Matusz - Is it possible?

[DrungoHazewood]

...and the fanbase unhappy about the Davies trade, the pressure will be on to avoid any young Orioles pitcher having success for another organization.

Well, the 2% of the fanbase who'd ever heard of Zach Davies.

[Redskins Rick]

Well, the 2% of the fanbase who'd ever heard of Zach Davies.

As opposed to the 98% of the fan base, that is never happy with anything. :rofl:

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think any pitcher will last long as a starter if RHB hit them to the tune of .749 OPS.

Isn't the league OPS something like .730? And that's slanted by relievers who almost certainly have a lower OPSvs? I would assume an average left-handed MLB starter allows an OPS vs. RHB of something like .749.

[Aglets]

Isn't the league OPS something like .730? And that's slanted by relievers who almost certainly have a lower OPSvs? I would assume an average left-handed MLB starter allows an OPS vs. RHB of something like .749.

Hmmm, apparently our own Wei Yin Chen is getting hit by righties to the tune of .814 (.770 for his career). I guess that bodes a bit better for Matusz. Do you think there's a chance Buck and Dan would try this? As bleak as our pitching situation looks right now.......it's hard for me to see them going for this.

[Frobby]

Starting to wonder if Matusz finally gets his shot to start against in 2016. Starting is the only way he is worth what he is going to get paid in arb.

I could challenge that assumption. BB-ref has him at 1.1 WAR this year -- that's worth about $8 mm. Fangraphs has him at 0.6 WAR and $4.9 mm, and says he's been worth about $20 mm over the last four seasons. He'll probably get about $5 mm in arbitration, maybe a little less. So, he'll be paid about what he's worth. But there certainly won't be any excess value and you might conclude it would be better to spend the $5 mm elsewhere.

[DrungoHazewood]

I could challenge that assumption. BB-ref has him at 1.1 WAR this year -- that's worth about $8 mm. Fangraphs has him at 0.6 WAR and $4.9 mm, and says he's been worth about $20 mm over the last four seasons. He'll probably get about $5 mm in arbitration, maybe a little less. So, he'll be paid about what he's worth. But there certainly won't be any excess value and you might conclude it would be better to spend the $5 mm elsewhere.

I'll make the argument that there are so many non-arb/non-free agent players at the low end of the scale that the WAR/dollar in free agency calculation breaks down there. Teams are more likely to just pass on a 1-win player, or even more so a half-win player, than pay them going free agent rates. Kind of goes back to the argument that five one-win players isn't the same impact, at all, as one five-win player. You could argue that a very poor full-time outfielder worth 0.75 WAR is worth (0.75 x $7M, roughly $5M), but no one would pay that rate expecting to get 0.75 wins. They'd just go get a $500k body instead.

[25 Nuggets]

Yep. It could be a very valuable $5 mil saved. Predicated on being about to invest that money in a really good player. I'll put it this way -- I'd rather they pay Matusz arbitration than do nothing with the money. But y'all know I am bullish on good bullpens.

[sportsfan8703]

Hmmm, apparently our own Wei Yin Chen is getting hit by righties to the tune of .814 (.770 for his career). I guess that bodes a bit better for Matusz. Do you think there's a chance Buck and Dan would try this? As bleak as our pitching situation looks right now.......it's hard for me to see them going for this.

Good posts in this thread. The thing with trying him as a starter again is that he'd have to be tendered before ST. So he'd be making his 5 million either way. Honestly if they wanted to try him as a starter, now would be the best time. I would not be against that. He could get in 5ish starts the rest of the season. However, if we don't go that route we should look to trade him for something anything during the offseason before we non tender him.

[LookitsPuck]

Hmmm, apparently our own Wei Yin Chen is getting hit by righties to the tune of .814 (.770 for his career). I guess that bodes a bit better for Matusz. Do you think there's a chance Buck and Dan would try this? As bleak as our pitching situation looks right now.......it's hard for me to see them going for this.

Not sure it bodes too well. How many times does Matusz go through the order? Could you imagine him being stretched out? Velocity down, "stuff" down...more righties (stronger righties). Right now they're picking/choosing where to put him. His walk rate against righties is poor (pitching around). You can't do that as much as a starter.

[birdcrazy]

There was a time when he had the brightest prospects of any of the cavalry. Next year, we need a left handed starter, and I would love to see him given one more chance to make the rotation. Sadly, I get the feeling that he is in the place Arrieta was, where the org. has a certain vision for how he should pitch, and he does not fit it. The only reason he is still with the team is a Loogy is useful..Arrieta was harder to carry.

[25 Nuggets]

There was a time when he had the brightest prospects of any of the cavalry. Next year, we need a left handed starter, and I would love to see him given one more chance to make the rotation. Sadly, I get the feeling that he is in the place Arrieta was, where the org. has a certain vision for how he should pitch, and he does not fit it. The only reason he is still with the team is a Loogy is useful..Arrieta was harder to carry.

One must wonder. Maybe we can trade him to the Cubs for Pedro Strop?

[Can_of_corn]

Doesn't seem to be.

[Bird Dog]

I think the guy is terrible....watched him his whole career....he can put some decent "stats" up as long as it doesn't have anything to do with winning, however he's real good at "cherrypicking" a win from someone else.....please let some other team pay this guy....if he hadn't been a first round draft pick, no one would remember his name by now.

[abbott]

I think the guy is terrible....watched him his whole career....he can put some decent "stats" up as long as it doesn't have anything to do with winning, however he's real good at "cherrypicking" a win from someone else.....please let some other team pay this guy....if he hadn't been a first round draft pick, no one would remember his name by now.

I'm wondering if they feel the need to keep him around so they can atlas point out that a 1st round draft pick wasn't a complete waste.

He was a consensus top choice. The fault lay not with his selection but his development. He wasn't a HS pick, he wasn't a little guy, he wasn't injury prone. He was everything you'd want. He came from a good college program.

Failure of development, or a league wide failure to identify talent

Buster Posey was the #5 pick that year. He's on a HOF arc.

[25 Nuggets]

Well, the way the amateur draft works, the league fails to identify talent many times a year. That's why so many high draft picks don't make it, or if they do, it's in a diminished role. Moreso than in the other major team sports. The first pick, Timothy Beckham has a worse career than Matusz. The #6 pick was some dude named Kyle Skipworth (?!?).

But yeah, I'm beginning to believe development > talent with these things. Look at what Saint Louis is doing.