Prospect # 11 : RHP - Jesse Beal

[hoosiers]

It does, but really it did not replace the quality of the guys that left. Josh Bell is the only one who really fit that bill. No one else is really worth all that much from the trades. Johnson and Jacobson just are not that special. There is some helium from this year's and last year's draft, but no one is setting the world on fire. It is good that we are spending money to get better on this front . . . but it has manifested in a lot of C/C+ talent.

It is difficult to replace the amount of talent Reimold, Tillman, and Wieters had. It should not be expected to easily replace that.

I imagine most league-wide rankings will slot us in around 12-16 when we were about 9th last year. With all of these C+ guys, we could see a large jump next year. Britton will probably be top 50 instead of top 125. Hopefully a couple of the other guys will break out.

Agree with this generally. Not sure we will remain at top 15 system. I have thought most of the year we would be 14-20 entering 2010.

Agree there are lots of guys with early C talent who could move up next year.

[crawdad]

Agree with this generally. Not sure we will remain at top 15 system. I have thought most of the year we would be 14-20 entering 2010.

Agree there are lots of guys with early C talent who could move up next year.

Yeah, I haven't spent enough time on the other lists to know exactly where people will fall. Losing Wieters was going to be huge. I think BA will probably slot us around 14. I think something like Wang's quantitative approach would put us around 18 or 19 because our prospects are pitching heavy.

[LookinUp]

Agree with this generally. Not sure we will remain at top 15 system. I have thought most of the year we would be 14-20 entering 2010.

Agree there are lots of guys with early C talent who could move up next year.

Maybe when the top 30 is done we can have a better discussion about the stregnth of the organization. I fully expect to drop in the rankings, but I'm quite happy with where we stand.

When we compare the two lists, we'll obviously notice the top end talent that we lost. However, we'll also notice the never-will-be's that fell off of the list, the maybe's that dropped/fell off and the relative upside and age of the guys that replaced them.

Our system would obviously look better if Avery and Hoes had performed better in A- ball, if Adams hadn't been injured and if Henson had taken the steps that many hoped for...and of course if Rowell did anything.

Still, while I understand a lower ranking, I'm actually more bullish on this system than I was last year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Our system would obviously look better if Avery and Hoes had performed better in A- ball, if Adams hadn't been injured and if Henson had taken the steps that many hoped for...and of course if Rowell did anything.

Yes, stagnation at the lower levels really hurt. Nothing against Jesse Beal, but I don't think we'd be looking at him at #11 if Rowell had taken off or if Avery and/or Hoes had showed better at Delmarva.

I'll be very interested to see the reports on Avery and Hoes. Stockstill was unusually aggressive with them, jumping them over Aberdeen at their age. I'd like to know how the O's view their 2009 seasons, and I wonder if their struggles in full-season ball will influence his handling of Ohlman and others down the road.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yes, stagnation at the lower levels really hurt. Nothing against Jesse Beal, but I don't think we'd be looking at him at #11 if Rowell had taken off or if Avery and/or Hoes had showed better at Delmarva.

I'll be very interested to see the reports on Avery and Hoes. Stockstill was unusually aggressive with them, jumping them over Aberdeen at their age. I'd like to know how the O's view their 2009 seasons, and I wonder if their struggles in full-season ball will influence his handling of Ohlman and others down the road.

To me its ironic that when Hoes and Avery were both pushed to Delmarva, I thought that Hoes was polished enough for the jump and was totally against bringing up Avery. In the end, they both finished pretty closely, but Avery was better there for the majority of the season....

As for the Beal pick, you have to realize what kind of toolset this guy has. He has a ton of projection left and as we speak sits in the 88-90 range, so Im guessing he can touch 91-92 with his sinking fastball. Thats quite a bit up from just last year when we drafted him. He has plus command and w/o reading the report Tony wrote, I remember it being said he has a plus curve. I personally dont see whats not to like, if he continues his progression and adds another few MPH when its all said and done you have yourself a TOR SP, depending on of course the progression of a changeup which I am completely in the dark about having to do with Beal. But, if he ends up being a guy who sits in the low 90's touching higher with his sinking fastball, having a plus curve and pin point command, we will be pretty happy. Especially considering thats what we can hope for from Hobgood, but no matter what happens with Hobby, its unlikely his command will ever end up as good as Beal's considering how much of a head start Beal has while they are the same age.....

