Predicting top 8 seeds in tourney

[Sports Guy]

Right now, Kentucky and Syracuse are guaranteed #1 seeds.

You will likely see Kansas, UNC and Duke fight for the other 2 #1 seeds.

Whoever doesn't get the #1 out of that group will likely be joined by Mich St, Ohio St and one of Mizzou, Marquette and GTown getting the other #2.

[waroriole]

I think Mizzou is in the running for a #1. I wouldn't count out MSU and OSU also.

If I were going to predict, I would say:

1's: Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC, Kansas

2's: Mizzou, Michigan St, Marquette, Duke

[Sports Guy]

I think Mizzou is in the running for a #1. I wouldn't count out MSU and OSU also.

If I were going to predict, I would say:

1's: Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC, Kansas

2's: Mizzou, Michigan St, Marquette, Duke

I think OSU locked up their #2 seed today. The Big East is weaker this year than year's past, so OSUs hould be ahead of Marqueete unless OSU goes out in their first game of big 10 tourney and Marquette wins the BE tourney.

[Frobby]

I think Duke has to make it to the finals of the ACC tournament to get a 1 (if they win it) or 2 seed (more likely). UNC could lose early and still get a 2. If they win the ACC tourney, they're a sure 1.

[Sports Guy]

I think Duke has to make it to the finals of the ACC tournament to get a 1 (if they win it) or 2 seed (more likely). UNC could lose early and still get a 2. If they win the ACC tourney, they're a sure 1.

Duke and UNC are guaranteed a top 2 seed.

Likely, whoever wins the ACC tourney gets the #1. If neither win it, whoever goes further could be the difference.

One thing to remember is that they both have head to head wins over Mich St and Duke beat Kansas but lost to OSU.

Going into last night, Duke had the higher RPI by 4 spots.

[hoosiers]

It will be interesting to see which rating system gets the favor of the tournament committee.

KenPom and Sagarin seem to be more respected than the rpi, IMO.

Despite the impressive win over Duke, OSU is on a 3-3 run after road losses in Mich State and Mich so they may not be a lock for a 2 if they exit the conference tournament early.

Michigan earned a share of the B1G regular season conference title and Indiana is at or inside the top 10 of both Sagarin and KenPom - so both schools could be in line for very strong seeds.

IMO, the B1G will get at least two 2s and one 3 - possibly a second three depending on how the conference tournament goes. Indiana and Wisconsin could battle in the second round of the BTT and one of those schools could be in-line for the second three for the B1G.

FWIW, I think it says more about the conferences than the top teams in those conferences when Syracuse and Kentucky go undefeated in conference.

[Sports Guy]

It will be interesting to see which rating system gets the favor of the tournament committee.

KenPom and Sagarin seem to be more respected than the rpi, IMO.

Despite the impressive win over Duke, OSU is on a 3-3 run after road losses in Mich State and Mich so they may not be a lock for a 2 if they exit the conference tournament early.

Michigan earned a share of the B1G regular season conference title and Indiana is at or inside the top 10 of both Sagarin and KenPom - so both schools could be in line for very strong seeds.

IMO, the B1G will get at least two 2s and one 3 - possibly a second three depending on how the conference tournament goes. Indiana and Wisconsin could battle in the second round of the BTT and one of those schools could be in-line for the second three for the B1G.

FWIW, I think it says more about the conferences than the top teams in those conferences when Syracuse and Kentucky go undefeated in conference.

Kenpom is better than all of them...but I doubt they use it in the selection room.

The kenpom rankings are based more on where he feels the quality of the team is based on offensive and defensive efficiency. That really has nothing to do with seeding.

I agree with your last line...The SEC is brutal and the Big East isn't good this year.

[Pedro Cerrano]

#1s: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, UNC

# 2s: dook, Missouri, Ohio State, Michigan State

[Sports Guy]

#1s: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, UNC

# 2s: dook, Missouri, Ohio State, Michigan State

I think this is most likely...Marquette or GTown would have to beat Cuse and win BE tourney to get 2 seed.

[Pedro Cerrano]

OT, but how awful is the Pac-12? It's amazing how far that conference has fallen. Teams with great traditions like Arizona and Stanford are bad (although Arizona has a great class coming in). UCLA might be the most historically relevant team in NCAA hoops history and SI is publishing articles about how Howland has lost the team. Other teams that have had success here and there like Washington and Utah are nothing special.

