Is it all a mirage?

[wildcard]

As the O's climb to 3 over .500, two back of the Rays, I have to question if the surge is real or just a product of the schedule.

In June the O's have played many games vs losing teams. Cleveland, Boston and the Phillies have accounted for 9 of the 16 games so far and they have 7 more against these teams this month.

I am not complaining. Its nice to win. But I do have to wonder if the surge in offense is because the O's are getting better or is it because the pitchers they are facing are subpar?

Probably a little bit of both is true. I guess we won't really know how good the O's are until July when the O's play 19 of their 25 games vs teams with winning records.

[Frobby]

No doubt the schedule has helped us. But part of being a winning team is dominating the bad teams. I'm glad we've done that this month, and built some momentum and confidence that hopefully will help when the schedule gets tougher.

[Mendoza Line]

As the O's climb to 3 over .500, two back of the Rays, I have to question if the surge is real or just a product of the schedule.

In June the O's have played many games vs losing teams. Cleveland, Boston and the Phillies have accounted for 9 of the 16 games so far and they have 7 more against these teams this month.

I am not complaining. Its nice to win. But I do have to wonder if the surge in offense is because the O's are getting better or is it because the pitchers they are facing are subpar?

Probably a little bit of both is true. I guess we won't really know how good the O's are until July when the O's play 19 of their 25 games vs teams with winning records.

You did selectively leave out the Yankees, whom we dominated for two games and very well could have swept if we didn't rely on Matusz on game 3. We won't be tested by really good pitching for awhile so it will be hard to say at least about the rejuvenated offense. I'm concerned more about the pitching, especially against Toronto

[fearthenoodle]

For the season (not just for June), the team has the...

*3rd best OPS in the AL (5th most runs scored, 3rd most HRs)

*5th best ERA in the AL (bullpen ERA is 3rd, bullpen is averaging over a K per inning)

*the fewest errors in the AL (9th in the majors in defensive efficiency)

So while there will still be peaks and valleys, and it's too soon to really say just how good they are, I would lean away from it being a mirage.

[Aristotelian]

Yes and yes. All teams have soft spots in their schedule. Toronto series will be a great test of whether this is for real.

[Frobby]

Our W-L record, by team

BOS 7 3

CHW 2 1

CLE 2 1

HOU 3 4

LAA 1 2

MIA 1 2

NYM 0 2

NYY 5 5

PHI 3 0

SEA 2 1

TBR 5 4

TOR 3 6

Notably, we haven't played the Royals, Tigers, Twins, Rangers, Nats, Braves, or A's, all of whom remain on our schedule.

The Yankees, Rays and Jay haven't played the Phillies yet. The Yankees play them next week.

[ShaneDawg85]

When they lost 2/3 to Miami people like Roy Firestone were on here complaining that they weren't "getting fat" against "bad teams." I'm always annoyed by comments like that, number 1 because there was a time not that long ago where the Orioles fit that description, and number two because this isn't football, good teams lose games and series to bad teams all the time. But now we go from we're supposed to beat "bad teams" to do we only look this good because we're beating "bad teams?" My view is, who cares. We just took 7/8 at home and five of those seven wins came against teams in our own division, including a team that's still ahead of us. Good record or bad record, really, what does it matter when you win?

[MurphDogg]

You are never as good as you look when you are winning nor as bad as you look when you are losing.

In mid-May, I posted this:

If we are below .500 at the All Star Break, I will be worried. The schedule from now until then is pretty easy and I think we will right the ship.

Schedule stuff (mostly) evens out over time. The Orioles have played a tougher schedule to this point than the Rays and Red Sox and an easier schedule than the Yankees and Blue Jays.

[Herman]

I don't think it's a mirage. Getting Wieters back was huge and Hardy is starting to look healthier. The outfield defense has improved and getting rid of De Aza and Cabrera was addition by subtraction. I don't think the offense is as good as they've been in June but I certainly don't think it as as bad as it was in April. I expect this team to win 84-88 games as it is currently constructed. Of course, if a couple guys get hot and play to their potential (ie Gausman) then this could be a 90 win team again.

[TheDirtyBird]

I would say that we are fortunate to play the Phillies to start this week, however like most other sports teams and players find opportunities to get in rhythms and run with it.

If you ever watch basketball guys will shoot the ball during a dead ball or timeout just to get their rhythm, which is why opponents will go up to catch it, to not allow rhythm to be developed. In golf you might play a couple easy holes and get your swing adjusted.

We (the orioles) are currently in a spot that is letting them relax and work on parts of their swings. No offense to the phillies, it kind of seems like they're getting extra batting practice, but in a live sense.

So mirage no, fantastic momentum building opportunity, yes

[wildcard]

You did selectively leave out the Yankees, whom we dominated for two games and very well could have swept if we didn't rely on Matusz on game 3. We won't be tested by really good pitching for awhile so it will be hard to say at least about the rejuvenated offense. I'm concerned more about the pitching, especially against Toronto

If didn't selective leave out anything. I said the O's have played losing teams in 9 of 16 games in June. If you can count you know that the O's have played teams with winning records in 7 games in June.

I was just pointing out that at this point in the season the O's winning is aided by the schedule. Therefore, how much the addition of Wieters, Hardy, Reimold and Parmelee has improved the team will not be known until the O's play some winning teams in July.

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think it's a mirage. Getting Wieters back was huge and Hardy is starting to look healthier. The outfield defense has improved and getting rid of De Aza and Cabrera was addition by subtraction. I don't think the offense is as good as they've been in June but I certainly don't think it as as bad as it was in April. I expect this team to win 84-88 games as it is currently constructed. Of course, if a couple guys get hot and play to their potential (ie Gausman) then this could be a 90 win team again.

Awesome post.

[Herman]

Correction - not as bad as it was in May

[Redskins Rick]

I mean I hope not. It's not like we're 10 games over .500 here. We're 3 games over, that's certainly still not as good as this team is supposed to be.

Nor, was this team as bad as their record was.

Like some of us have been saying, this season was similar to last season, last season they didnt come out of the gate strong.

They had injuries and finally mid June, they caught fire and well, we know the history.

[MurphDogg]

I mean I hope not. It's not like we're 10 games over .500 here. We're 3 games over, that's certainly still not as good as this team is supposed to be.

It is still an 85 win pace. I thought they were an 86-90 win team, so not far off.