I want to know more about Lucas Long

[Luke-OH]

Just a little statistical tidbit on Long.

Having watched him pitch this year and last year, I can clearly see the difference in the stuff and the dominance.

However, that type of improvement usually shows up in the statistics as an increase in strikeouts. For Long, this hasn't happened, but that's not to say it hasn't shown up in a measurable way. 

Long has an IFFB (infield fly ball) % of 42.5%. Up from the teens to twenty percent he's had previously (which is already a good number). He's also improved his swinging strike rate to 12.1% from 10.7% last year.

 

To put these numbers in perspective, an IFFB is as good as a strikeout as in its almost always an out. It also tends to correlate with quality of stuff.

Long leads all of the qualified AA pitchers this year in IFFB%. He is second among qualified pitchers in every league and level of the minors, behind only Henry Owens (a guy known for having overwhelming stuff, Long's swinging strike rate is over 3% higher than Owen's FYI).

This has led to him having the best FIP and xFIP among qualified Eastern league pitchers. Again for perspective, his numbers are stronger than Fedde of the nationals who is the same age and is a top 100 prospect.

[Ohfan67]

Thanks for the info philly

[murph]

On 6/19/2017 at 7:14 PM, phillyOs119 said:

I don't know if his secondary pitches are good enough for him to start in the bigs currently.  His fastball, control, and command will definitely play one time through a lineup though.

But, might they give him a chance anyway?  Tillman given a final warning.  Bundy being pulled back.  Definitely going to need some starter innings (especially if Tillman fails again in his next start) from somewhere.  Any other Milb pitcher we think might get a shot?

[Frobby]

Long started today and took the loss: 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 8 K's.   

[MDtransplant757]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Long started today and took the loss: 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 8 K's.   

Not awful. I'd take that on the MLB level

[bpilktree]

That is not the best line very high whip.

[Frobby]

Nice interview from Melewski:  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/07/a-look-at-the-unheralded-pitching-leading-the-eastern-league-in-era.html

[Lucky_13]

So whats the knock on this guy? 

He's been solid but no real talk of AAA or mlb promotion

[scarey1999]

2 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

So whats the knock on this guy? 

He's been solid but no real talk of AAA or mlb promotion

Lack of "stuff". People seem to think he'll struggle at the ML level. 

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Lack of "stuff". People seem to think he'll struggle at the ML level. 

I'd like to qualify this statement, he doesn't lack stuff in the general sense, he's got a grade 60 fastball IMO, heavy, arm side run, mid 90's.  He lacks a consistent secondary pitch, on his best days he'll show you an average curveball and change-up, but they aren't always there.  

I don't think he'll struggle at the MLB level, but I think he's probably not a starter at the MLB level without further development of his off speed pitches.

[scarey1999]

15 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I'd like to qualify this statement, he doesn't lack stuff in the general sense, he's got a grade 60 fastball IMO, heavy, arm side run, mid 90's.  He lacks a consistent secondary pitch, on his best days he'll show you an average curveball and change-up, but they aren't always there.  

I don't think he'll struggle at the MLB level, but I think he's probably not a starter at the MLB level without further development of his off speed pitches.

I knew someone would chime in with more detail. Thanks. 

So yeah rather than say he'd struggle at the ML level, I probably should have said he will likely have difficulty translating his success thus far in the minors when facing quality ML hitters without improving offerings outside of his fastball. 

[Lucky_13]

15 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

I knew someone would chime in with more detail. Thanks. 

So yeah rather than say he'd struggle at the ML level, I probably should have said he will likely have difficulty translating his success thus far in the minors when facing quality ML hitters without improving offerings outside of his fastball. 

Do the Orioles view him as a starter in the future? 

Could he have success as a reliever given the quality of his fastball?

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Do the Orioles view him as a starter in the future? 

Could he have success as a reliever given the quality of his fastball?

I'm pretty high on him, so this is obviously a more favorable account than you'll get from most prospect publications.  I think he'd be a solid reliever at the major league level right now.  The word is that the O's are going to let him start consistently in AA after the all-star break.  I'm on board with this since all he needs is to improve his secondaries a little bit and he'll profile as a starter.  He has the delivery and the command for it.  

[Cumberbundy]

On June 20, 2017 at 2:50 PM, phillyOs119 said:

Just a little statistical tidbit on Long.

Having watched him pitch this year and last year, I can clearly see the difference in the stuff and the dominance.

However, that type of improvement usually shows up in the statistics as an increase in strikeouts. For Long, this hasn't happened, but that's not to say it hasn't shown up in a measurable way. 

Long has an IFFB (infield fly ball) % of 42.5%. Up from the teens to twenty percent he's had previously (which is already a good number). He's also improved his swinging strike rate to 12.1% from 10.7% last year.

 

To put these numbers in perspective, an IFFB is as good as a strikeout as in its almost always an out. It also tends to correlate with quality of stuff.

Long leads all of the qualified AA pitchers this year in IFFB%. He is second among qualified pitchers in every league and level of the minors, behind only Henry Owens (a guy known for having overwhelming stuff, Long's swinging strike rate is over 3% higher than Owen's FYI).

This has led to him having the best FIP and xFIP among qualified Eastern league pitchers. Again for perspective, his numbers are stronger than Fedde of the nationals who is the same age and is a top 100 prospect.

That iffb number is the craziest stat I've ever seen. 

[Cumberbundy]

Not a good evening for Long in the all star game.