Thoughts about opt-out clauses?

[weams]

Atlanta went 79-83 the last year with Heyward. If the Orioles did that you'd call them a contender and thank them for the joyful season they gave you. That's my sense of humor at work. Pretty good, IMO.

Nor sure what your Cespedes comment means. They A's were good at the time they traded him.

I think your humor is just poking fun at me and not considering that the entire team was dismantled other than the addition of Markakis to replace Heyward. I would say the way John Hart and I looked at that team was consistent. Talk to me about losing teams in Baltimore when there is one. I might agree with your approach.

[JLee2027]

I don't see either Hayward or Upton being a superstar like Machado. And that's a fact Jack.

[Crazysilver03]

I don't see either Hayward or Upton being a superstar like Machado. And that's a fact Jack.

Heyward just got an 8 year deal worth $23M per year. May be behind Machado a little but not by much.

And you are also ignoring how they were valued at the time they were traded and assigning themy their current value.

[El Gordo]

Heyward just got an 8 year deal worth $23M per year. May be behind Machado a little but not by much.

And you are also ignoring how they were valued at the time they were traded and assigning themy their current value.

Machado is a better fielder and a Much better hitter at age 26 barring injury. He will get at least 30M a AAV.

[Crazysilver03]

Machado is a better fielder and a Much better hitter at age 26 barring injury. He will get at least 30M a AAV.

I am not arguing that. I just find it funny that JLEE is trying to disqualify Heyward even though both players are top 10ish in a league of over 250+ players.

[JLee2027]

I am not arguing that. I just find it funny that JLEE is trying to disqualify Heyward even though both players are top 10ish in a league of over 250+ players.

You may disagree with my opinion, but there is no reason to get personal about it.

Tell me, what point are you trying to make exactly?

[Crazysilver03]

You may disagree with my opinion, but there is no reason to get personal about it.

Tell me, what point are you trying to make exactly?

How exactly did I make it personal? If you realize I am disagreeing with you then you actually know my point.

[Frobby]

Frobby asked for examples of .500ish teams that traded young superstars. I came up with 3 in 2 seconds flat. The Braves won 96 gamed in 2013 and 79 in 2014. They traded Heywsrd for Shelby Miller. Arizona won 81 games in 2014 and traded Upton with 2 years to FA to Atlanta. That's the facts Jack. I advocate trading Mschado after what looks to be shaping up as a bad year, this year. We won't sign him.

I think those are pretty decent examples. I did specify "young superstar," and I think Manny fits that category better than Cespedes, Heyward or Upton, with Heyward coming closest of the three.

[JLee2027]

How exactly did I make it personal? If you realize I am disagreeing with you then you actually know my point.

You addressed me by name and called by post funny.

Sounds personal to me. And no, I don't get your point.

You go your way and I'll go mine.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/the-dollar-value-of-recent-opt-out-clauses.html

Each of these three deals would be substantially more expensive without opt-out provisions?each opt-out clause is worth around $20MM, by my calculations. To test this, I looked at how a rough weighting of previous years? WAR would affect a future projection, and compared this to how that projection would crystalize as it got closer. This led to an estimate that a very rough projection of future value 2-3 years in advance would change by about 1.0 WAR over the following 2-3 years. A more sophisticated system would probably change by about 0.7 WAR as it gets closer?and dollar value would probably change by about $7MM per year after accounting for overall uncertainty in salary levels.

[Creamsicle]

SIAP but it seems to me the player opt-out in baseball is a lot like the de facto teap opt-out in the NFL - referring to the lack of guaranteed contract term.

As others have stated elsewhere, and I agree: an opt-out after the 3rd year is like a 3-year deal with a baloon risk at the end if the player underperforms.

In any case, I'm kinda turned off by the whole idea... but I don't own a team.

[Creamsicle]

You addressed me by name and called by post funny.

Sounds personal to me. And no, I don't get your point.

You go your way and I'll go mine.

I went back to look, and it appears that Crazysilver called your post funny, rather than calling you funny. There is a difference between criticizing a statement and criticizing the person making the statement. The latter is personal; the former is not.

[Stotle]

The only argument I've found somewhat convincing as far as being opposed to opt-outs after the third year is if that opt-out is accompanied by many more guaranteed years than you would otherwise have agreed to (especially since the opt-out would come with an overall decrease in cost).

In other words, if you are okay with a 7/140 deal then I don't see an issue with giving out a 7/120 with an opt-out after year 3.

The exception is the rare case where you have someone as a FA at age 26/27. Even then, you are less likely to run into the "bad" scenario where the player is bad and you are on the hook. And if the player is bad, he is still young enough that he can bounce back some so long as it is not injury-related.

Give me a three-year deal any day of the week. I'd be taking on the long term risk anyway, and if the player opts-out I get a pick and can make a new determination as to whether or not I want that player at his advanced age or to go in another direction.

[Creamsicle]

I wasn't aware that there are compensatory draft picks involved with opt-outs... ?

Generally the whole idea just smells a little like lopsiding the risk to me.

[Can_of_corn]

I wasn't aware that there are compensatory draft picks involved with opt-outs... ?

Generally the whole idea just smells a little like lopsiding the risk to me.

No reason you can't slap a QO offer on someone who opts out.