2014 Chris Tillman Today

[OFFNY]

o

CALIFORNIA ANGELS O (JULY 29th)

Kole Calhoun - RF

Mike Trout - CF

Albert Pujols - 1B

Josh Hamilton - DH

Erick Aybar - SS

Howie Kendrick - 2B

Efren Navarro - LF

David Freese - 3B

Hank Conger - C

Jered Weaver -RHP (11-6, 3.36 ERA)

http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups

[OFFNY]

o

CALIFORNIA ANGELS O (JULY 29th)

Kole Calhoun - RF

Mike Trout - CF

Albert Pujols - 1B

Josh Hamilton - DH

Erick Aybar - SS

Howie Kendrick - 2B

Efren Navarro - LF

David Freese - 3B

Hank Conger - C

Jered Weaver -RHP (11-6, 3.36 ERA)

http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups

3 earned runs (5 overall) in 5 innings.

The offense was outstanding in driving Tillman's pitching adversary (Jered Weaver) out of the game after only 5 innings themselves.

[Guest]

Awful start.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Horrible performance.

[backwardsk]

I like Tillman taking the ball every five days. I'd extend him before he gets too expensive in his arbitration years.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I like Tillman taking the ball every five days. I'd extend him before he gets too expensive in his arbitration years.

This is definitely the season to do it, I would think. You show him where a lot of his numbers rank and what that gets him in arbitration. You buy out those years and add three. Keep him here through 2020 (FA in 2021), which would be his age 32 season. He would have the opportunity to get one more contract, so I could see him and his agent being on board with that.

First names I came across that made sense as a comparable contract for a first year arb case were Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hellickson. Both made 3.63M in their first years of arbitration in 2014. Giving a 5% addition to that because of it being one year later gets us to 3.81M. Next, let's double that every year. I've seen between 117% and 120% as the average arbitration raise, but I imagine that is very positively skewed, so I'm going to stick with doubling every year of arb. (http://www.komonews.com/sports/Arbitration-eligible-baseball-players-get-average-119-raise-191903541.html):

2015 - 3.81M

2016 - 7.62M

2017 - 15.24M

Now, we provide an annual salary rate to be received in FA. I think we can get a bit of a discount for signing him early, especially as a pitcher. I think $16M a year would be sufficient considering a three year deal beyond the arb years that guarantees six years of salary, rather than going three years of arb year-to-year.

Adding 48M to the above numbers gets us 74.67M/6 years (12.445 AAV). Do you think Tillman agrees to that deal? May have to bump it up a few dollars to get the AAV above Ubaldo in order to get it done.

Maybe you structure it something along the lines of:

2015 - $6M

2016 - $10M

2017 - $14M

2018 - $15M

2019 - $15M

2020 - $15M

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'd trade Tillman before I gave him 15 million a year.

[Guest]

Good Luck tomorrow better be on your game. Sunday day game cant score runs. You better be perfect.

[Frobby]

This is definitely the season to do it, I would think. You show him where a lot of his numbers rank and what that gets him in arbitration. You buy out those years and add three. Keep him here through 2020 (FA in 2021), which would be his age 32 season. He would have the opportunity to get one more contract, so I could see him and his agent being on board with that.

First names I came across that made sense as a comparable contract for a first year arb case were Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hellickson. Both made 3.63M in their first years of arbitration in 2014. Giving a 5% addition to that because of it being one year later gets us to 3.81M. Next, let's double that every year. I've seen between 117% and 120% as the average arbitration raise, but I imagine that is very positively skewed, so I'm going to stick with doubling every year of arb. (http://www.komonews.com/sports/Arbitration-eligible-baseball-players-get-average-119-raise-191903541.html):

2015 - 3.81M

2016 - 7.62M

2017 - 15.24M

Now, we provide an annual salary rate to be received in FA. I think we can get a bit of a discount for signing him early, especially as a pitcher. I think $16M a year would be sufficient considering a three year deal beyond the arb years that guarantees six years of salary, rather than going three years of arb year-to-year.

Adding 48M to the above numbers gets us 74.67M/6 years (12.445 AAV). Do you think Tillman agrees to that deal? May have to bump it up a few dollars to get the AAV above Ubaldo in order to get it done.

Maybe you structure it something along the lines of:

2015 - $6M

2016 - $10M

2017 - $14M

2018 - $15M

2019 - $15M

2020 - $15M

That would be a huge overpay. Show me a pitcher who made $10 mm in his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility and I'll show you a pitcher who had a better track record than Tillman.

[BohKnowsBmore]

That would be a huge overpay. Show me a pitcher who made $10 mm in his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility and I'll show you a pitcher who had a better track record than Tillman.

That wasn't an estimate of what he's make in arbitration. That estimate was above. It was a total contract value with the amounts smoothed over the entire contract.

[OFFNY]

o

SEATTLE MARINERS O (AUGUST 3rd)

Austin Jackson - CF

Dustin Ackley - LF

Robinson Cano - 2B

Kendrys Morales - DH

Kyle Seager - 3B

Chris Denorfia - RF

Logan Morrison - 1B

Mike Zunino - C

Brad Miller - SS

Hisashi Iwakuma - RHP (9-5, 3.06 ERA)

http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups

[Can_of_corn]

I'd trade Tillman before I gave him 15 million a year.

Who do you replace him with? Steve Johnson?

Any FO willing to give Ubaldo 4/50 (and a pick!) should be tickled to get Tillman at 1/15.

[OFFNY]

Good Luck tomorrow better be on your game. Sunday day game cant score runs. You better be perfect.

Tell you what.

When you start posting perfectly, I'll start pitching perfectly.

Sincerely,

Christopher Steven Tillman

[Can_of_corn]

Tillman can't be a FA until after the 2017 season. That's 3 more full seasons. I see no reason to give him a long term contract. With the fragility of pitching, we basically have him on a one year contract with 3 club options. I'll take that and the arbitration numbers over a long term contract.

I was speaking in a vacuum. I also have no desire to give Tillman a long term deal at this point. Saying 1/15 is palatable does not mean that I think 3/45 is.

[OFFNY]

o

SEATTLE MARINERS O (AUGUST 3rd)

Austin Jackson - CF

Dustin Ackley - LF

Robinson Cano - 2B

Kendrys Morales - DH

Kyle Seager - 3B

Chris Denorfia - RF

Logan Morrison - 1B

Mike Zunino - C

Brad Miller - SS

Hisashi Iwakuma - RHP (9-5, 3.06 ERA)

http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups

o

7 shutout innings.

4 hits (all singles.)

0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Tillman has recorded 17 outs over the last 17 batters that he has faced. The one base-runner that the Mariners had in that span was erased via a double play (hence, the 17-for-17.)