Chris Tillman 87-89 MPH

[Stotle]

Agree about the location comment. Aside from the lacking velocity, that was the one thing I was most discouraged about with Tillman - very few fastballs at the knees, all seemed mid thigh or higher (contrast that with Britton who lives at the knees). Commanding the upper portion of the zone at 88mph is a recipe to get rocked. I get that the big curve plays off a high fastball, but if all he gets is 88mph, I'd rather he go back to the old approach, get more velo and be high fastball/big curve/occasional change type pitcher.

This is not meant as an attack at all, but the bolded highlights certain prejudices that I've seen pop up in the fan base w/r/t these two pitchers. Britton actually had more pitches from the middle of the strikezone up than he did below the middle of the strikezone.

[now]

Two issues, IMO. Current results and future results. Velocity and stuff goes a long way to forecasting improvement and future results.

True; I would add that ability to make the most of one's arsenal (current results) should also help forecast future results.

This is not meant as an attack at all, but the bolded highlights certain prejudices that I've seen pop up in the fan base w/r/t these two pitchers. Britton actually had more pitches from the middle of the strikezone up than he did below the middle of the strikezone.

Interesting. This goes along with what I was saying about Arrieta vs. Tillman, and people's preconceived bias. Funny that more haven't responded to my comparison of those two showing similar results, with age in Tillman's favor.

[Say O!]

This is not meant as an attack at all, but the bolded highlights certain prejudices that I've seen pop up in the fan base w/r/t these two pitchers. Britton actually had more pitches from the middle of the strikezone up than he did below the middle of the strikezone.

Probably more of a function of Britton going with the 4-seamer. His 2 seam seemed at the knees or below. Scatter plot of Britton's pitch location shows many more pitches low or below the zone than Tillman. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the "misses" but that's where the biggest difference lies and its not stereotyping or bias against the two - Tillman's misses are almost always up, and Britton has much more prevalence below the knees.

[El Gordo]

Arrieta has better stuff than Tillman IMO. So although he has similar command issues he has a greater margin for error. Britton usually lives by his 2 seamer, and has more velocity and movement on his 4 seamer than Tillman. He doesn't give up as many HR.

[Stotle]

Probably more of a function of Britton going with the 4-seamer. His 2 seam seemed at the knees or below. Scatter plot of Britton's pitch location shows many more pitches low or below the zone than Tillman. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the "misses" but that's where the biggest difference lies and its not stereotyping or bias against the two - Tillman's misses are almost always up, and Britton has much more prevalence below the knees.

I agree Tillman has predominantly missed up in his ML career. I disagree anything definative can be taken away from Britton's one start.

[mweb]

Meanwhile Phil Hughes is having similar velocity and stuff issues. So that's something to take solace in.

[ccbird]

True; I would add that ability to make the most of one's arsenal (current results) should also help forecast future results.

Interesting. This goes along with what I was saying about Arrieta vs. Tillman, and people's preconceived bias. Funny that more haven't responded to my comparison of those two showing similar results, with age in Tillman's favor.

They are rather similar. Like I said, I'm not sold on Arrieta being more than a back of the rotation guy. I just give the edge to Jake because of his stuff and his ability to work deeper in games. The two year age difference really doesn't matter to me at this point since Tillman has more experience at the ML level.

[RVAbird]

What do you expect to see eventually? Do you think he's eventually going to be sitting at 92-93 mph?

I've seen Tillman sit 90-92 and hit 94 with some regularity in the minors. I think that, as he fills out a little more and gets stronger, he could certainly end up living 92.

[oh-wee-ohs]

Meanwhile Phil Hughes is having similar velocity and stuff issues. So that's something to take solace in.

I bet it's because they let him pitch something like 80 innings more than he's ever pitched last year.

[Emory Eagle]

Have there been any public comments by Tillman or the pitching coach on why he is so consistently up in the strike zone? I ask only because it seems reasonable to infer from what we've seen that Tillman is consciously attempting to pitch in that area.

You would think that if Tillman's control were truly terrible, we'd see some low misses too. Of course, that assumes that control problems would distribute misses evenly; it's possible that due to particular mechanical issues, Tillman is far more likely to miss upwards in the strikezone than otherwise.

It seems odd to decrease velocity in order to improve accuracy/movement, and yet stick with a pitching strategy that relies so heavily on high strikes.

[Frobby]

I'm sorry but [87-89 mph] is not going to get it done. Especially when there is no movement. And our radar gun is FRIENDLY....I'm not impressed with his stuff at all I don't care how good the curveball is.

Yeah, but you need to chalk it up to Tillman having subpar stuff that outing. The previous outing his fastball averaged 90, he hit 91-93 numerous times and he didn't allow a hit in 6 IP. I don't know why Tillman had no velocity last time out, but I'll worry about it when it becomes a pattern.