Mock Ten

[allstar1579]

If he's asking for Matt Wieters money then no one should pay him.

Being the best bat in a weak group doesn't mean you should get paid as much or more than stronger bats in stronger years.

[Stotle]

Being the best bat in a weak group doesn't mean you should get paid as much or more than stronger bats in stronger years.

You would think this is common sense...

[allstar1579]

You would think this is common sense...

If anything lately, I've learned it's far from it

[Agent0]

If he's asking for Matt Wieters money then no one should pay him.

It's possible that AM wouldn't even have paid Wieters "Matt Wieters money", if AM was doing the drafting and negotiating.

I hope he does fall to us at 5.

[Tmac3]

There have been four players to get 6 million dollar signing bonuses. Wieters and Alvarez (Pirates 08 second overall pick) got 6 million. Tim Beckham (#1 overall by the Rays in 08) got 6.15 mil and Buster Posey (#5 overall in 08 by San Fran) got 6.2 mil. It is said that Ackley wants 6 million, he will more than likely get it, and he is most compared to Chase Utley, so I believe he is definitely worth it. Wieters fell to 5 in '07 because none of the top 4 wanted to pay that 6 mil and the O's could get Ackley if the same thing occurs again. Ackley could really play anywhere, he only played first at UNC because he had Tommy John surgery. He is a great fielding 1st baseman and he is projected to play 2B or CF in the majors. Since those positions are taken for the O's I see him playing one of the corner infield spots (assuming he falls to the O's). The O's need position prospects because after Snyder, they are starting to look slim (Florimon Jr., Waring, and Joseph are great in Single A but are still unproven). My congrats to the 6 Keys who made the Single A all star game (Matusz, Britton, Lebron, Florimon, Waring and Joseph).

[allstar1579]

There have been four players to get 6 million dollar signing bonuses. Wieters and Alvarez (Pirates 08 second overall pick) got 6 million. Tim Beckham (#1 overall by the Rays in 08) got 6.15 mil and Buster Posey (#5 overall in 08 by San Fran) got 6.2 mil. It is said that Ackley wants 6 million, he will more than likely get it, and he is most compared to Chase Utley, so I believe he is definitely worth it. Wieters fell to 5 in '07 because none of the top 4 wanted to pay that 6 mil and the O's could get Ackley if the same thing occurs again. Ackley could really play anywhere, he only played first at UNC because he had Tommy John surgery. He is a great fielding 1st baseman and he is projected to play 2B or CF in the majors. Since those positions are taken for the O's I see him playing one of the corner infield spots (assuming he falls to the O's). The O's need position prospects because after Snyder, they are starting to look slim (Florimon Jr., Waring, and Joseph are great in Single A but are still unproven). My congrats to the 6 Keys who made the Single A all star game (Matusz, Britton, Lebron, Florimon, Waring and Joseph).

Whoa whoa whoa...ok where to start?

Ackley is nothing like Utley and I have never even heard a comp like that. Ackley is an all contact hitter with just a bit of pop, he may never hit more than 12 HR in a season. Also, the only people "projecting" him to play at 2B are us here on the hangout who think he may be athletic enough to give a shot there, he hasn't shown any ability to play middle infield and it is a gamble to try. That all being said, there is no way he should get $6 mil, he is not a $6 mil player, if someone is desperate enough to pay that for him then good for them, but it should not be us.

We are thin at positions, but you have to draft for the best talent, not for need and you don't want to be overpaying for weak positional talent. If he were in last year's draft, Ackley may not go top 10. Should the #11 pick get $6 mil because you need position players when you have other players out there that are just as if not more talented and will sign for slot?

[JTrea81]

Whoa whoa whoa...ok where to start?

Ackley is nothing like Utley and I have never even heard a comp like that. Ackley is an all contact hitter with just a bit of pop, he may never hit more than 12 HR in a season. Also, the only people "projecting" him to play at 2B are us here on the hangout who think he may be athletic enough to give a shot there, he hasn't shown any ability to play middle infield and it is a gamble to try. That all being said, there is no way he should get $6 mil, he is not a $6 mil player, if someone is desperate enough to pay that for him then good for them, but it should not be us.

