Jon Morosi: Orioles agree with Kevin Gregg

[scOtt]

I agree with everything you say here. However, it isn't that big a storm cloud compared to, say, the Baez deal. And Gregg does have experience in the AL East, which is a plus in his favor. This is a decent move in terms of improving the bullpen, but not the most cost efficient one. I still want to know the exact terms.

It's even a better deal than Gonzalez, even if he redeems himself this year.

[bsebllfan4life]

Let's look at all the relievers the Orioles have signed to long term contracts in the last ten years:

Steve Kline

Chad Bradford

Jamie Walker

Danys Baez

Mike Gonzalez

That's 46.5 million total for 339 innings of 5.4 ERA relief. Replacement level for relievers in the AL is 4.5: that's a total of 30 runs, or 3 wins, below replacement.

Giving multi year deals to average relievers is a terrible idea, I don't know why we should still have to listen to This Time It's Different at this point.

It's different this time because Gregg is not some avg reliever as some of the others listed. Gregg was 4th in the league last year with 37 saves in the AL east. To me a closer that avg 30 saves a year for the last 4 years is not just some avg. reliever

[Crazysilver03]

It's different this time because Gregg is not some avg reliever as some of the others listed. Gregg was 4th in the league last year with 37 saves in the AL east. To me a closer that avg 30 saves a year for the last 4 years is not just some avg. reliever

And that is why you actually have to look at his peripheral stats.

[Moose Milligan]

It's different this time because Gregg is not some avg reliever as some of the others listed. Gregg was 4th in the league last year with 37 saves in the AL east. To me a closer that avg 30 saves a year for the last 4 years is not just some avg. reliever

What about the fact that he, on average, has walked over 4 batters per nine innings for the past 3 years?

[bsebllfan4life]

What about the fact that he, on average, has walked over 4 batters per nine innings for the past 3 years?

Well that's obviously not good, I do think with some closers though because of the innings pitched, the number tends to get more inflated. Papelbon is still considered a pretty good closer (albeit not what he was a few years back) and his walk totals per 9 are above 3 for the past two seasons. If you look at the stats for closers a number of the top guys have pretty high bb/9 numbers.

[anselmO]

What about the fact that he, on average, has walked over 4 batters per nine innings for the past 3 years?

What about the fact that he, on average, is better than any of our relief options of the past 3 years?

[RVAbird]

What about the fact that he, on average, is better than any of our relief options of the past 3 years?

We have had plenty of relievers post ERAs below 4.03 and xFIPs below 4.30 (Gregg's career averages).

[bsebllfan4life]

We have had plenty of relievers post ERAs below 4.03 and xFIPs below 4.30 (Gregg's career averages).

As a closer with 30+ saves?

[RVAbird]

As a closer with 30+ saves?

You could have said "as a guy with a first-name-last-name and some goofy SportRec glasses" and it would have meant just as much to me.

Hitters don't magically become better in the 9th inning and the save is a statistic with artificially inflated value. If the Marlins had never said, "hey we can stick this kid who is coming off three 4+ ERA seasons in the closer's role," he'd just be another run of the mill reliever signing 1/1 deals.

[bsebllfan4life]

You could have said "as a guy with a first-name-last-name and some goofy SportRec glasses" and it would have meant just as much to me.

Hitters don't magically become better in the 9th inning and the save is a statistic with artificially inflated value. If the Marlins had never said, "hey we can stick this kid who is coming off three 4+ ERA seasons in the closer's role," he'd just be another run of the mill reliever signing 1/1 deals.

If the Yankees had never said....................Rivera says hello. You might think saves are an overblown stat and maybe your right, but closers have been more valuable to most teams then your run of the mill bullpen arms. If it was so simple and non-important why did the O's blow so many wins last year because they could not close out games?

