What young pitching would you deal?

[JTrea81]

If Scott could learn 1st base(which he should be able to), he will likely outproduce AGonz.

I'd love to make that a bet. There is no way Luke Scott would outproduce AGon if he was an Oriole.

[Big Mac]

2nd in HR, 1st in BB in the NL and he plays in a pitcher's park.

He could hit 40+ at OPACY and have a .380-.400 OBP. How is that not elite? And that's not mentioning his defense.

He's hitting .247, his OBP is very good, but I think part of that is he's been pitched around a lot because SD has an awful lineup.

His career OPS is .852, that's not elite for a 1B.

You are vastly overrating him. A much better target from SD would be Kyle Blanks, he won't cost nearly as much as Gonzalez.

Remember all the talent you wanted to give up for Hardy? Yeah I think it's safe to say you're not very good at this.

[Big Mac]

I'd love to make that a bet. There is no way Luke Scott would outproduce AGon if he was an Oriole.

He's outproducing him this year and has for his career.

Take the blinders off JT.

[Lucky Jim]

2nd in HR, 1st in BB in the NL and he plays in a pitcher's park.

He could hit 40+ at OPACY and have a .380-.400 OBP. How is that not elite? And that's not mentioning his defense.

If we can win with him, I'm sure he'd extend if we offer him a market value contract. The AL East is a prime landing spot and OPACY is the perfect hitter's park for him, much better than Boston which hurts LH hitters.

It's a little over half a year. The previous few years, he's been worth 3.0-3.5 WAR. Which is quite good. But not elite.

So, you're saying "buy high" and hope that we contend w/in two years - while hurting our hopes to contend after those two years.

Just not wise.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Rep to you.

If anyone thinks getting Gonzalez is going to make is a contender, they are sorely mistaken.

<b>If Scott could learn 1st base(which he should be able to), he will likely outproduce AGonz.</b>

I think most would agree AGon won't make us a contender. However, this statement is a little out there.

First off, if we had both Scott and AGon then we'd have 1B and DH set so having one over the other isn't necessary.

Secondly, Scott has played great this year but he is by all accounts a streaky player. Actually, seems like he's hitting his slow streak right about now.

At this point, would you be surprised if he didn't get close to 30 HR's? Even if AGon is having a career year, he's still quite a bit younger then Scott and playing in a pitcher's park.

I'm sorry, but you can't really compare AGon and Scott. Scott's a good player but AGon is getting to the point where he could very well be an elite player at 1b considering his defense is good and his offense is great.

[Lucky Jim]

I think most would agree AGon won't make us a contender. However, this statement is a little out there.

First off, if we had both Scott and AGon then we'd have 1B and DH set so having one over the other isn't necessary.

Secondly, Scott has played great this year but he is by all accounts a streaky player. Actually, seems like he's hitting his slow streak right about now.

At this point, would you be surprised if he didn't get close to 30 HR's? Even if AGon is having a career year, he's still quite a bit younger then Scott and playing in a pitcher's park.

I'm sorry, but you can't really compare AGon and Scott. Scott's a good player but AGon is getting to the point where he could very well be an elite player at 1b considering his defense is good and his offense is great.

I agree w/ this. Though I still wouldn't trade for AG.

[Big Mac]

I think most would agree AGon won't make us a contender. However, this statement is a little out there.

First off, if we had both Scott and AGon then we'd have 1B and DH set so having one over the other isn't necessary.

Secondly, Scott has played great this year but he is by all accounts a streaky player. Actually, seems like he's hitting his slow streak right about now.

At this point, would you be surprised if he didn't get close to 30 HR's? Even if AGon is having a career year, he's still quite a bit younger then Scott and playing in a pitcher's park.

I'm sorry, but you can't really compare AGon and Scott. Scott's a good player but AGon is getting to the point where he could very well be an elite player at 1b considering his defense is good and his offense is great.

Luke Scott- .863 career OPS, 122 OPS+

Adrian Gonzalez- .852 OPS, 128 OPS+

Now, I think Gonzalez is a better option considering his defense. But is that small difference worth Arrieta, Reimold, Britton and Snyder?

The answer to that question is obvious, IMO.

[JTrea81]

It's a little over half a year. The previous few years, he's been worth 3.0-3.5 WAR. Which is quite good. But not elite.

So, you're saying "buy high" and hope that we contend w/in two years - while hurting our hopes to contend after those two years.

Just not wise.

No I'm saying buy the bat with the currency of young pitching, and you give the remaning young pitchers a consistent offensive threat and defensive support as they are developing.

And you show your other players that you are serious about winning so they are motivated and hungry and will give maximum effort all the time.

Then you have a leg up on Gonzalez when it comes to FA or an extension because he's played with the players, hopefully enjoyed himself and won games and experienced playing the AL East. You sell him on the Orioles the two years he is under control.

And if worst comes to worst, you walk away with two draft picks because Gonzalez is likely to produce as a Type A FA that any team would be willing to forfeit picks for or you can do Billy Beane did with Holliday.

[Big Mac]

No I'm saying buy the bat with the currency of young pitching, and you give the remaning young pitchers a consistent offensive threat and defensive support as they are developing.

And you show your other players that you are serious about winning so they are motivated and hungry and will give maximum effort all the time.

