Combine that with bad control and you don’t have much.   I have to believe that Povich can develop into a #4 or #5 but even that’s hard to see right now.   He has the fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball.    Can’t say any of them looked plus but that variety is what got him the K’s in the minors.  Never really saw him having all 4 pitches working, sometimes not even 1 or 2.   
 

The options for #5 starter right now are pretty scary.

Even that start against Atlanta was a little smoke and mirrors. The Braves were struggling terribly in offense at the time. Until he develops plus command, he’s not a ML pitcher. Too much trying to fool people instead of throwing strikes. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Suarez has a 4.03 ERA in 14th starts.   That is probably better than most teams 5th starter.

 

A contender should have a 5th starter that's better then average.

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Suarez has a 4.03 ERA in 14th starts.   That is probably better than most teams 5th starter.

 

Right now he’s on fumes.  If we had to start Suarez every 5 days for the rest of the season, that ERA is going up, up, up.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

A contender should have a 5th starter that's better then average.

 

I don’t think that’s necessarily true but, right now, I don’t think Suarez is average.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right now he’s on fumes.  If we had to start Suarez every 5 days for the rest of the season, that ERA is going up, up, up.

Yup. Suarez has a well protected 4.03 ERA. If we told him he had to tough threw 5 IP no matter what a few times this year, then that ERA would be closer to 5 IP.
 
You could win a sprint with Suarez in a Game 4, but he’s probably only going 3+ tops. He’s sort of like Steve Johnson in a way. Gave us some big IP in a playoff run but then faded and the magic worked for the time we needed it to work. 

You can’t plan to let that magic make/break a playoff series. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Even that start against Atlanta was a little smoke and mirrors. The Braves were struggling terribly in offense at the time. Until he develops plus command, he’s not a ML pitcher. Too much trying to fool people instead of throwing strikes. 

I don’t see him as trying to fool people.   I can’t think of one game where he had a consistently good changeup.   Maybe one game where he had a consistently good curve.  And his fastball command is below average.   Add it all up and you have a pitcher who can’t survive in the majors.  
 

Obviously, we didn’t see him at his best but the time for tryout camp is over.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yup. Suarez has a well protected 4.03 ERA. If we told him he had to tough threw 5 IP no matter what a few times this year, then that ERA would be closer to 5 IP.
 
You could win a sprint with Suarez in a Game 4, but he’s probably only going 3+ tops. He’s sort of like Steve Johnson in a way. Gave us some big IP in a playoff run but then faded and the magic worked for the time we needed it to work. 

You can’t plan to let that magic make/break a playoff series. 

His whip was 1.100 in April, .895 in May when he relieved 7 and started 2, and over 1.6 in both June and July when he’s done nothing but start.   To the bullpen and let his arm, hopefully, bounce back.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Povich should not throw another pitch with the big league club this year but I’m not giving up on him yet. He was throwing 6 pitches yesterday, adding a sinker to his four seamer, cutter, curve, sweeper, change. He has great feel to manipulate the baseball, but his command is horrible and the velo is lacking for it to all come together. 

He needs to make some mechanical adjustments to improve his command and maybe simplify his pitch mix (at least temporarily) to make that happen. He can’t be doing that at the MLB level. 

His four seamer clearly is not going to get whiffs against MLB hitters the way it does against AAA hitters. He does, however, get enough soft contact and pop ups against it that it can be effective. But he needs an in-zone pitch that can get whiffs, and that has to be the cutter. His cutter and sweeper have great shape but he leaves both leaking back into the middle of the plate all the time. He needs to figure out how to command both glove side to pitch inside/off the plate to righties. 

[Sammy Seagull]

7 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

12 base runners in 4 and a third. Yes, the defines was poor and gave Toronto extra outs, but Povich couldn't put anyone away and again walked 5 with 7 hits. Not worthy of another start at this level. Even if Elias doesnt make another move he shouldn't see the light of day in the majors. Just another poor performance and it's looking like he wont get much better over time.No business giving him another chance.Not this year, anyway. Awful. Chayce McDermott isnt any better either.

Once again Roy is correct, the man wasn't been wrong yet! 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right now he’s on fumes.  If we had to start Suarez every 5 days for the rest of the season, that ERA is going up, up, up.

I don't really know how a prediction like that is reliable.   He has pitched 160 and 170 innings is the KBO the last two years.   He probably can pitch a lot of innings. 

There are off days so he will not be pitching every 5th day all the time.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't really know how a prediction like that is reliable.   He has pitched 160 and 170 innings is the KBO the last two years.   He probably can pitch a lot of innings. 

There are off days so he will not be pitching every 5th day all the time.

My predictions aren’t reliable.  It’s my opinion based on watching him pitch over the last two months when his WHIP has been over 1.6.

Have you got a more reliable prediction?

[jabba72]

Here's Povich's pitch mix, it looks like his 4 seamer works pretty well. And the Sinker and Changeup after that. The Curve is getting crushed though.

 

Pitch Tracking

 

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2024	Four Seamer	283	191	92	40.5	92.2	63	50	8	7	0	0	1	4	47	.160	.148	.220	.269	.263	.275	87.8	24	2331	6.4	12.5	5.2
2024	Curveball	130	122	8	18.6	75.9	31	30	13	6	6	0	1	8	22	.433	.335	.733	.550	.503	.387	88.0	0	2418	6.3	26.4	18.6
2024	Cutter	104	57	47	14.9	88.3	25	21	7	3	1	0	3	3	18	.333	.330	.810	.724	.513	.480	90.6	25	2485	6.3	28.8	13.0
2024	Sweeper	70	10	60	10.0	83.0	26	24	8	2	4	1	1	6	18	.333	.166	.708	.332	.455	.245	84.4	25	2413	6.4	21.1	20.7
2024	Changeup	64	61	3	9.2	86.1	18	15	3	2	0	0	1	3	13	.200	.203	.400	.372	.289	.282	83.5	18	1739	6.4	17.9	17.6
2024	Sinker	47	14	33	6.7	91.4	11	8	1	1	0	0	0	1	7	.125	.199	.125	.257	.271	.335	93.8	-4	2101	6.4	11.8	9.1

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

My predictions aren’t reliable.  It’s my opinion based on watching him pitch over the last two months when his WHIP has been over 1.6.

Have you got a more reliable prediction?

Prediction:  We could see Suarez, Povich, McDermott and/or Irvin as the 5th starter over the next two months.