[RVAbird]

If the Yankees had said.........Rivera says hello. You might think saves are an overblown stat and maybe your right, but closers have been more valuable to most teams then your run of the mill bullpen arms. If it was so simple and non-important why did the O's blow so many wins last year because they could not close out games?

Rivera has been an excellent pitcher in every regard as measured by every statistic I can think of. He's also a freak of nature who really has nothing of substance in common with Kevin Gregg, except that pitching in save situations has not made their performances lead to many more wins than otherwise.

Closers have demanded more in FA and brought more in trade, but that's largely due to the inflated value of saves.

It's not that difficult to figure out whether someone is a good pitcher. There are some guys who, for whatever reason, will crack under the artificial pressure of getting the last three outs. But those outs are not measurably more difficult to get or much more valuable than other outs. There are plenty of high leverage situations throughout normal games before the last three outs when your team is already winning.

Stick most 4.00 ERA pitchers in the closer's role and they would perform similarly to Gregg. He's really nothing special.

[bsebllfan4life]

Rivera has been an excellent pitcher in every regard as measured by every statistic I can think of. He's also a freak of nature who really has nothing of substance in common with Kevin Gregg, except that pitching in save situations has not made their performances lead to many more wins than otherwise.

Closers have demanded more in FA and brought more in trade, but that's largely due to the inflated value of saves.

It's not that difficult to figure out whether someone is a good pitcher. There are some guys who, for whatever reason, will crack under the artificial pressure of getting the last three outs. But those outs are not measurably more difficult to get or much more valuable than other outs. There are plenty of high leverage situations throughout normal games before the last three outs when your team is already winning.

Stick most 4.00 ERA pitchers in the closer's role and they would perform similarly to Gregg. He's really nothing special.

Regardless of weather it is an overblown stat, I as a fan of a team with 27 blown saves last year, will welcome in a real closer with open arms. I agree with your stance that a "save" can happen anywhere in a game, but the fact remains not everyone can get those last 3 outs and we are a team that was in need of some guys who can get them.

[sangar]

Still waiting to see the exact contract details. I don't like 2/10 for Gregg who I think is an average reliever. I would have much rather seen the O's sign Saito.

Which raises an interesting question.

At what age do relievers tend to fall off the cliff?

[CharmCityRocker]

I just think of this as an addendum to the Reynolds and Hardy deals.

Before it was DH, Mickolio, Jacobsen and Hoey for Reynolds and Hardy. Pre-FA/pre-arb relievers were a highly-sought assest for trading partners this year. I was highly in favor of these moves because the DH's, Mickolio's, etc. of the world are replacable with FA relievers like Gregg.

I am fine with what is essentially DH, Mickolio, Jacobsen, Hoey and $10m for Reynolds, Hardy and Gregg.

[Hallas]

I think that, especially on the road, the last 3 outs will have substantially more leverage than any other outs in the game. (for example: a 2 run home run in a 1-run game can result in huge leverage shifts.) The fact that good relievers is often cited as a reason for beating pythagorean expected wins is a really good sign to me that the correlation between runs prevented by a closer and expected wins is actually undervalued.

This isn't to say that I think Gregg is a good signing. I do think that relievers are worth more than their WAR will tell you. But, I want an actual good pitcher closing out games, I'm not sold that Gregg is that person.

Rivera has been an excellent pitcher in every regard as measured by every statistic I can think of. He's also a freak of nature who really has nothing of substance in common with Kevin Gregg, except that pitching in save situations has not made their performances lead to many more wins than otherwise.

Closers have demanded more in FA and brought more in trade, but that's largely due to the inflated value of saves.

It's not that difficult to figure out whether someone is a good pitcher. There are some guys who, for whatever reason, will crack under the artificial pressure of getting the last three outs. But those outs are not measurably more difficult to get or much more valuable than other outs. There are plenty of high leverage situations throughout normal games before the last three outs when your team is already winning.

Stick most 4.00 ERA pitchers in the closer's role and they would perform similarly to Gregg. He's really nothing special.