Hardball Times: Projecting MLB pitchers with Milb Stats

[weams]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-major-league-pitching-with-minor-league-stats/

TOP KATOH PROJECTIONS

NameAge Org 14 Level MLB > 4 > 6 > 8 > 10 > 12 > 16 Thru Age 28 WAR

Julio Urias 17 LAD A+ 91% 49% 49% 49% 45% 45% 43% 12.2

Noah Syndergaard 21 NYM AAA 99% 69% 63% 61% 50% 50% 23% 11.5

Luis Severino 20 NYY A/A+/AA 79% 39% 36% 30% 24% 22% 18% 7.2

Jose Berrios 20 MIN A+/AA/AAA 84% 35% 33% 31% 24% 23% 16% 7.0

Tyler Glasnow 20 PIT A+ 85% 32% 29% 28% 22% 20% 19% 6.9

Taijuan Walker 21 SEA A+/AA/AAA 94% 42% 36% 36% 18% 13% 12% 6.7

Clayton Blackburn 21 SF R-/AA 90% 44% 38% 27% 21% 13% 12% 6.5

Henry Owens 21 BOS AA/AAA 93% 39% 33% 24% 17% 14% 11% 6.2

Archie Bradley 21 ARI R-/AA/AAA 79% 26% 25% 24% 24% 23% 11% 5.7

Marcos Molina 19 NYM A- 63% 24% 21% 21% 21% 21% 13% 5.3

Rafael Montero 23 NYM R-/A+/AAA 91% 36% 29% 22% 20% 17% 4% 5.3

Matt Wisler 21 SD AA/AAA 92% 36% 29% 25% 13% 8% 7% 5.2

Kyle Hendricks 24 CHC AAA 94% 42% 32% 21% 17% 13% 1% 5.1

Lucas Giolito 19 WAS A 76% 33% 27% 24% 18% 12% 7% 5.0

Hunter Harvey 19 BAL A 77% 33% 28% 22% 18% 12% 7% 5.0

Daniel Norris 21 TOR A+/AA/AAA 86% 26% 23% 18% 14% 12% 9% 5.0

Mark Binford 21 KC A+/AA/AAA 76% 27% 25% 23% 16% 13% 8% 4.9

Victor Sanchez 19 SEA AA 84% 24% 24% 22% 14% 9% 8% 4.8

Jake Thompson 20 TEX AA 78% 23% 20% 17% 13% 11% 8% 4.5

Zach Davies 21 BAL AA 88% 28% 24% 16% 11% 6% 5% 4.4

[25 Nuggets]

Those WAR projections are through age 28? Looks rather underwhelming. Taijuan Walker only 1 WAR per season?

[weams]

Those WAR projections are through age 28? Looks rather underwhelming. Taijuan Walker only 1 WAR per season?

They must have reason to think that. We do not know if this method of translation actually works though. Do we?

[skanar]

They must have reason to think that. We do not know if this method of translation actually works though. Do we?

This method is fundamentally similar to the one I posted about a year ago. I think the author has done some excellent work, though I think his predictions are somewhat overprecise (promising a precision they are unlikely to deliver- note that precision and accuracy are not the same thing).

I haven't done enough detailed reading of his work to criticize/comment on specifics, but on first glace it looked excellent.

[weams]

This method is fundamentally similar to the one I posted about a year ago. I think the author has done some excellent work, though I think his predictions are somewhat overprecise (promising a precision they are unlikely to deliver- note that precision and accuracy are not the same thing).

I haven't done enough detailed reading of his work to criticize/comment on specifics, but on first glace it looked excellent.

It reminded me of your work.

[skanar]

It reminded me of your work.

Actually I was real disappointed when I saw it because I think I might've been scooped. With the new job, haven't finished putting together all that stuff into a coherent paper for BRJ, which had expressed some preliminary interest in publishing.