Bud Norris 2015

[Can_of_corn]

The key difference here is that He is a free agent after this year. He probably doesn't want to shift to the bullpen as it will cost him millions.

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So will finishing the year with a 7 ERA.

[Il BuonO]

He will reject the assignment and take his money and go. There is no minors for Bud.

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The Orioles aren't in the habit of letting what were key pieces walk right out the door without even a chance of there being a deal. Look at Webb or De Aza. I mean, I'd be happy right now with Gunkel for Norris.

With only one lefty in the pen ( other than Britton ) who do you get rid of for Norris? It isn't clear to me. A guy who can't locate his pitches and looks to have a confidence problem. That isn't like Jimenez going there to work on a mechanical tweak. The BP is the last place I want a pitcher who is having doubts.

[Crazysilver03]

So will finishing the year with a 7 ERA.

Oh I agree. I still think he should have said something was injured and stayed on DL.

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[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles aren't in the habit of letting what were key pieces walk right out the door without even a chance of there being a deal. Look at Webb or De Aza. I mean, I'd be happy right now with Gunkel for Norris.

With only one lefty in the pen ( other than Britton ) who do you get rid of for Norris? It isn't clear to me. A guy who can't locate his pitches and looks to have a confidence problem. That isn't like Jimenez going there to work on a mechanical tweak. The BP is the last place I want a pitcher who is having doubts.

At least in the Bullpen you have some ability to limit the leverage level of his appearances.

[hoosiers]

Not a Bud Norris fan, really never was. The guy has been a career ERA+ 90 guy and by my estimate has performed roughly in line with that in his time with the Os. Never understood why his profile was worth giving up a high draft pick, never understood why Norris was chosen to start the all-important playoff game against the Royals and now here we are 49 regular season appearances and 47 starts with Bud Norris as an Oriole and we have pad about $10+M for his .7 WAR as an Oriole and are still on the hook for another $4M.

Our front office has been so enamored with Norris that he has now entered the territory as the least productive Oriole by WAR since DD has been our GM. No one in DD's tenure here has been allowed to performed so poorly for so long into a season. Norris's negative 1.4 WAR is higher than the -1.1 WAR from Reimold's quarter season in 2013 and Roberts small sample size in 2012. This year's Tillman is also -.9. Other poor WAR performances like Everth Cabrera (-.8), Endy Chavez (-.7 in 2012), Jake Arrieta (-.8 in 2012, -.4 in 2013), Pedro Strop (-.8 in 2013) were all traded or basically dropped though both Arrieta and Strop pitched considerably better immediately after being dealt. Generally, DD appears to not tolerated much past -.5 WAR.

Not sure where we go from here. Whether our FO will hope for a turnaround to Norris career levels (ERA+90) as a fifth starter or if a move to the bullpen will do some good.

Good thing is that Weams assured us that our FO will be able to extract in trade for Norris what we gave up for him .....

Separately, but somewhat related, I am eager to see who else our FO can find to give the ball to every fifth day instead of Kevin Gausman.

[TouchemAll]

This should be his last start with the Orioles. Put him in the bullpen, trade him, release him, I don't care. This club is blessed with outstanding depth in starting pitching. It's time to use it. There is no reason to keep wasting games on Bud Norris while Kevin Gausman and Tyler Wilson are ready to step in to the rotation.

I think before the AS break you can afford to be patient, if Bud can't show some better results and lower that ERA its BP time. I actually think Bud would be GOOD out of the pen against RH's. Either that or what can we trade him for at the dead line?

[OFFNY]

o

I believe that Norris will finish the 2015 season with an ERA of 4.88 ...... based on me saying so.

[e16bball]

I'd be fine with transitioning Bud to the bullpen if there was any room in the bullpen for him. Dan built this team with very little flexibility and adding Parmalee and Reimold to the mix has just made the situation worse.

Well, I can't see any way they go with a 6-man bullpen forever. The 1B/OF/DH glut will have to be resolved from within (probably sooner rather than later) to return the pen to its normal state.

So even if you assume Roe would keep a spot ahead of Norris, you still have room for him if you option McFarland. Yes, you'd be down a lefty. But Norris would certainly replace McFarland's ability to go multiple innings, which is really his primary contribution.

The upside you have with Norris in the pen is far more valuable than McFarland's lefthandedness, at least in my opinion. Norris has the potential to move into the #3 slot behind Britton and O'Day if his stuff plays up in the pen. And given what we saw from Miller/O'Day/Britton and Herrera/Davis/Holland last season down the stretch and in the playoffs, it's never been more important to have that 3rd guy who can be lights out for you.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that no other reliever we have is going to give us dominance like that. Brach, Hunter, Roe, Matusz, McFarland, WWright...they've all shown they can be very solid, even very good at times. But not that sort of overwhelming, lock-down dominance that leaves hitters flailing. Norris has the stuff to be that. Will he? Who knows. But I think it's worth optioning McFarland in order to take a chance on finding out.

The key difference here is that He is a free agent after this year. He probably doesn't want to shift to the bullpen as it will cost him millions.

Yes, it probably will cost him millions. But I think he's running that risk one way or the other at this point.

His only other option (as I see it) is forcing his way out --- refusing to pitch in the bullpen, being DFA'd, refusing a MiL assignment when he wasn't claimed on waivers, and then becoming a FA. I'm not sure that would be a very wise course of action on his part either. Who's going to want to take a meaningful chance on him, no matter how he pitches the rest of the season, if they believe he's going to become a problem the second things don't go his way? Especially when everyone is basically aware that Buck has already given him a longer leash and more benefit of the doubt than many managers would...