We are thin at positions, but you have to draft for the best talent, not for need and you don't want to be overpaying for weak positional talent. If he were in last year's draft, Ackley may not go top 10. Should the #11 pick get $6 mil because you need position players when you have other players out there that are just as if not more talented and will sign for slot?

Where to start here?

Ackley is most certainly worth $6 million as Callis himself said he would take him over Brian Matusz last year.

Ackley is the best hitter in the draft by far. And he's far from weak positional talent. So what if he only hits 15 HR, 40+ 2Bs, and hits .300+ and steals 20-30 bases?

That type of player is extremely valuable. He could be our future leadoff hitter to replace Brian Roberts. And if he's good enough in CF, perhaps he moves Jones to LF.

He's been rated the #2 player in the draft by just about all outlets and publications. So let's not undersell the guy here. We'd be extremely lucky to be able to draft him at #5, just like we were Wieters. Ackley is an extremely special player.

[Tmac3]

Whoa whoa whoa...ok where to start?

Ackley is nothing like Utley and I have never even heard a comp like that. Ackley is an all contact hitter with just a bit of pop, he may never hit more than 12 HR in a season. Also, the only people "projecting" him to play at 2B are us here on the hangout who think he may be athletic enough to give a shot there, he hasn't shown any ability to play middle infield and it is a gamble to try. That all being said, there is no way he should get $6 mil, he is not a $6 mil player, if someone is desperate enough to pay that for him then good for them, but it should not be us.

We are thin at positions, but you have to draft for the best talent, not for need and you don't want to be overpaying for weak positional talent. If he were in last year's draft, Ackley may not go top 10. Should the #11 pick get $6 mil because you need position players when you have other players out there that are just as if not more talented and will sign for slot?

If you've never heard him compared to Utley then you obviously haven't heard ESPN baseball analyst's Keith Law and HOF analyst Peter Gammons compare him to Utley and say he is likely to hit 15-25 HR's a year.

[Tmac3]

allstar1579 here is a quote from a Peter Gammons article.

"Ackley, the son of former Red Sox minor league catcher John Ackley, might be a Chase Utley at second. Or a Darin Erstad in center. "I don't know if I'll ever coach a better player," Fox says. "Or a better person."

He goes on to say, "There are those people that when you meet them, you know. They look you in the eye and give off a presence. Derek Jeter always had it. Joe Mauer. Grady Sizemore. Torii Hunter. Derrek Lee. David Wright. Chase Utley. Ryan Zimmerman. Darin Erstad."

He is talking about how Ackley has the 'it' factor...I dont know about you but I wouldn't mind the Orioles picking up any of those players...maybe he wont hit 25 consistently but he'll hit 25 HR's a couple times in his career...He'll be a 15-25 guy with a high average and lots of speed. At the beginning of 2011 the lineup could be Roberts, Ackley, Jones, Wieters, Markakis, Scott, Reimold...

[Duke2010]

Where to start here?

Ackley is most certainly worth $6 million as Callis himself said he would take him over Brian Matusz last year.

Ackley is the best hitter in the draft by far. And he's far from weak positional talent. So what if he only hits 15 HR, 40+ 2Bs, and hits .300+ and steals 20-30 bases?

That type of player is extremely valuable. He could be our future leadoff hitter to replace Brian Roberts. And if he's good enough in CF, perhaps he moves Jones to LF.

He's been rated the #2 player in the draft by just about all outlets and publications. So let's not undersell the guy here. We'd be extremely lucky to be able to draft him at #5, just like we were Wieters. Ackley is an extremely special player.

Look, I like Ackley, and would be very pleased if he fell to us. However, there is no way that he is worth 6 million. You say that just because Callis says he would take him over Matusz that his value should dramatically increase? Last August, we signed Matusz for roughly 3.2 million, and I would put Ackley's value as being close to that dollar figure. He's got a great bat, and I'm sure he's a great guy, but your obsession with the man is unreal.

And as far as Ackley playing second base...that would add on time to his development, and if he fails to adapt, then you've lost time when his bat could contribute to the big club. Would you take the risk on the additional 2+ years or so that it would take for his defense to become league average at second base?

[allstar1579]

Where to start here?

Ackley is most certainly worth $6 million as Callis himself said he would take him over Brian Matusz last year.

