Os vs KC in WC round

[Just Regular]

AL Active Roster K-bb ranks of the SP probables - 120 IP minimum for a view of Kremer, 46 guys at the end of the 2024 AL.

(17) Burnes v. (7) Ragans

(23) Eflin v. (24) Lugo

(32) Kremer v. (28) Wacha

ERA they line up 2.92 Burnes, 3.00 Lugo, 3.14 Ragans, 3.35 Wacha, 3.59 Eflin, 4.10 Kremer

Brady Singer is 26th and Michael Lorenzen is 46th (aka, dead last) if he makes the ALWC roster.   They are bullpen options for Matt Quatraro this series.

An average AL club ending the season with about three starters covering 120 innings feels about right for this moment in the Driveline era.

[terpoh]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

Ragans 186IP, 146H, 15HR, 67BB and 223K's.

Skubal 192IP, 142H, 15HR, 35BB, 228K's.

Pick your poison, both should do the job about equally.

If the point was "Skubal is better" you kind of proved that for them. More innings, more K's, less ER, less Walks, less hits, better W/L. Across the board.

Ragans is very very very good- but Skubal is better, and the runaway for AL Cy Young. Either is capable of shutting down an offense- and Ragans did just that earlier this year. But we also roughed up Ragans in the other start. No matter who we face, we're going to find things that make it tough, its the playoffs. Lets keep playing good ball and get payback for 2014. 

[Sports Guy]

The Os have some good numbers vs Lugo and especially Wacha.

Kremer has dominated this group of Royals hitters while this Royals group has a 792 OPS vs Eflin, including a  475 slugging.

[JR Oriole]

I am glad we got KC over Detroit, but by no means do I think they are easy.  Far from it.  But the reality is that everybody is scary in the postseason because it means so much. Houston beat us 5 times out of 7 and our 2 wins were very close. Not to mention they have 7 straight ALCS appearances. Cleveland has an insane bullpen and Jose Ramirez is a big time, clutch player. New York has the Soto/Judge monster and the aura of the pinstripes. Detroit has Skubal and their screwy arsenal of Gumbys who can pitch every game and never get tired.  KC has good pitching, Witt, and Salvy to remind us of 2014. LA has 3 first ballot Hall of Famers in their lineup. Philly has a great lineup, great starters, and tons of postseason experience. Milwaukee kicked the crap out of us earlier this year to the tune of 42 hits over 3 games. San Diego has no weaknesses anywhere. Arizona is the best offense in the game if they get in. Atlanta is injured but is always solid and the Mets walked us off twice.  

How about this path? Let's knock out KC and get revenge for the 2014 ALCS. Then take out New York and get revenge for the 1996 ALCS. Then beat Cleveland and get revenge for the 1997 ALCS. And to put the cherry on top, let's knock out the Mets and get revenge for the 1969 WS.  We can get all of our paybacks in one glorious postseason and put the demons of the past to bed!

[Matty2D]

KC is much better to get. They kind of slid down the stretch. Detroit was the hottest team in baseball. Even though Burnes was lights out twice vs. the Tigers, going against Skubal in game 1 and potentially losing that in a 3 game series is a big break. Ragans isn't a slouch but we did hit him up last time and is just much more hittable. 

[CTBear]

12 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I am glad we got KC over Detroit, but by no means do I think they are easy.  Far from it.  But the reality is that everybody is scary in the postseason because it means so much. Houston beat us 5 times out of 7 and our 2 wins were very close. Not to mention they have 7 straight ALCS appearances. Cleveland has an insane bullpen and Jose Ramirez is a big time, clutch player. New York has the Soto/Judge monster and the aura of the pinstripes. Detroit has Skubal and their screwy arsenal of Gumbys who can pitch every game and never get tired.  KC has good pitching, Witt, and Salvy to remind us of 2014. LA has 3 first ballot Hall of Famers in their lineup. Philly has a great lineup, great starters, and tons of postseason experience. Milwaukee kicked the crap out of us earlier this year to the tune of 42 hits over 3 games. San Diego has no weaknesses anywhere. Arizona is the best offense in the game if they get in. Atlanta is injured but is always solid and the Mets walked us off twice.  

How about this path? Let's knock out KC and get revenge for the 2014 ALCS. Then take out New York and get revenge for the 1996 ALCS. Then beat Cleveland and get revenge for the 1997 ALCS. And to put the cherry on top, let's knock out the Mets and get revenge for the 1969 WS.  We can get all of our paybacks in one glorious postseason and put the demons of the past to bed!