[LookinUp]

Yes, stagnation at the lower levels really hurt. Nothing against Jesse Beal, but I don't think we'd be looking at him at #11 if Rowell had taken off or if Avery and/or Hoes had showed better at Delmarva.

I'll be very interested to see the reports on Avery and Hoes. Stockstill was unusually aggressive with them, jumping them over Aberdeen at their age. I'd like to know how the O's view their 2009 seasons, and I wonder if their struggles in full-season ball will influence his handling of Ohlman and others down the road.

I hope so. Patience is a virtue, but AM (or Stockstill) seemed to lose it with those two guys.

[Tony-OH]

I hope so. Patience is a virtue, but AM (or Stockstill) seemed to lose it with those two guys.

Honestly, I don't think it was a bad idea to push these guys because it's about getting them at bats. I was not surprised at Avery's season since he was supposed to be raw, but Hoes lack of plate discipline was the single most shocking thing I saw this year. To me, he was a huge disappointment because he could not control the strike zone. I could care less about a lack of home runs, but I would have bet a lot of money that Hoes would not have put up the poor K:BB ratio that he did.

All is not lost though, and Hoes in particular may be one of those guys who will be a better hitter at higher levels because pitchers pitch more around the plate. Either way, I was disappointing in their stats this year, especially when you see the number of failed prospects who played in the Sally League at 19-years old and put up much better stats. Considering neither are plus defenders, that doesn't bode well for me.

It's one of the reasons why I did not personally like Joe's draft last year because to me he got away from a flow of taking a high risk/high reward pick and offset that with a more mature player. He took Avery, followed by Hoes, then took a toolsy raw college guy in Hudson (who was not a consensus 4th round talent in the community) and followed that up with a midget SS with no power in college.

Joe's draft this year was much more balanced in my opinion and I love the overslots, especially where we took them.

[Stotle]

Honestly, I don't think it was a bad idea to push these guys because it's about getting them at bats. I was not surprised at Avery's season since he was supposed to be raw, but Hoes lack of plate discipline was the single most shocking thing I saw this year. To me, he was a huge disappointment because he could not control the strike zone. I could care less about a lack of home runs, but I would have bet a lot of money that Hoes would not have put up the poor K:BB ratio that he did.

All is not lost though, and Hoes in particular may be one of those guys who will be a better hitter at higher levels because pitchers pitch more around the plate. Either way, I was disappointing in their stats this year, especially when you see the number of failed prospects who played in the Sally League at 19-years old and put up much better stats. Considering neither are plus defenders, that doesn't bode well for me.

It's one of the reasons why I did not personally like Joe's draft last year because to me he got away from a flow of taking a high risk/high reward pick and offset that with a more mature player. He took Avery, followed by Hoes, then took a toolsy raw college guy in Hudson (who was not a consensus 4th round talent in the community) and followed that up with a midget SS with no power in college.

Joe's draft this year was much more balanced in my opinion and I love the overslots, especially where we took them.

The Sally League is a breaking ball league, so if Hoes hasn't refined his pitch-ID, I'm not particularly surprised his strikezone command fell off. It's probably the best breaking stuff he's ever seen. That said, I don't disagree with what you said. I'm disappointed, but not too surprised. Frederick should be an interesting test.

Also, I agree with your statement regarding last-year's draft. Seemed like a little too much of the same 2-5. I actually don't dislike any of the individual picks, but having them all together means there's a chance you get little production out of the group.

[QBsILLEST1]

The Sally League is a breaking ball league, so if Hoes hasn't refined his pitch-ID, I'm not particularly surprised his strikezone command fell off. It's probably the best breaking stuff he's ever seen. That said, I don't disagree with what you said. I'm disappointed, but not too surprised. Frederick should be an interesting test.