Ackley is the best hitter in the draft by far. And he's far from weak positional talent. So what if he only hits 15 HR, 40+ 2Bs, and hits .300+ and steals 20-30 bases?

That type of player is extremely valuable. He could be our future leadoff hitter to replace Brian Roberts. And if he's good enough in CF, perhaps he moves Jones to LF.

He's been rated the #2 player in the draft by just about all outlets and publications. So let's not undersell the guy here. We'd be extremely lucky to be able to draft him at #5, just like we were Wieters. Ackley is an extremely special player.

Being the best hitter in this year's draft does not make someone a strong positional talent. He's not a second round guy or anything, but compared to players last year, he's not a top 10 guy. His value is inflated because he is the best of the positional players this year, so it makes him look better than he is.

He's worth $6 million dollars because Callis says he is? This coming from the same guy who thought J. Parker and the immortal D. Mesoraco were going to be drafted before Matt Wieters? link. Ok, as usual, you know best JT, and you put all your faith into whatever "expert" you think suits your argument at that moment.

That is just the problem, he is not a "special" player. He's a good player that isn't going to do one thing particularly well. He'll hit for good average, but he doesn't have much power, you can't bank on 15HR he may never hit more than 10. He's got good speed, but that doesn't translate to SB, there is more to it than that, and his SB totals have never been through the roof, so I wouldn't go banking on those either. He's not an elite talent, you just want him to be because he's the only hitter in this draft that you can even get by with trying to say he is.

You are so willing to move him into CF and move Jones, but you don't even know if he can throw a ball from 1B to 3B right now, he hasn't exactly been showcasing his arm now has he? You get points for being an optimist, but when judging who to spend a first round pick, you better be thinking "what is the worst case production from this guy and is that worth a first rounder" instead of what the best case scenario is and blindly skipping along to the podium.

[SrMeowMeow]

Being the best hitter in this year's draft does not make someone a strong positional talent. He's not a second round guy or anything, but compared to players last year, he's not a top 10 guy. His value is inflated because he is the best of the positional players this year, so it makes him look better than he is.

He's worth $6 million dollars because Callis says he is? This coming from the same guy who thought J. Parker and the immortal D. Mesoraco were going to be drafted before Matt Wieters? link. Ok, as usual, you know best JT, and you put all your faith into whatever "expert" you think suits your argument at that moment.

That is just the problem, he is not a "special" player. He's a good player that isn't going to do one thing particularly well. He'll hit for good average, but he doesn't have much power, you can't bank on 15HR he may never hit more than 10. He's got good speed, but that doesn't translate to SB, there is more to it than that, and his SB totals have never been through the roof, so I wouldn't go banking on those either. He's not an elite talent, you just want him to be because he's the only hitter in this draft that you can even get by with trying to say he is.

You are so willing to move him into CF and move Jones, but you don't even know if he can throw a ball from 1B to 3B right now, he hasn't exactly been showcasing his arm now has he? You get points for being an optimist, but when judging who to spend a first round pick, you better be thinking "what is the worst case production from this guy and is that worth a first rounder" instead of what the best case scenario is and blindly skipping along to the podium.

Epic. I love listening to people who really know what they're talking about. It's incredibly refreshing.

[allstar1579]

allstar1579 here is a quote from a Peter Gammons article.

"Ackley, the son of former Red Sox minor league catcher John Ackley, might be a Chase Utley at second. Or a Darin Erstad in center. "I don't know if I'll ever coach a better player," Fox says. "Or a better person."

He goes on to say, "There are those people that when you meet them, you know. They look you in the eye and give off a presence. Derek Jeter always had it. Joe Mauer. Grady Sizemore. Torii Hunter. Derrek Lee. David Wright. Chase Utley. Ryan Zimmerman. Darin Erstad."

He is talking about how Ackley has the 'it' factor...I dont know about you but I wouldn't mind the Orioles picking up any of those players...maybe he wont hit 25 consistently but he'll hit 25 HR's a couple times in his career...He'll be a 15-25 guy with a high average and lots of speed. At the beginning of 2011 the lineup could be Roberts, Ackley, Jones, Wieters, Markakis, Scott, Reimold...

