Mancini talk, 2017

[TINSTAAPP]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, he'll be on the team next year.  I just think it's reasonable to wonder if he can sustain what he's doing right now a year from now.  

My concern is his sky-high strikeout to walk rate. Mancini currently strikes out 4.5 times more than he walks. The only current player with a strikeout to walk rate that high who's been able to sustain success is Starling Marte who was recently busted for PEDs. There have been other players with similar strikeout to walk rate issues who had great starts to their careers such as Jeff Francoeur, Will Middlebrooks and Yan Gomes and none of them were able to keep it up. . 

[ReclaimTheCrown]

1 hour ago, TINSTAAPP said:

My concern is his sky-high strikeout to walk rate. Mancini currently strikes out 4.5 times more than he walks. The only current player with a strikeout to walk rate that high who's been able to sustain success is Starling Marte who was recently busted for PEDs. There have been other players with similar strikeout to walk rate issues who had great starts to their careers such as Jeff Francoeur, Will Middlebrooks and Yan Gomes and none of them were able to keep it up. . 

Maybe I'm doing this wrong, but Jon Schoop has 400 careers K's and 61 career walks, giving him a much higher rate (closer to 6). Obviously he's been better this year, but it's still just under 4. Even that, though, indicates an ability to improve over time in that regard (though we'll see if Jon can sustain that improvement).

Another pretty good candidate is Jones, who is at just over 4.2 over his long career. Not quite as high as Trey's so far, but not in another universe.

I'd additionally argue that the sample size is too small to be a big concern.

I take the point and appreciate you pulling up those stats, but not sure I'm sweating it just yet.

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

By watching his approach at the plate, I don't see why he wouldn't sustain what he's doing. He's done it at every level thus far.

I don't know, I remember a time where I thought Larry Bigbie and Luis Matos would lead us to championships.

[weams]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know, I remember a time where I thought Larry Bigbie and Luis Matos would lead us to championships.

Matos especially. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, he'll be on the team next year.  I just think it's reasonable to wonder if he can sustain what he's doing right now a year from now.  

.948 OPS?   Probably not.    But even at .848, that's a really valuable player.     And that seems possible.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know, I remember a time where I thought Larry Bigbie and Luis Matos would lead us to championships.

I never, ever thought that.    But I certainly had hopes that they'd be decent ballplayers.    

[Ohfan67]

8 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

My concern is his sky-high strikeout to walk rate. Mancini currently strikes out 4.5 times more than he walks. The only current player with a strikeout to walk rate that high who's been able to sustain success is Starling Marte who was recently busted for PEDs. There have been other players with similar strikeout to walk rate issues who had great starts to their careers such as Jeff Francoeur, Will Middlebrooks and Yan Gomes and none of them were able to keep it up. . 

Thanks for sharing this TINSTAAPP. Mancini's ratio is really low, but there are different way to look at walks and it seems like K:BB or more usually BB:K is far less informative than other measures. For example, Mancini's actual walk rate is 6.8 (BB/PA). Not great at all, but definitely within the range of successful hitters. Ryan Zimmerman's 2017 walk rate is 6.5%. Walk rate/percentage seems to be way more informative than the ratio of K to BB (based on a quick reading of some saber metric stuff). Adam Jones' walk rate is around 4.5. and his BB:K ratio is a little lower than Mancini's, for comparison sake.

 

p.s. I think this year in baseball is another example of K's being less and less relevant in most judgements of a hitter. 

[MDK02]

If it wasn't for Judge, I think Mancini could have a real shot at AL ROTY. His fielding is a lot better than I expected. Hey Chris Davis, take your time. 

[SteveA]

Last Oriole rookie to have 13 HRs before the All Star Break:. Eddie Murray in 1977

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The great hitters use the whole field.   Mancini does it.   Machado does it.    Castillo does it.     That doesn't make each of them great hitters.   They just have the best hitting approach.      Most of the other Orioles hitters just flirt with the concept.

You forgot Schoop, Jones and Trumbo.  Of late they are using the bigger part of the field and hits have started to fall in.

[TINSTAAPP]

11 hours ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Maybe I'm doing this wrong, but Jon Schoop has 400 careers K's and 61 career walks, giving him a much higher rate (closer to 6). Obviously he's been better this year, but it's still just under 4. Even that, though, indicates an ability to improve over time in that regard (though we'll see if Jon can sustain that improvement).

Another pretty good candidate is Jones, who is at just over 4.2 over his long career. Not quite as high as Trey's so far, but not in another universe.

I'd additionally argue that the sample size is too small to be a big concern.

I take the point and appreciate you pulling up those stats, but not sure I'm sweating it just yet.

Well, the difference between the two is their age and strikeout rate. Schoop is still only five months older than Mancini. He had a really high strikeout rate early on because he was rushed to the big leagues and wasn't ready for ML pitching. His strikeout rate last year when he was the same age that Mancini is right now was 21.2%. That's a heck of a lot better than the 27% strikeout rate Mancini has right now. And the highest strikeout rate Adam Jones has had was 21.0% during his rookie year. Since that season, he's never had a strikeout rate above 20.0%. Neither player walks a lot but their strikeout rate when they were mature offensive players wasn't terrible. A 27.0% strikeout rate is just not good especially when you combine that with a 6.0% walk percentage. 

[sportsfan8703]

The guy should be an AS.  He's about a week's worth of PA's away for qualifying for the batting title.  Right now he'd rank 5th in AVG. and 6th in OPS in the AL.  

[OFFNY]

On 9/18/2016 at 11:16 AM, weams said:

 

(The OP, September of 2016)

Mancini has a locker.

He has not been activated yet, as there needs to be a 40-man move.

 

o

 

Mancini appears to be determined to keep that Major League locker.

 

o

[pastorfan]

39 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The guy should be an AS.  He's about a week's worth of PA's away for qualifying for the batting title.  Right now he'd rank 5th in AVG. and 6th in OPS in the AL.  

Come on! He stinks and should not even be in the majors, this is why we spent big time to keep Davis.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Come on! He stinks and should not even be in the majors, this is why we spent big time to keep Davis.

Honestly, even though Mancini was very good in AA in 2015, I wouldn't have expected management to consider Mancini a big factor in the decision about whether to keep Davis.