Also, I agree with your statement regarding last-year's draft. Seemed like a little too much of the same 2-5. I actually don't dislike any of the individual picks, but having them all together means there's a chance you get little production out of the group.

Miclat was IMO the biggest disappointment. He hit very well last year and seemed like he was well on his way to being some sort of a prospect for us, then fell on his face this year. Im personally looking for both Hoes and Miclat to be much better next year. Avery, I dunno....Hudson who did the best out of these 4 this season has absolutely no power and will probably be a 4th OFer. To me the Hudson pick was the most surprising last year....I dont udnerstand the pick....where is the upside?

[LookinUp]

Honestly, I don't think it was a bad idea to push these guys because it's about getting them at bats.

Yeah, I understand the reasoning behind it but the decision happened to be too aggressive with these two, I think. I say this with the benefit of hindsight, but I think a lot of people were saying the same thing at the time.

In any event, they have to get better. At a minimum, each player got a strong dose of reality last year. Hopefully their failures help them learn where they really need to improve.

[alexei606]

Miclat was IMO the biggest disappointment. He hit very well last year and seemed like he was well on his way to being some sort of a prospect for us, then fell on his face this year. Im personally looking for both Hoes and Miclat to be much better next year. Avery, I dunno....Hudson who did the best out of these 4 this season has absolutely no power and will probably be a 4th OFer. To me the Hudson pick was the most surprising last year....I dont udnerstand the pick....where is the upside?[/QUOTE]

Well, he was rated as the best college athlete in his draft class, has 80 speed on a 20-80 scale and was a two sport player who was considered quite raw even though a college kid. He seems to have adjusted fairly well to full season ball after missing practically all of SS ball due to injury after he was drafted. IIRC, Tony stated at that time, Hudson was the one player that could least afford missing time due to his rawness and age. He also apparently had some trouble in Fall Instructionals and was sent home to "clear his head". So, with his rawness, lack of playing time and "frustration" last year, it was a good year for Hudson, IMO. Though, he doesn't have the power he does have potentially game changing speed. Doc Shorebird also stated he saw him improve his routes in the OF (unlike Avery).

I don't know - may be a very good defensive OF, with great speed and base stealing ability, hitting lead off while employing small ball and hopefully BBs to get his OPB up. Though, I do think he does have a better chance of developing some gap power than either Angle or Miclat, if he "bulks up" ala Roberts (meaning bulking up, not being the doubles machine that Roberts turned out to be). Whatever, Frederick will show more about what the Orioles have in Hudson.

[QBsILLEST1]

Miclat was IMO the biggest disappointment. He hit very well last year and seemed like he was well on his way to being some sort of a prospect for us, then fell on his face this year. Im personally looking for both Hoes and Miclat to be much better next year. Avery, I dunno....Hudson who did the best out of these 4 this season has absolutely no power and will probably be a 4th OFer. To me the Hudson pick was the most surprising last year....I dont udnerstand the pick....where is the upside?[/QUOTE]

Well, he was rated as the best college athlete in his draft class, has 80 speed on a 20-80 scale and was a two sport player who was considered quite raw even though a college kid. He seems to have adjusted fairly well to full season ball after missing practically all of SS ball due to injury after he was drafted. IIRC, Tony stated at that time, Hudson was the one player that could least afford missing time due to his rawness and age. He also apparently had some trouble in Fall Instructionals and was sent home to "clear his head". So, with his rawness, lack of playing time and "frustration" last year, it was a good year for Hudson, IMO. Though, he doesn't have the power he does have potentially game changing speed. Doc Shorebird also stated he saw him improve his routes in the OF (unlike Avery).

I don't know - may be a very good defensive OF, with great speed and base stealing ability, hitting lead off while employing small ball and hopefully BBs to get his OPB up. Though, I do think he does have a better chance of developing some gap power than either Angle or Miclat, if he "bulks up" ala Roberts (meaning bulking up, not being the doubles machine that Roberts turned out to be). Whatever, Frederick will show more about what the Orioles have in Hudson.