Thank you for telling me where you heard that would you mind sending the link so I can read the rest though? I must have missed that one. That is ok, I like Gammons, but he is referring to his mental make-up not his bat. I still haven't heard anyone project him to hit 15-25 HR. This is a guy that had to have a career year in order to hit 20 with a metal bat, most of them being off junk pitchers. If you are expecting him to start hitting that many against MLB pitching with a wood bat, there is some saying about chickens and hatching I might interest you in. You have to carefully read the context when people name drop like that, they were referring to his "it" factor, which is fine, I am a fan of that myself, but you know who else has that same "it" factor? Adam Kennedy. That mental toughness doesn't make you a better physical player, its just a good bonus to have.

And Keith Law? The guy that on June 4th 2007 had Matt Wieters going 18th to the Cardinals? The same guy who has had Borchering going 4th to the Pirates, only to top that by next putting a guy there that in his previous mock he didn't even have him in the first round? And you are going to put a lot of stock into how much thought he gives player analysis?

Ackley is the consensus 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft this year because he is the best of a weak positional crop. Drop him into last year's draft and he is not a top 10 player.

[Greg Pappas]

Thank you for telling me where you heard that would you mind sending the link so I can read the rest though? I must have missed that one. That is ok, I like Gammons, but he is referring to his mental make-up not his bat. I still haven't heard anyone project him to hit 15-25 HR. This is a guy that had to have a career year in order to hit 20 with a metal bat, most of them being off junk pitchers. If you are expecting him to start hitting that many against MLB pitching with a wood bat, there is some saying about chickens and hatching I might interest you in. You have to carefully read the context when people name drop like that, they were referring to his "it" factor, which is fine, I am a fan of that myself, but you know who else has that same "it" factor? Adam Kennedy. That mental toughness doesn't make you a better physical player, its just a good bonus to have.

And Keith Law? The guy that on June 4th 2007 had Matt Wieters going 18th to the Cardinals? The same guy who has had Borchering going 4th to the Pirates, only to top that by next putting a guy there that in his previous mock he didn't even have him in the first round? And you are going to put a lot of stock into how much thought he gives player analysis?

Ackley is the consensus 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft this year because he is the best of a weak positional crop. Drop him into last year's draft and he is not a top 10 player.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4171726&name=gammons_peter

http://usctrojans31.wordpress.com/2008/07/01/looking-ahead-dustin-ackley/

There are others, including me in the MLB-Draft.com write up last year, that have mentioned Utley comps. This was well before Gammons' mentioning it.

Ackley doesn't project to hit 30 HR's a year, but he does have the potential for 15-20+ and has shown that he's nowhere near a slap hitter. Chase Utley power is unlikely, but possible. The comparisons were made to evoke visions of that sort of star quality... much as I mentioned Boggs and Gwynn, great lefty hitters.

Keith Law is a fairly well-respected media member with a strong scouting background and a bevy of inside contacts... how he goes about sharing this info does raise a few eyebrows, but curiously his mentioning of Tony Sanchez to the Pirates at four has since gained more validity via other reputable sources like BA. BA is not saying it's happening, but they were hearing what Law heard... so you never know.

Regarding the view that Ackley would not have been in the top ten last year... I feel differently about that. I believe that Ackley is a special hitting talent, much in the same way I did Eric Hosmer last year. The difference is that Hosmer is so young and has years to get there, whereas Ackley would likely not embarrass himself in the Majors right now. He will need time to adapt to wood and play a full year or more in the minors, but I have little doubt he'll be an outstanding ML'er. When one of the very best Amateur Draft reviews say he may be the best hitter in a decade, and nearly every major scouting source feels his bat is special... well, I tend to buy into that. His position is a potential issue, his bat is not. How much he's worth is another issue entirely, and I can understand the hesitation to want to pay him monster money... he may very well not be worth it when all is said and done. There are risks inherent to taking him.

I could be wrong... but sometimes it's cool to see things in a different light.

[Abadie]

First off, great debate....it is nice hearing the opinions of people who know what they're talking about.

I've been following the draft for about 6+ months now, talking with friends and doing mock drafts ourselves. Not once have I seen Ackley fall all the way to 5. Is it really possible for this to happen?

The Pirates just sent a letter out to their fan base for their reasoning to trading Nate McClouth. I highly doubt he passes that organization let alone the Padres. I love the discussion and all, but do you guys/gals really think he falls to us at 5???