If we give up a draft pick for Kendrys Morales I will hammer a railroad spike through my head

[CA-ORIOLE]

The real problem is, I don't even own a railroad spike.

Don't you have a fancy sword?

[BillySmith]

I'm confused. Are we killing ourselves if we sign Morales or just deadening our brains? I'm cool with either, but we need some direction here. The wolfpack is ready for any sacrifice!

[Stotle]

How so? For the sake of argument, if the O's identify a FA who fills a need at a reasonable financial cost, and who also costs a draft pick, wouldn't adding such a player make sense if he furthers the cause of reaching the postseason during what many seem to consider a closing window?

The O's haven't exactly been major players in FA over the last...lots of years...so I don't see how making a calculated departure from that history for a particular player indicates that the O's organizational philosophy lacks coherence.

Can an organization with a coherent plan not invest in both the FA market and the draft?

Signing doesn't really represent much opportunity for surplus value outside of, what, the top 2% of total possible production outcomes? Baltimore already relinquished its supplemental pick in the Norris trade. That leaves the 55th overall pick as Baltimore's top selection in the draft. If they sign a quality arm to go with Morales, it has to be Garza in order to avoid losing the 55th overall pick (Santana and Jiminez cost a pick, and they are not in on Tanaka -- and I'm good with not going after any of those three).

This draft class, at this point, is skewed towards some high risk/high upside talents in the top tier, and is additionally deep in college arms. The net result is an increased likelihood that there is impact that slips to the late to supplemental first round. Not a guarantee, but it adds some value to those picks.

I don't consider Morales alone a real active investment in the MLB roster. If it is, it's hard for me to look at the move and think it makes much sense for THIS to be the proactive approach -- that is, that the front office circled Morales as the guy they really wanted entering the offseason. Finally, I don't see how signing Morales, trading away a supp pick, and generally avoiding any aggressive J2 spending is an example of a plan for investing significantly in amateur talent acquisition.

[MrOrange82]

Signing doesn't really represent much opportunity for surplus value outside of, what, the top 2% of total possible production outcomes? Baltimore already relinquished its supplemental pick in the Norris trade. That leaves the 55th overall pick as Baltimore's top selection in the draft. If they sign a quality arm to go with Morales, it has to be Garza in order to avoid losing the 55th overall pick (Santana and Jiminez cost a pick, and they are not in on Tanaka -- and I'm good with not going after any of those three).

This draft class, at this point, is skewed towards some high risk/high upside talents in the top tier, and is additionally deep in college arms. The net result is an increased likelihood that there is impact that slips to the late to supplemental first round. Not a guarantee, but it adds some value to those picks.

I don't consider Morales alone a real active investment in the MLB roster. If it is, it's hard for me to look at the move and think it makes much sense for THIS to be the proactive approach -- that is, that the front office circled Morales as the guy they really wanted entering the offseason. Finally, I don't see how signing Morales, trading away a supp pick, and generally avoiding any aggressive J2 spending is an example of a plan for investing significantly in amateur talent acquisition.

That last point is what sticks with me. I agree that it doesn't seem like Morales is a guy they've targeted out of the gate. Your description of the draft class, though, does not give me pause. High risk is, by definition, pretty far from a guarantee. Given the state of the current team, it'd make sense to me to spend on Morales, Garza, and one other guy to compete with the current core, and then blow up the core via trades for prospects if things don't pan out.

Say through some quirk of the universe the team decided to raise payroll to $120 million and grab Morales, Garza, and Jimenez, thereby gutting the top of their draft opportunities. If the team with those players wins, great. If it doesn't, and Davis, Jones, Wieters, etc., all become fair fodder for trades, what are the odds that the team couldn't recoup its lost draft value through those trades?

Obviously this is all a bit off the reservation, and your explanation makes clear why you think a Morales signing would evidence a lack of an organizational plan, but I think my point is that we'd have to see what else they do after a Morales signing before declaring them directionless. If they just got Morales, and did nothing else, I couldn't help but agree that'd be pretty pointless, and disheartening.

[weams]

[Il BuonO]

That last point is what sticks with me. I agree that it doesn't seem like Morales is a guy they've targeted out of the gate. Your description of the draft class, though, does not give me pause. High risk is, by definition, pretty far from a guarantee. Given the state of the current team, it'd make sense to me to spend on Morales, Garza, and one other guy to compete with the current core, and then blow up the core via trades for prospects if things don't pan out.