Then you have a leg up on Gonzalez when it comes to FA or an extension because he's played with the players, hopefully enjoyed himself and won games and experienced playing the AL East. You sell him on the Orioles the two years he is under control.

And if worst comes to worst, you walk away with two draft picks because Gonzalez is likely to produce as a Type A FA that any team would be willing to forfeit picks for or you can do Billy Beane did with Holliday.

Arrieta, Snyder, and Reimold are almost guaranteed to be more valuable to the ML team over the next two years than Gonzalez. The fact that you don't see this is laughable.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Luke Scott- .863 career OPS, 122 OPS+

Adrian Gonzalez- .852 OPS, 128 OPS+

Now, I think Gonzalez is a better option considering his defense. But is that small difference worth Arrieta, Reimold, Britton and Snyder?

The answer to that question is obvious, IMO.

No, I agree, I would definitely not trade him for that. Even if we could sign an extension and have him until his mid 30's I wouldn't trade him for that.

Sorry if I wasn't clear about that. AGon is only 27 and is probably gonna put up better numbers over the rest of his career then Scott is.

I would try and get AGon for something centering around Arrieta but I definitely would not trade Reimold, our starting LF'er or Britton who seems close to becoming the next piece in the Big 4.

Snyder I would possibly trade if only for the fact that AGon would probably take the position he was most accustomed to.

Like they say, you gotta give talent to get talent. But I am in no way advocating such a crazy trade. I would do something like Arrieta, Snyder and one lower level player.

I mean, c'mon, the guy is not Halladay here.

[Big Mac]

No, I agree, I would definitely not trade him for that. Even if we could sign an extension and have him until his mid 30's I wouldn't trade him for that.

Sorry if I wasn't clear about that. AGon is only 27 and is probably gonna put up better numbers over the rest of his career then Scott is.

I would try and get AGon for something centering around Arrieta but I definitely would not trade Reimold, our starting LF'er or Britton who seems close to becoming the next piece in the Big 4.

Snyder I would possibly trade if only for the fact that AGon would probably take the position he was most accustomed to.

Like they say, you gotta give talent to get talent. But I am in no way advocating such a crazy trade. I would do something like Arrieta, Snyder and one lower level player.

I mean, c'mon, the guy is not Halladay here.

I agree with all of this.

An offer of Arrieta, Snyder and a lower-level player is about as high as I would go.

[Lucky Jim]

No I'm saying buy the bat with the currency of young pitching, and you give the remaning young pitchers a consistent offensive threat and defensive support as they are developing.

And you show your other players that you are serious about winning so they are motivated and hungry and will give maximum effort all the time.

Then you have a leg up on Gonzalez when it comes to FA or an extension because he's played with the players, hopefully enjoyed himself and won games and experienced playing the AL East. You sell him on the Orioles the two years he is under control.

And if worst comes to worst, you walk away with two draft picks because Gonzalez is likely to produce as a Type A FA that any team would be willing to forfeit picks for or you can do Billy Beane did with Holliday.

So you trade him based on (i) a marginal overall improvement in offense and the hope that it helps the pitchers' psychology; (ii) some intangible "show" of seriousness; (iii) the hope that we can resign him; (iv) two draft picks that won't come close to replacing what we've given up.

(i) is not worth what we're giving up. Even four and a half WAR isn't worth that to the pitchers, as it's likely only a couple of wins above anyone else the O's can stick in there;

(ii) is some imaginary value that you keep bringing up (here, in the Sano context) that you can't quantify - which makes it ideal for your mostly imaginary calculations;

(iii) we're nearly as likely sign him as a FA anyway;

(iv) this is a paltry return for what we've given up.

This is patently poor value calculation, poor risk management, short-sighted, and largely imaginary.

[Sports Guy]

Arrieta, Snyder, and Reimold are almost guaranteed to be more valuable to the ML team over the next two years than Gonzalez. The fact that you don't see this is laughable.

Well, if it takes 3 players to be more valuable than 1, does that really matter? I mean, what is going to be more valuable...Gonzalez, Pie and say a guy like David Hernandez or the 3 you mentioned?

That's tough to say.

[Sports Guy]

So you trade him based on (i) a marginal overall improvement in offense and the hope that it helps the pitchers' psychology; (ii) some intangible "show" of seriousness; (iii) the hope that we can resign him; (iv) two draft picks that won't come close to replacing what we've given up.

(i) is not worth what we're giving up. Even four and a half WAR isn't worth that to the pitchers, as it's likely only a couple of wins above anyone else the O's can stick in there;

(ii) is some imaginary value that you keep bringing up (here, in the Sano context) that you can't quantify - which makes it ideal for your mostly imaginary calculations;

(iii) we're nearly as likely sign him as a FA anyway;

(iv) this is a paltry return for what we've given up.

This is patently poor value calculation, poor risk management, short-sighted, and largely imaginary.

Should we have signed BRob?

Should we trade Scott, Guthrie and Sherrill now?

[Big Mac]

Well, if it takes 3 players to be more valuable than 1, does that really matter? I mean, what is going to be more valuable...Gonzalez, Pie and say a guy like David Hernandez or the 3 you mentioned?

That's tough to say.

It does if you're giving up those 3 players for one guy who won't equal their collective production.

I'm curious what do you think of Gonzalez? What would you give up for him?