Who Is A Better Fit For Orioles: Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo or Mat Latos?

[backwardsk]

I guess I'll just break it down this way:

1. I personally think signing Gallardo would be dumb, in part because of his K rate falling off a cliff and the fact that he outpitched his FIP by a sizable amount. Not to mention the whole giving up more hits than innings pitched thing.

2. The Astros are certainly looking at those statistics, plus a bunch of other ridiculously advanced things that we don't have at our disposal

3. Despite those three red flags, they still deem him someone worth going after, which makes me re-think my opinion.

It's not crazy to follow the lead of teams that clearly know what they're doing. Look at all the NBA teams that try to copy the Spurs.

Zimmermann and Samardija gave up more hits than innings pitched last season too.

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[ChicagoTerp]

Hey the Cards were willing to go to jail to copy the Stros. I don't think it's crazy for us fans to take a cue from them every now and then.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't have the link handy, but the value of a #10-15 pick over the six years of team control is something like $20M. Remember, that's only about three wins. But still, if you're paying $50M for Gallardo you're only paying for seven wins.

I guess you could so some fancy math to figure out the four-year, 2016-19 equivalent of three wins from 2018-2023, but I was just using $20M as the present-day equivalent. If you have a better number, go for it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Zimmermann and Samardija gave up more hits than innings pitched last season too.

Allowing a lot of hits per inning might be a sign of a guy with a high LD rate, or it might be really bad BABIP luck and a bounceback candidate.

[weams]

We as in fans.

Makes sense. Got it.

[weams]

Hey the Cards were willing to go to jail to copy the Stros. I don't think it's crazy for us fans to take a cue from them every now and then.

He'll be well taken care of

Family. A beautiful thing.

[TradeAngelos]

Looking at the 12-16 picks as well, it looks like there is about a 15 percent chance that the #14 pick is an All-Star, a 25 percent chance he is an MLB contributor an a 60 percent chance he does nothing.

That sounds about right. For the entire 1st rd getting All Star level player is about 8% rate overall.

[backwardsk]

It's absolutely possible to succeed with a H/9 ratio that high, but considering our ballpark I'd rather stay away from anyone who's giving up more than a hit per inning.

Allowing a lot of hits per inning might be a sign of a guy with a high LD rate, or it might be really bad BABIP luck and a bounceback candidate.

I do like his relatively low HR/9.

[houserocker]

Didn't he have some bizarre start against the Orioles where he was throwing like, half eephus curves or something? I don't really want him, but I have a soft spot for old guys with nine pitches (Fangraphs really lists him as having nine).

Yeah, at least some of his starts would be fun to watch--and for 5 or 6 of them he will be untouchable for 6 innings or so....seriously, though-there are worse guys to take a look at.

[weams]

I do like his relatively low HR/9.

That sounds about right. For the entire 1st rd getting All Star level player is about 8% rate overall.

I don't have the link handy, but the value of a #10-15 pick over the six years of team control is something like $20M. Remember, that's only about three wins. But still, if you're paying $50M for Gallardo you're only paying for seven wins.

I guess you could so some fancy math to figure out the four-year, 2016-19 equivalent of three wins from 2018-2023, but I was just using $20M as the present-day equivalent. If you have a better number, go for it.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

Draft Pick Pre-FA WAR Market Value $ Cost – Market % Net $ – Market % Cost – WAR Net $ – WAR

11-15 4.1 31.2 7.2 24.1 8.9 22.3

[Number5]

Hey the Cards were willing to go to jail to copy the Stros. I don't think it's crazy for us fans to take a cue from them every now and then.

I don't know, of course, but I have my doubts that the guy had any idea that he was risking jail time at the time that he hacked into the Astos' system.

[El Gordo]

Make your jokes....

Perhaps that's why the GM should have done his job last offseason and got the OFer instead of trading young and affordable starting pitching from an already weak minor league system.

What OF? There were no great choices. Aoki? Rasmus? They had good years but were just as likely to be crappy as Snider, DeAza, etc.

[weams]

I don't know, of course, but I have my doubts that the guy had any idea that he was risking jail time at the time that he hacked into the Astos' system.

I wonder why he would not have? It's a pretty big deal. But of course the theft of the proprietary system was another evil.

Ground Control is Finkle.

[DrungoHazewood]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

Thank you kind sir.

[weams]

Thank you kind sir.

Welcome as always.