Amazing how bad that conference has been this year and last year.

[Sports Guy]

OT, but how awful is the Pac-12? It's amazing how far that conference has fallen. Teams with great traditions like Arizona and Stanford are bad (although Arizona has a great class coming in). UCLA might be the most historically relevant team in NCAA hoops history and SI is publishing articles about how Howland has lost the team. Other teams that have had success here and there like Washington and Utah are nothing special.

Amazing how bad that conference has been this year and last year.

Zona will be fine...they lost a lot off of last year's team.

But yea, the conference is really terrible.

[Frobby]

It will be interesting to see which rating system gets the favor of the tournament committee.

KenPom and Sagarin seem to be more respected than the rpi, IMO.

There were a couple of pieces in the Post this weekend about the RPI and its alternatives:

The sentiment of some rating gurus is that the RPI should be used as nothing more than a rough tool. Joel Sokol, an engineering professor at Georgia Tech whose ratings system (LRMC) is used by the selection committee, said the RPI is “not even close to the best indicator of a team’s strength.”

But the man who has done the most to kill the RPI is — of all people — a 38-year-old Utah-based meteorologist at the National Weather Service. While growing up in Alexandria, Ken Pomeroy would ask his mother to buy the Tuesday edition of USA Today so he could study the weekly ratings of Jeff Sagarin. Pomeroy yearned for the formula.

Two decades later, Pomeroy became the most prominent proponent of tempo-free statistics, where a team’s strengths are measured possession by possession, rather than using traditional measurements such as points scored per game. Close to 100 Division I schools subscribe to his Web site (KenPom.com). He has appeared on Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s radio show.

One basketball insider likened Pomeroy to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul because of the unabated passion displayed by supporters, a comparison Pomeroy understands. Pomeroy’s fans are so invested that even when Pomeroy acknowledges an outlier in his ratings, he will receive e-mails screaming: “No! You have to trust the numbers!”

Pomeroy used to simulate RPI on his Web site until he got a call from a current Southeastern Conference coach lambasting him for his team’s position in what the coach said was Pomeroy’s RPI. Now, Pomeroy said he looks at the RPI exactly zero times during the season. And he has a word for anyone who relies solely on it to make judgments about teams: lazy.

“I don’t like the RPI,” Pomeroy said. “It has no analytical value whatsoever.”

"‘It’s hard to kill’"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/ncaa-tournament-2012-is-it-time-to-say-rip-to-the-rpi/2012/03/03/gIQA9M5YrR_story.html

Related: Four alternatives to the RPI

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/ncaa-tournament-2012-alternatives-to-using-the-rpi-to-find-the-best-teams/2012/03/02/gIQAyO5YrR_story.html

[hoosiers]

Thanks, Frobby. The quotes seem to follow a consensus among the very educated Indiana fans on rivals who pay a lot more attention to "KenPom".

I did not word my post properly originally. I meant to say I was interested to see how the committee's decisions on seeds played out relative to KenPom v RPI v AP polls and other. At the end of the day, a team in the tourney needs to win its games, but I'd much rather be a 3 than a 4 seed and IU seems to be on that bubble right now in the national polls, but higher on KenPom. Interestingly for the folks in this conversation, if IU ends up a 3 and there are two other Big Ten schools as 2s, there would be a 50/50 chance of an IU/Duke matchup to get to the Elite 8. Similarly, the committee might want to make IU a 4 for a possible Zeller v Zeller matchup in that round - assuming IU can get there.

Before the season, I was hoping for a Top 50 team, but IU has a pretty good resume with wins against 3 top 5 teams (all at home) and 11-5 against the top 50 and is playing at a pretty good level right now. Hopefully, there are decent runs ahead of this team in both the BTT and the NCAAs. It's been a great year returning to relevance for IU and a top class will add substantial depth, height and quickness to next year's squad.

[Frobby]

IU would be a very scary team to play. They've proven they can beat anyone on a given day.

[waroriole]

IU would be a very scary team to play. They've proven they can beat anyone on a given day.

Yeah, they're definitely a dark horse team that could win it all.