Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[Sports Guy]

I have a crazy question. What exactly are we debating here?

It seems that SG seems pressed to get Dave to admit that Roberts is better than Derosa, when he already has....

Either way, it's hard to determine Roberts' value. 2005 is a season he hasn't had since and may never have again, but his follow-up to that 2005 season was plagued by an elbow injury.

How much more BRob is worth than DeRosa...I say 2-4 wins and most things seem to back me up on that.

I think DeRosa on the bench will be a 1-2 win improvement for the bench.

I said the trade would improve the Cubs 5 wins...Maybe 5 is too high...Maybe it will be 3-4 but 5 isn't out of the question.

[mefogus]

How much more BRob is worth than DeRosa...I say 2-4 wins and most things seem to back me up on that.

Are you still sticking to your 8-9 wins for BRob?

-m

[JTrea81]

I have a crazy question. What exactly are we debating here?

Roberts vs DeRosa, the same thing that gets debated in every Roberts to Cubs thread by the same two posters. I wish this saga would end just so I wouldn't have to see these debates again...

[Sports Guy]

Are you still sticking to your 8-9 wins for BRob?

-m

I certainly think he could, yes.....Especially if he sat versus some lefties and went to the inferior league.

I would expect his numbers to increase some.

[davearm]

I'm not gonna get into the WHIPS, DIPS and potato chips stat mongering and twisting that you all seem to love...but it's not like Roberts is an unknown quantity. You can pretty much bank on a .370+ on base percentage and 10-15 homers from the leadoff spot. Depending on the manager and the running game he prefers, he can steal 30-50 bases.

It's not rocket science...as much as some like to make it chess, it ain't. It's checkers.

The only thing to worry about Roberts is to figure out when he'll stop being productive and when he'll start his decline...that's anyones guess and that horse has been beaten to a bloody pulp, so bad that it can't even get sent to the Elmer's factory right now.

See this is the thing right here. People want to paint Roberts as some Mr. Consistency that's a lock for the numbers you just cited.

Well the problem with that line of reasoning is that he has not come close to a .370 OBP in three of the last five years. In fact he's been below .350 each time (.337, .344, .347 to be exact).

I think it's perfectly reasonable to worry that Roberts will return to being the hitter he was in those "off" years.

Maybe he has matured and improved beyond '03 and '04. Maybe an injury did sabotage him in '06. Those are all very reasonable premises.

But it's equally reasonable to think '05 was an outlier, '07 is the ceiling, and something similar to 03/04/06 is very possible.

So if you take a step back and take a more conservative view, then no, you can't put .370, 10-15 HRs, 30-50 SBs in the bank. You can hope for that, and maybe you'll get it. But I can't see how you can assume it.

And many here do indeed assume numbers like that.

[mefogus]

I certainly think he could, yes.....Especially if he sat versus some lefties and went to the inferior league.

Please excuse my ignorance. But I thought your argument was BRob's value to the Orioles?

-m

[davearm]

How much more BRob is worth than DeRosa...I say 2-4 wins and most things seem to back me up on that.

I think DeRosa on the bench will be a 1-2 win improvement for the bench.

I said the trade would improve the Cubs 5 wins...Maybe 5 is too high...Maybe it will be 3-4 but 5 isn't out of the question.

No, actually most things disagree with you on that.

[Sports Guy]

See this is the thing right here. People want to paint Roberts as some Mr. Consistency that's a lock for the numbers you just cited.

Well the problem with that line of reasoning is that he has not come close to a .370 OBP in three of the last five years. In fact he's been below .350 each time (.337, .344, .347 to be exact).

I think it's perfectly reasonable to worry that Roberts will return to being the hitter he was in those "off" years.

Maybe he has matured and improved beyond '03 and '04. Maybe an injury did sabotage him in '06. Those are all very reasonable premises.

But it's equally reasonable to think '05 was an outlier, '07 is the ceiling, and something similar to 03/04/06 is very possible.

So if you take a step back and take a more conservative view, then no, you can't put .370, 10-15 HRs, 30-50 SBs in the bank. You can hope for that, and maybe you'll get it. But I can't see how you can assume it.

And many here do indeed assume numbers like that.

And what are you assuming for DeRosa?

[Sports Guy]

Please excuse my ignorance. But I thought your argument was BRob's value to the Orioles?

-m

I am talking about BRob going to the Cubs and what he would be worth to them versus what DeRosa would be worth.

[Pedro Cerrano]

And what are you assuming for DeRosa?

.320/.400/.650?

[mefogus]

I am talking about BRob going to the Cubs and what he would be worth to them versus what DeRosa would be worth.

Fair enough, but I still don't buy 8-9 wins, especially given that his pattern of usage would not be to sit against tough lefties. Que cera cera.

-m

[davearm]

And what are you assuming for DeRosa?

I'm assuming he'll be essentially the same player he's been for the last two years, since he's been very consistent over that timeframe.

If he gets more PT, his counting stats will go up, but his rate stats will remain constant.

[Sports Guy]

Fair enough, but I still don't buy 8-9 wins, especially given that his pattern of usage would not be to sit against tough lefties. Que cera cera.

-m

The Cubs would be stupid to not sit BRob 10-15 games against tough lefties with a guy like DeRosa ready to back him up.

[Sports Guy]

I'm assuming he'll be essentially the same player he's been for the last two years, since he's been very consistent over that timeframe.

If he gets more PT, his counting stats will go up, but his rate stats will remain constant.

So, it is ok for you to assume that, at age 33, DeRosa will remain the player that he never was before 2006 yet it is not ok for us to assume that BRob will be somewhere around the player he has been the last 3 years, while we also take into account his injury in 2006?

So again, you can assume the best but the Orioles player has to be worse...Got it!

[davearm]

The Cubs would be stupid to not sit BRob 10-15 games against tough lefties with a guy like DeRosa ready to back him up.

I don't think you realize that this would serve to lower his WARP.

You don't hit more HRs by taking more days off, and you don't accumulate more WARP by taking days off, either.