2016 3rd Round Pick - Austin Hays - OF - Jacksonville University Florida

[OsEatAlEast]

Not to single you out, but this comes up every year: this is not a good way of analyzing draft picks. Past the top 20 or so, there is no real reason to pay attention to third-party ranking numbers. The words that are written about the players, sure, but this isn't the NFL draft. Calling a second- or third-round pick a "reach" based on BA or MLB's lists is silly. There are more than 30 different player rankings compiled each year, and we only get to see two. We have no idea what the "consensus" is, because it's formed primarily by the 30 lists we don't get to see. Hays, for example, is a "steal" by BA's list, but a "reach" by MLB's. In 2011, Jason Esposito was a "steal" while Mike Wright was a "reach." In 2013, Josh Hart was taken right where the rankings had him, while Chance Sisco was taken two rounds too early.

What I'm trying to say is this: make up your own mind. Learn to scout. Watch videos of guys, and talk about what you see. It's not that hard, and if you end up being way wrong, so what? Even the best in the business are wrong all the time.

Well to be fair. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the lists. What I do pay attention to is how they did in their league. Along with scouting reports. That's what I meant about "taking the good player".

[Capn Vivi]

Wow, I have not seen that before, but I remember Stephen A. Smith's initial reaction. Just fantastic.

[eb45]

Well to be fair. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the lists. What I do pay attention to is how they did in their league. Along with scouting reports. That's what I meant about "taking the good player".

Yeah, I wasn't trying to single you out -- just want to issue some words of caution re: hot takes on guys you've never seen.

[eb45]

Watching footage of Hays, I can't get George Springer out of my head. That is meant in no way to suggest Hays is the sort of player Springer is, or even was coming out of college, just that the optics are similar. The big difference I'm seeing between the two is that Springer, coming out of UConn, attacked the zone a lot harder than Hays seems to, which gave him major power but also added some swing-and-miss to his game. Hays has similar swing mechanics, but his swing is less forceful, which means that when he's able to drive the ball, it doesn't go as far, but also allows him to make more consistent contact. He seems to have good speed, so if he shows that he can really turn on some pitches, the Orioles might have a good one here.

[bobmc]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OF Austin Hays. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a> 3rd round pick out of Jacksonville Univ, expected to take physical Friday in Baltimore. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a></p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">June 14, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Can_of_corn]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OF Austin Hays. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a> 3rd round pick out of Jacksonville Univ, expected to take physical Friday in Baltimore. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a></p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">June 14, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sweet, nothing can go wrong now.

[Tony-OH]

Not to single you out, but this comes up every year: this is not a good way of analyzing draft picks. Past the top 20 or so, there is no real reason to pay attention to third-party ranking numbers. The words that are written about the players, sure, but this isn't the NFL draft. Calling a second- or third-round pick a "reach" based on BA or MLB's lists is silly. There are more than 30 different player rankings compiled each year, and we only get to see two. We have no idea what the "consensus" is, because it's formed primarily by the 30 lists we don't get to see. Hays, for example, is a "steal" by BA's list, but a "reach" by MLB's. In 2011, Jason Esposito was a "steal" while Mike Wright was a "reach." In 2013, Josh Hart was taken right where the rankings had him, while Chance Sisco was taken two rounds too early.

What I'm trying to say is this: make up your own mind. Learn to scout. Watch videos of guys, and talk about what you see. It's not that hard, and if you end up being way wrong, so what? Even the best in the business are wrong all the time.

Great post and right on point.

[bobmc]

Sweet, nothing can go wrong now.

Hot buttered soul....

[OFFNY]

o

Hearing from Hays, Following the Amateur Draft

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/06/hearing-from-hays-following-amateur-draft.html

[OsEatAlEast]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cZIdBsCx6QU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Admittedly it's a small sample size. But in the video it looks like Hays has roughly 4.0 speed to first after contact. On the double he makes it to second in just over 7 seconds. I would have timed it better but I don't have a stop watch handy.

[weams]

I got 4.13

[OsEatAlEast]

I got 4.13

Thanks weams! I was tempted to dig out my stopwatch.

Didn't it seem like he pulled up just before getting to 1st each time though?

[Frobby]

Hays had three hits including a triple in his Aberdeen debut. His manager had very good things to say: http://m.masn.mobi/steve-melewski/2016/06/os-third-round-pick-has-strong-debut-plus-other-notes.html

[MachoMachadoMan]

2-4 with a double and 2 stolen bases, swiping both second and third after his single. Great start for Hays.

[OsEatAlEast]

Hays had three hits including a triple in his Aberdeen debut. His manager had very good things to say: http://m.masn.mobi/steve-melewski/2016/06/os-third-round-pick-has-strong-debut-plus-other-notes.html

Thanks for posting this. Good to see he is getting good reviews on his work ethic.