A Nightmare Future

[Crazysilver03]

Why would you think that we would not get a competitive balance pick? Only three teams lose out completely. Right?

We qualify.

Yes we qualify. But winning percentage goes into calculating if you end up with a pick. Division winners have not fared well in the draft lottery.

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[weams]

All I am saying is don't talk about 13 picks like it is guaranteed.

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Right. It might be 10,11, 12, or 13. Or even 14. Or maybe we will trade for a competitive balance pick!

[weams]

Yes we qualify. But winning percentage goes into calculating if you end up with a pick. Division winners have not fared well in the draft lottery.

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The point that is being made is that those picks are very important to restocking the Orioles farm system that has graduated most of it's top end over the last three years.

[Crazysilver03]

The point that is being made is that those picks are very important to restocking the Orioles farm system that has graduated most of it's top end over the last three years.

I agree and am fine with that. Let's just talk with a little more accuracy.

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[weams]

I agree and am fine with that. Let's just talk with a little more accuracy.

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I like Buck's number. It's accurate to me. As accurate as any of the other numbers I see thrown out there. To me, it sounds like an organizational plan. And the soon to be FA's are not enjoying that.

[weams]

The point that is being made is that those picks are very important to restocking the Orioles farm system that has graduated most of it's top end over the last three years.

I agree and am fine with that. Let's just talk with a little more accuracy.

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Furthermore, It was my hypothesis on how a team that was allowing so many of it's "stars" to leave and had such a poor minor league might improve quickly.

[Crazysilver03]

I like Buck's number. It's accurate to me. As accurate as any of the other numbers I see thrown out there. To me, it sounds like an organizational plan. And the soon to be FA's are not enjoying that.

Buck said they have 13 picks over the next two years?

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[weams]

Buck said they have 13 picks over the next two years?

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Yes. Buck said that they would have 8 more in the top 100 next year along with the five from this year that making those picks count was extremely important to the franchise. That it could not be messed up.

[MurphDogg]

Why would you think that we would not get a competitive balance pick? Only three teams lose out completely. Right?

We qualify.

We have the lowest odds due to having the best regular season record last season. 10 of 12 or 13 teams will get picks, and the Orioles are more likely than every other team not to get one of those picks.

[weams]

We have the lowest odds due to having the best regular season record last season. 10 of 12 or 13 teams will get picks, and the Orioles are more likely than every other team not to get one of those picks.

Thank you for this info. I appreciate it more than you know. So we were just pure lucky the last two times?

[weams]

We have the lowest odds due to having the best regular season record last season. 10 of 12 or 13 teams will get picks, and the Orioles are more likely than every other team not to get one of those picks.

What is the difference in probability between the Orioles and the number 10 placed team?

[Crazysilver03]

What is the difference in probability between the Orioles and the number 10 placed team?

That information is not released. The formula is secret.

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[Crazysilver03]

Thank you for this info. I appreciate it more than you know. So we were just pure lucky the last two times?

This isn't the first time this information has been presented to you. I brought this up previously in a different thread talking about probabilities of getting picks.

First year we kind of lucked out, but Oakland and Cincy, who were better than us, didn't get picks. And then we weren't as good the following season so it want as difficult to get the pick.

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[weams]

That information is not released. The formula is secret.

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Ah. I see. So it may be a very miniscule difference. I'd say we have at least a 60% chance of getting one. Would you agree?

[weams]

This isn't the first time this information has been presented to you. I brought this up previously in a different thread talking about probabilities of getting picks.

First year we kind of lucked out, but Oakland and Cincy, who were better than us, didn't get picks. And then we weren't as good the following season so it want as difficult to get the pick.

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I knew that we were not assured. No one has presented any number to me that showed we have less than a 50% probability of obtaining on though. Sorry to have brought the point up again.