Say through some quirk of the universe the team decided to raise payroll to $120 million and grab Morales, Garza, and Jimenez, thereby gutting the top of their draft opportunities. If the team with those players wins, great. If it doesn't, and Davis, Jones, Wieters, etc., all become fair fodder for trades, what are the odds that the team couldn't recoup its lost draft value through those trades?

Ok, where's the real Mr Orange? You're far too hopeful. That is very quirky indeed. Team payroll to $120 mil. Pfft.

[mcgraw238]

How do you get that he is a mediocre player? He has 9.5 total WAR in his last 3 full seasons.. As someone else has mentioned he was the second best DH last year. And we aren't getting Ortiz.

Are you really throwing pre-ankle injury 2009 stats, which accounts for half the WAR your trumpeting, into the mix to make your case? Talk about playing with the numbers. Like Stotle is saying, its not this particular player that bugs me it more the overall incoherent approach to building its overall roster, mlb level and minors.

[MrOrange82]

Ok, where's the real Mr Orange? You're far too hopeful. That is very quirky indeed. Team payroll to $120 mil. Pfft.

Everybody's so doom and gloom...they're taking my schtick, dangit.

In all seriousness, I don't expect the O's to do much of anything, including sign Morales. I think a trade might happen, but nothing earth shattering. I wouldn't be shocked by a Burnett signing, but that's a one year bandaid using a player with a spotty AL East track record. And I really do think all the draft talk is elementary because the O's have a shoddy player development system.

But if everyone else is saying that...man, I just want to say something other than "ditto."

[Il BuonO]

Everybody's so doom and gloom...they're taking my schtick, dangit.

In all seriousness, I don't expect the O's to do much of anything, including sign Morales. I think a trade might happen, but nothing earth shattering. I wouldn't be shocked by a Burnett signing, but that's a one year bandaid using a player with a spotty AL East track record. And I really do think all the draft talk is elementary because the O's have a shoddy player development system.

But if everyone else is saying that...man, I just want to say something other than "ditto."

Ah, the contrarian. That's more like it.

[SrMeowMeow]

Kendrys Morales OPS in 2013 was .780 against RHP, .794 against LHP.

Xavier Paul's OPS in 2013 was .775 against RHP.

Steve Pearce's OPS in 2013 was .802 against LHP.

Factoring in park effects, I'll concede that Kendrys Morales would likely outproduce a platoon of Xavier Paul and Steve Pearce in 2014. But will the difference be so great to justify losing a first round pick?

One thing I know for sure--this team needs to upgrade its pitching more than it needs to upgrade its lineup. Once this team signs Bronson Arroyo and a decent closer, then I can ponder whether it's worth sacrificing a bit of the future to sign Morales. The worst outcome would be signing Morales and having to go with "internal options" for the bullpen and rotation due to lack of funds.

This is another good post. Morales is projected for like 1.5 WAR by Fangraphs because he's just a DH, and it's not hard to find replacement level players who can put up a 750ish OPS. Platoon two of those guys and suddenly you're getting 95% of Kendrys Morales for twice league minimum.

[SrMeowMeow]

Don't you have a fancy sword?

I am flattered that you think I give off the "owns fancy swords" vibe, but, no. I do own a toothbrush...?

[Singleton]

If the success of the O's draft/development turns on whether the team sacrifices a single, mid/late first round pick, then yes...I have zero confidence in the O's to build from within.

But one pick in that slot should not spell disaster for the draft plans of a competent organization.

We've already given up our supplemental 1st round pick for the mighty Bud Norris. We aren't building a farm system without high draft picks and we aren't going far for very long without a good system. Morales isn't all that good. Morales and AJ Burnett are not likely enough to get us a division.

It's just the wrong move for a team in our position.

[weams]

We've already given up our supplemental 1st round pick for the mighty Bud Norris. We aren't building a farm system without high draft picks and we aren't going far for very long without a good system. Morales isn't all that good. Morales and AJ Burnett are not likely enough to get us a division.

It's just the wrong move for a team in our position.

Bud Norris is under control for at least two seasons. He is an actual pitcher.

[Os84]

This is another good post. Morales is projected for like 1.5 WAR by Fangraphs because he's just a DH, and it's not hard to find replacement level players who can put up a 750ish OPS. Platoon two of those guys and suddenly you're getting 95% of Kendrys Morales for twice league minimum.

This is true, but you are also adding two roster spots and limiting positional flexibility. Reimold and Lough are already on the team. Then you have Pearce and Paul? That's 6 OF on the roster.

[mcgraw238]

Bud Norris is under control for at least two seasons. He is an actual pitcher.

Bud Norris will be a non-tender candidate or get JJ treatment if he does not improve upon his performance in an O's uniform.