My thing is that in the 4th round there were plenty of other guys with much better upside and less raw available. 80 speed is great, but what does it matter if his 80 point speed never is utilized in the ML because his other tools arent ML caliber. To me, he seems like a 4th OFer who could possibly surprise us and develop into something slightly better. I dont like that projection from a 4th round pick. Compare that to our 09 4th rounder who has the upside of a TOR starter, 3 above average or better pitches and wasnt even an overslot pick.....

[waroriole]

I will say this for Beal, he's very young. At the same age (18), Bergesen pitched only 5.2 innings at Bluefield, and he spent the next year at Aberdeen posting a 4.82 ERA. Britton pitched at Bluefield to a 5.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 5.6 K/9, and then pitched in Aberdeen at age 19. If Beal was able to put up decent numbers at Delmarva next year, he'd be pretty far ahead of the game.

What you say makes sense, but then I read your signature and now I don't know what to think.

[alexei606]

My thing is that in the 4th round there were plenty of other guys with much better upside and less raw available. 80 speed is great, but what does it matter if his 80 point speed never is utilized in the ML because his other tools arent ML caliber. To me, he seems like a 4th OFer who could possibly surprise us and develop into something slightly better. I dont like that projection from a 4th round pick. Compare that to our 09 4th rounder who has the upside of a TOR starter, 3 above average or better pitches and wasnt even an overslot pick.....

Of course Hudson could "just" be a fourth OF. I was just speculating on what Jordan might see in Hudson. All that I'm saying is that he is a premium (I hope I can still use this word ) athlete with unreal speed and quickness out of the box who has shown that despite the amount of rawness that he has, he played pretty well in his first season (which happened to be a full season league) of professional ball. He showed improvement defensively with his routes according to Doc Shorebird, whereas Avery did not. He has earned his promotion to Frederick with the season he put up. I hope that he does bulk up and can at least develop gap power.

Sure, there could have been better picks at #4, but, whatever, I prefer to see what Hudson does in Frederick and hopefully beyond, since we can't do a re-draft. I happened to believe at the time that Melville should have been drafted before Avery and Hoes, he went to KC in the fourth round before Baltimore picked Hudson.

Just found this write-up from Stotle at draft time that seems to jive with what I stated earlier:

Stotle's Notes

Hudson does not have the raw talent of Xavier Avery, and he is closer to fully-baked, limiting his ceiling a bit. Still, it will be interesting to see what happens now that he is devoting himself exclusively to baseball. His first 18 months in the organization will be telling. If everything starts to fall into place, Baltimore could have the makings of a future lead-off hitter with solid defense in the 8-spot. Even if his batting does not fully develop, he has the potential to carve out a 4th or 5th outfield spot on the merits of his defense and base running, alone. This is a decent high-upside pick, again heavily dependant on the ability of the Orioles low-minors system to lay the groundwork and begin the development of a player currently more athlete than baseball player.

Stotle also mentioned issues with swing mechanics and hitting approach that seem to limit his power - definitely two areas that the 'Orioles low-minors system" development should be hard at work trying to correct and improve.

Thus, I stand by my earlier post, which was this:

I don't know, may be a very good defensive OF, with great speed and base stealing ability, hitting lead off while employing small ball and hopefully BBs to get his OPB up. Though, I do think he does have a better chance of developing some gap power than either Angle or Miclat, if he "bulks up" ala Roberts (meaning bulking up, not being the doubles machine that Roberts turned out to be).

[freethebirds]

I just feel last year we had a deeper system, and yes, that would have been my feeling no matter who Tony had put in this spot. It's kind of inevitable when you graduate that many guys from the minors in one year.

You are right but I think it says a lot that we are not entirely barren after graduating the amount of guys we did. The thing is we need to continue to have good draft classes to keep our farm stocked. If the organizational philosophy is that we cannot compete with the Sox and Yankees on the giant contracts handed out to the superstars, then we need to get as much as we can from the draft and internationally. We made a big step in that direction draft wise (but not internationally) by going over slot and spending a lot. If those guys pan out, sort of like Arrieta did, it will give us an above average farm for some time.