The millions are gone. You pitch half a season to a 6.79 ERA (with league-worst peripherals), you're not getting the big FA deal as a starter. You're getting a one-year make-good deal. And I think he'd set himself up best to get one of those by being a team player, by doing what Buck thinks is best for the team, and by going out and dominating out of the pen. He's not going to help himself by becoming a problem child. And quite honestly, I just don't think that's who Bud Norris is. He's a good guy and a team guy. I think, eventually at least, he'd embrace the chance to contribute to the team down the stretch --- even if it's not in the role he'd most prefer.

Hell, he might even love it. I don't think it's at all out of the realm of possibility that a guy like Bud Norris would love a role where he could just let it fly, flirt with triple digits, pile up strikeouts, and pitch in the big moments.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

Well, I can't see any way they go with a 6-man bullpen forever. The 1B/OF/DH glut will have to be resolved from within (probably sooner rather than later) to return the pen to its normal state.

So even if you assume Roe would keep a spot ahead of Norris, you still have room for him if you option McFarland. Yes, you'd be down a lefty. But Norris would certainly replace McFarland's ability to go multiple innings, which is really his primary contribution.

The upside you have with Norris in the pen is far more valuable than McFarland's lefthandedness, at least in my opinion. Norris has the potential to move into the #3 slot behind Britton and O'Day if his stuff plays up in the pen. And given what we saw from Miller/O'Day/Britton and Herrera/Davis/Holland last season down the stretch and in the playoffs, it's never been more important to have that 3rd guy who can be lights out for you.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that no other reliever we have is going to give us dominance like that. Brach, Hunter, Roe, Matusz, McFarland, WWright...they've all shown they can be very solid, even very good at times. But not that sort of overwhelming, lock-down dominance that leaves hitters flailing. Norris has the stuff to be that. Will he? Who knows. But I think it's worth optioning McFarland in order to take a chance on finding out.

This. And, frankly, if he continues to struggle as a starter in his next few starts, I think it's what we'll do. I can't see a scenario in which we just DFA Bud without trying him in the pen first. Additionally, as I mentioned before, I'm sure he won't be happy, especially in a walk year, but it's not like we haven't given him a shot. He doesn't have much of a leg to stand on in that regard, in my opinion.

We need AN arm out there, but there's no specific guy who should unquestionably be out there more than others. Nor is there a roster crunch with bullpen guys specifically (given how Wesley Wright has looked in rehab, we may just cut him loose). You give Bud a chance out there because he could be a weapon.

[weams]

This. And, frankly, if he continues to struggle as a starter in his next few starts, I think it's what we'll do. I can't see a scenario in which we just DFA Bud without trying him in the pen first. Additionally, as I mentioned before, I'm sure he won't be happy, especially in a walk year, but it's not like we haven't given him a shot. He doesn't have much of a leg to stand on in that regard, in my opinion.

We need AN arm out there, but there's no specific guy who should unquestionably be out there more than others. Nor is there a roster crunch with bullpen guys specifically (given how Wesley Wright has looked in rehab, we may just cut him loose). You give Bud a chance out there because he could be a weapon.

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2015/06/30/scott-mcgregor-on-the-struggles-of-bud-norris/

[weams]

Not a Bud Norris fan, really never was. The guy has been a career ERA+ 90 guy and by my estimate has performed roughly in line with that in his time with the Os. Never understood why his profile was worth giving up a high draft pick, never understood why Norris was chosen to start the all-important playoff game against the Royals and now here we are 49 regular season appearances and 47 starts with Bud Norris as an Oriole and we have pad about $10+M for his .7 WAR as an Oriole and are still on the hook for another $4M.

Our front office has been so enamored with Norris that he has now entered the territory as the least productive Oriole by WAR since DD has been our GM. No one in DD's tenure here has been allowed to performed so poorly for so long into a season. Norris's negative 1.4 WAR is higher than the -1.1 WAR from Reimold's quarter season in 2013 and Roberts small sample size in 2012. This year's Tillman is also -.9. Other poor WAR performances like Everth Cabrera (-.8), Endy Chavez (-.7 in 2012), Jake Arrieta (-.8 in 2012, -.4 in 2013), Pedro Strop (-.8 in 2013) were all traded or basically dropped though both Arrieta and Strop pitched considerably better immediately after being dealt. Generally, DD appears to not tolerated much past -.5 WAR.

Not sure where we go from here. Whether our FO will hope for a turnaround to Norris career levels (ERA+90) as a fifth starter or if a move to the bullpen will do some good.

Good thing is that Weams assured us that our FO will be able to extract in trade for Norris what we gave up for him .....

Separately, but somewhat related, I am eager to see who else our FO can find to give the ball to every fifth day instead of Kevin Gausman.

Two minor leaguers and the equivalent of a million dollar lottery ticket. Yep. I still stand by that.

[Can_of_corn]

Two minor leaguers and the equivalent of a million dollar lottery ticket. Yep. I still stand by that.

And the slot money.

Don't forget the slot money.

[weams]

And the slot money.

Don't forget the slot money.

Yeah, sorry. Can't cover that part. But Heck. Angelos is rich. We don't need no money.

[25 Nuggets]

That might have been the swan song for Norris. Four home runs? And his pitches were all over the place.

[hoosiers]

Two minor leaguers and the equivalent of a million dollar lottery ticket. Yep. I still stand by that.

I stand by what I said at that time - you are high off your rocker if you think a team is giving up a supplemental round pick for Norris.