Relying on Draft Picks - a history lesson

[Gofannon]

I see a lot of talk about all of the draft picks we will have in the 2016 draft if we give qualifying offers to all of our free agents. Thoughts are all over the board with who to resign/who not to resign, but there has been a lot of discussion about the bounty we'll have if we add picks for Wieters/Davis/Chen/etc.

In 1999, the Orioles had 7 picks in the top 50. They were:

Mike Paradis

Richard Stahl

Larry Bigbie

Keith Reed

Josh Cenate

Scott Rice

Brian Roberts

One all-star, one player who was probably a league-average corner outfielder at best for 5 years, one player with a cup of coffee in the bigs, and four picks that never saw the majors.

While one would hope we could manage a bigger haul than that, there isn't much that I've seen from our scouting department that suggests a major upgrade in what we get. Given the realistic time it would take for even successful draft picks to contribute, I worry about how this strategy will work out.

I am all for getting picks when we can, but I don't want to build our philosophy around that. I worry that strategy will leave us with an upcoming offseason of dumpster-diving. We all watched this last offseason and saw what that looks like.

[Can_of_corn]

So you are relying on one data point almost 20 years old?

[paulcoates]

If I were the Orioles I would find out who the best scouts, crosscheckers, etc... were in the game. Then I would go offer every single one of them a $25k raise to scout for the Orioles. If that didn't work, keep upping the ante or move on to a very well respected 2nd, 3rd. These guys don't make a lot of money, so I suspect they would bite sooner rather than later.

Then, I would find out who the best minor league coaches were in the game and then make the same offer to every single one of them.

I could be wrong, but I really think that a big part of the Orioles issues over the years is their inability to develop full time players. Considering this team will never spend money with the big boys they need to find the only other way. Advanced statistics will only get you so far these days as a lot of teams currently use them.

[vab]

They have to rely on the draft if they plan on competing with a mid-market payroll, there's no other way. They haven't done well in the past but they're going to have to figure it out.

[Gofannon]

So you are relying on one data point almost 20 years old?

More a cautionary tale. I think some are overconfident of what a bunch of draft picks will give this team, and I fear a genuine step back from this team in the near future.

[Can_of_corn]

More a cautionary tale. I think some are overconfident of what a bunch of draft picks will give this team, and I fear a genuine step back from this team in the near future.

I don't think that step back is less likely if the O's don't cash in on the draft picks.

[Gofannon]

By the way, let me freely admit that I don't have the answer, and I don't think resigning Wieters/Davis/Chen/O'Day is the solution either. I just think people seem overconfident in the "just take the draft pick" strategy. Or resigned to it.

[Gofannon]

I don't think that step back is less likely if the O's don't cash in on the draft picks.

I understand your point. I guess I was saying that I don't want it to preclude us from signing people who would help next year's team, both our own free agents AND free agents from other teams.

[weams]

More a cautionary tale. I think some are overconfident of what a bunch of draft picks will give this team, and I fear a genuine step back from this team in the near future.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=tex

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2011/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=hou

And yet, it can be done. And done well. I'll take my shot. FA's are a much bigger bust factor.

History - A Cautionary Tale of FA acquisition and retention.

[Can_of_corn]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=tex

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2011/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=hou

And yet, it can be done. And done well. I'll take my shot. FA's are a much bigger bust factor.

History - A Cautionary Tale of FA acquisition and retention.

Didn't the Cardinals also have a stupid good draft a few years ago?

[weams]

Didn't the Cardinals also have a stupid good draft a few years ago?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=stl#ft=team&fv=sln

[Stotle]

If I were the Orioles I would find out who the best scouts, crosscheckers, etc... were in the game. Then I would go offer every single one of them a $25k raise to scout for the Orioles. If that didn't work, keep upping the ante or move on to a very well respected 2nd, 3rd. These guys don't make a lot of money, so I suspect they would bite sooner rather than later.

Then, I would find out who the best minor league coaches were in the game and then make the same offer to every single one of them.

I could be wrong, but I really think that a big part of the Orioles issues over the years is their inability to develop full time players. Considering this team will never spend money with the big boys they need to find the only other way. Advanced statistics will only get you so far these days as a lot of teams currently use them.

You can't hire away without a bump in title, and even then you need permission. I'd focus on getting highly respected/trusted guys at the very top positions and hoping others want to come work for them. Many scouts will stay where they are comfortable since it's not a given you'll have a re-up on your contract when it expires.

[LookitsPuck]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=stl#ft=team&fv=sln

Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Carpenter, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller. Wow.

Not including some of the draft picks still in the minors or have been flipped.

[Can_of_corn]

Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Carpenter, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller. Wow.

Not including some of the draft picks still in the minors or have been flipped.

There was a reason that draft stuck in my head.

But hey, we got Givens.

[Moose Milligan]

If I were the Orioles I would find out who the best scouts, crosscheckers, etc... were in the game. Then I would go offer every single one of them a $25k raise to scout for the Orioles. If that didn't work, keep upping the ante or move on to a very well respected 2nd, 3rd. These guys don't make a lot of money, so I suspect they would bite sooner rather than later.

Then, I would find out who the best minor league coaches were in the game and then make the same offer to every single one of them.

I could be wrong, but I really think that a big part of the Orioles issues over the years is their inability to develop full time players. Considering this team will never spend money with the big boys they need to find the only other way. Advanced statistics will only get you so far these days as a lot of teams currently use them.

This would be my strategy as well. I'd offer the most money to the best scouts and talent evaluators, nationally and internationally.