I had a similar thought but was thinking of the 2012 ALDS for Yankees since I was much younger in ‘96. I know not all O’s fan support the Ravens but they had a similar run of overcoming their demons in their last SB run starting with the Colts, then Peyton Manning and lastly, the Patriots. Your scenario would be very therapeutic for a lot of us. 

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

AL Active Roster K-bb ranks of the SP probables - 120 IP minimum for a view of Kremer, 46 guys at the end of the 2024 AL.

(17) Burnes v. (7) Ragans

(23) Eflin v. (24) Lugo

(32) Kremer v. (28) Wacha

ERA they line up 2.92 Burnes, 3.00 Lugo, 3.14 Ragans, 3.35 Wacha, 3.59 Eflin, 4.10 Kremer

Brady Singer is 26th and Michael Lorenzen is 46th (aka, dead last) if he makes the ALWC roster.   They are bullpen options for Matt Quatraro this series.

An average AL club ending the season with about three starters covering 120 innings feels about right for this moment in the Driveline era.

The pitching matchups look really even. So the series could be decided by which offense shows up. 

O's ranks: Runs (4), OPS (4), OBP (11), HR (2), SB (18), K (18)

KC: Runs (18), OPS (14), OBP (19), HR (20), SB (11), K (29)

Fair to say we have a significant edge in offense although it may be closer post-AS break. 

Note, Eflin's ERA you have there is for the season. For the O's he put up 2.60 although his K/BB slipped  after that weird start vs NYY. 

[Spy Fox]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The pitching matchups look really even. So the series could be decided by which offense shows up. 

O's ranks: Runs (4), OPS (4), OBP (11), HR (2), SB (18), K (18)

KC: Runs (18), OPS (14), OBP (19), HR (20), SB (11), K (29)

Fair to say we have a significant edge in offense although it may be closer post-AS break. 

Here's the rankings for the stats you cited, in the second half alone. Not so different:

O's: R 5, OPS 11, OBP 9, HR 5, SB 21, K 14

KC: R 13, OPS 17, OBP 18, HR 21, SB 13, K 27

Similar to us, KC's offense was ice cold for a long stretch in the second half.  

[Warehouse]

I would have preferred Detroit but it doesn’t really matter.  It’s really important to win game 1. No team has ever lost game 1 and came back to win a three-game wild card series. 
 

As I mentioned in another thread, I would start Cowser and Mullins in the outfield.

I would lean against starting McCann.  From a run creation perspective, I think this is suboptimal to having Adley catch and Kjerstad (or Rivera) DH.  Even if you think McCann can do as well against Ragans, you then can’t replace him in the later innings without losing the DH (I don’t think there is any chance of Adley not starting).

Now maybe McCann improves run prevention enough to offset the disadvantage on offense, though defensive metrics don’t support that. If you believe McCann improves Burnes’ performance via pitch calling or comfort level, then maybe it makes sense.  I don’t think there is a load management reason not to start Adley.

[Malike]

Just now, Warehouse said:

I would have preferred Detroit but it doesn’t really matter.  It’s really important to win game 1. No team has ever lost game 1 and came back to win a three-game wild card series. 
 

As I mentioned in another thread, I would start Cowser and Mullins in the outfield.

I would lean against starting McCann.  From a run creation perspective, I think this is suboptimal to having Adley catch and Kjerstad (or Rivera) DH.  Even if you think McCann can do as well against Ragans, you then can’t replace him in the later innings without losing the DH (I don’t think there is any chance of Adley not starting).

Now maybe McCann improves run prevention enough to offset the disadvantage on offense, though defensive metrics don’t support that. If you believe McCann improves Burnes’ performance via pitch calling or comfort level, then maybe it makes sense.  I don’t think there is a load management reason not to start Adley.

I too would have preferred Detroit. Ultimately, it's meaningless, they just need to beat the team they are playing.

[Sports Guy]

 

[LookitsPuck]

Royals are hoping that Vinny Pasquantino might be able to come back early for this WC series. Will be testing his thumb out today.

[CTBear]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Royals are hoping that Vinny Pasquantino might be able to come back early for this WC series. Will be testing his thumb out today.

I’m really glad we were able to get Westy, Ramon and Mounty a quick rehab followed by a full week of major league ABs. If they were coming right off the IL, I wouldn’t be so optimistic throwing them right back in the lineup.