Would you pay this for Darvish?

[El Gordo]

That's like saying that because one free agent pitcher is a bust that the next one will get less money because of it. Part of Daisuke's problems are health related. On talent, and because multiple teams will be bidding, I think you'll see same to the same posting fee, if not more.

There are serious questions about how to estimate the drop off in performance between the NPB and the MLB. Using Dice-K s actual numbers is an indication, fair or not, when estimating the likely posting fee/salary offer. Certainly they will be brought up in negotiations. Darvish is better and younger so he would get more than Dice-K, except, that given Dice-K's performance, clubs may be reluctant to offer relatively as much. That's why if I were estimating a winning posting bid for Darvish, I would guess around 50M and go a little higher

[bej6789]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not really interested in Darvish at all. The track record for pitchers making the jump just doesn't sit well with me. Dice-K was the next big thing, and now 5 years later I don't think any one of us would touch him with a 10 foot pole given that contract. The Orioles are too far away from contention to be investing this type of money into a player that, quite frankly, nobody knows how he'll pan out. I'm all for taking chances, I'd just rather see the Orioles spend balls out on the draft and dump that money into over slot picks. Both are high risk scenarios, I'd just prefer to take *my* money elsewhere.

[MikeAD]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not really interested in Darvish at all. The track record for pitchers making the jump just doesn't sit well with me. Dice-K was the next big thing, and now 5 years later I don't think any one of us would touch him with a 10 foot pole given that contract. The Orioles are too far away from contention to be investing this type of money into a player that, quite frankly, nobody knows how he'll pan out. I'm all for taking chances, I'd just rather see the Orioles spend balls out on the draft and dump that money into over slot picks. Both are high risk scenarios, I'd just prefer to take *my* money elsewhere.

My thoughts exactly.

[El Gordo]

My thoughts exactly.

The problem with this kind of thinking is that not all Japanese pitchers are the same. Some are younger, like Darvish, and some are much better than any of the others, like Darvish. He will have to adjust to the 5 day rotation and lower pitch counts, which means his MLB numbers won't be as good as his NPB numbers, but he is not likely to be a bust. Worst case scenario IMO, is you get the same level of performance over 5 years as you would from Wilson, at roughly the same cost.

[MikeAD]

The problem with this kind of thinking is that not all Japanese pitchers are the same. Some are younger, like Darvish, and some are much better than any of the others, like Darvish. He will have to adjust to the 5 day rotation and lower pitch counts, which means his MLB numbers won't be as good as his NPB numbers, but he is not likely to be a bust. Worst case scenario IMO, is you get the same level of performance over 5 years as you would from Wilson, at roughly the same cost.

First it is always an uncertainty. There are hordes of great college and minor league pitchers that can't adjust to major league hitters and they don't have to worry about switching game styles, continents and the frequency with which they pitch.

Second, some people expect Wilson's contract could be as low as 75 million, but even a 100 million over 5 years its still less than Darvish, and you know what you are getting.

[El Gordo]

First it is always an uncertainty. There are hordes of great college and minor league pitchers that can't adjust to major league hitters and they don't have to worry about switching game styles, continents and the frequency with which they pitch.

Second, some people expect Wilson's contract could be as low as 75 million, but even a 100 million over 5 years its still less than Darvish, and you know what you are getting.

I wouldn't sign Darvish to more than what Wilson would get. I'd be surprised if Wilson didn't get at least AJ/Lackey money. More, if the O's want him. Darvish should post at around 50-60 M IMO, maybe less, and can be signed for 40-50M. But my point is, it's silly to make blanket generalizations about all Japanese pitchers. Why compare Darvish to Koji e.g.. or Irabu? They are not the same pitchers and came to the MLB at different levels of ability, and at different points in their career.

[MikeAD]

I wouldn't sign Darvish to more than what Wilson would get. I'd be surprised if Wilson didn't get at least AJ/Lacket money. More, if the O's want him. Darvish should post at around 50-60 M IMO, maybe less, and can be signed for 40-50M. But my point is, it's silly to make blanket generalizations about all Japanese pitchers. Why compare Darvish to Koji e.g.. or Irabu? They are not the same pitchers and came to the MLB at different levels of ability, and at different points in their career.

Hes essentially the same age as Daisuke Matsuzaka was.

[El Gordo]

Darvish will be 25 next April, Dice-K was 26 in April 2007. Now compare his age 25 numbers with Dice-K's age 26 numbers. They are not essentially the same pitcher.

[Flosman]

How does the player not remain in the winning teams control for the same length of time any player that is entering the Majors?

[DrungoHazewood]

How does the player not remain in the winning teams control for the same length of time any player that is entering the Majors?

They're treated as the established veteran players they are, as opposed to inexperienced kids. It has to be part of the posting process agreement between NPB and MLB.

It just makes sense. If these guys were anything but Japanese players they'd have been drafted years and years ago and would have already worked their way through MLB's period of below-market salaries and team control. They're given credit for doing that in Japan.

[Sports Guy]

Britt just told me on Twitter that she doesn't think the Orioles will go after Darvish.

[clapdiddy]

Britt just told me on Twitter that she doesn't think the Orioles will go after Darvish.

I kind of figured this. I'm wondering who they are going to go after. I'm guessing we'll be looking at throwing money at a couple of back-end starters.

[JTrea81]

I kind of figured this. I'm wondering who they are going to go after. I'm guessing we'll be looking at throwing money at a couple of back-end starters.

CJ Wilson is who Buck wants IMO.

[clapdiddy]

CJ Wilson is who Buck wants IMO.

Well...I hope Buck doesn't get EVERYTHING he wants. I like Wilson, but he's not going to be worth anything near what he's going to get this offseason.

[VeveJones007]

CJ Wilson is who Buck wants IMO.

They wanted Victor Martinez last offseason, so this situation will probably end up the same.