One Man's Observations

[Answerman]

Spent last week in Sarasota and got to see a couple games at Ed Smith and a couple in Bradenton. What follows are my observations. I don't claim to be a scout. These are in no particular order. My conclusions are at the end.

Outfield - Rickard was the best player on the field. Second place wasn't close. He hit the ball hard. Worked the pitchers. Got on base. Even laid down a beautiful two-out bunt to drive in a run. I don't think he'll ever win a gold glove. I think he can catch just fine, but the arm is questionable for both strength and accuracy. Overall, he was very productive.

Santander looks the part. He is thick. Unfortunately, looked lost at the plate. I don't see him being much help this year. Tavarez is closer, and very fast. I could possibly see him as a fifth outfielder. Was hoping he would be a better defender. Not terrible, just not as outstanding as he might need to be to make this team.

Mancini looked fine in right field. Not really challenged when I saw him. But really good with the bat. He could hit 25 HRs this year as a full-time player, but I'm not sure that is enough to keep him on the roster since nearly every guy in our lineup can do that. I think he will put up sick numbers at Norfolk this year. Maybe his greatest value for us is in a trade.

Trumbo was disappointing at the plate, but it was a pretty small sample size. Maybe two at bats in each of the home games and the starters don't typically travel. Kim was decent. As expected. Gentry was better than I expected.

Infield - Much of our starting infield was at the World Baseball Classic. Chris Johnson is a big dude. He looked defensively and hit the ball with authority when he made contact. I hope he stays with the organization if/when sent to Norfolk. If we had a serious injury to Manny, I think he would be a better long-term option than Flaherty. Coyle was very good in a small sample. I suspect he is destined for Bowie, but don't be surprised if they release Andino and put Coyle at Norfolk. Davis was irrelevant. Janish was the second best player on this particular week. Clearly a professional. Solid in the field and smart at the plate. Not a great hitter, but at least he has a plan. Understands situational hitting, etc. Makes contact. Does nothing great, but everything well. I can see why they like having him in the organization. He had a very good week. Even hit a home run.

Catcher - Joseph did nothing to make me think he could be a long-term replacement if needed. Perez and Pena were good backups. Sisco really didn't impress with the bat or glove. I was hoping to be blown away, but not at the games I attended. He clearly needs more time. Looks the part. Seems athletic enough to grow into a good catcher. Not yet. Really hoping Castillo is noticeably better than the rest of these guys. Kinda wishing we kept Weiters.

Starting Pitchers - Ubaldo was the same. Miley got lit up. Chris Lee, however, looked good. I definitely am more confident in his ability to keep us in a game than anybody not named Bundy or Gausman. I look forward to seeing how he does tonight. Ynoa looked decent. Would like to see more of him. Tyler Wilson...just not feeling it. Would have liked to have seen Sedlock. Didn't happen.

Relief Pitchers - Britton, O'Day and Brach will be fine. Drake was up and down. Flashes brilliant, then serves one up. Hart looked great, though I don't think he ever reached more than 89 mph. Not sure how he does it, but he just gets guys out. They were clearly fooled by whatever he was doing. Liranzo has nice potential, but needs more time. Meisinger could be a prospect. Will look forward to seeing his progress this year. Crichton was actually pretty good.

Conclusions - Same old O's. I think we will hit for power and be one of the higher scoring teams. I think our bullpen will be very good. Starting pitching is scary. Gausman looks like a Cy Young candidate. Bundy has had a rough spring, however I really liked what we saw in him last year and I think he will be very good this year. After those two, I'm extremely concerned. I would like for Lee to have an opportunity to pitch in Tillman's absence instead of Wright or Wilson. For that matter, I'd probably rather see Ynoa too. I think our AAAA guys may be better than years past, and Norfolk could be a fun team if Cisco and Mancini are there with a few of the more interesting pitching propsects.

I think we will be competitive, for a while, but I will be pleasantly surprised if we are still in the hunt come September.

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, Answerman said:

Spent last week in Sarasota and got to see a couple games at Ed Smith and a couple in Bradenton. What follows are my observations. I don't claim to be a scout. These are in no particular order. My conclusions are at the end.

Outfield - Rickard was the best player on the field. Second place wasn't close. He hit the ball hard. Worked the pitchers. Got on base. Even laid down a beautiful two-out bunt to drive in a run. I don't think he'll ever win a gold glove. I think he can catch just fine, but the arm is questionable for both strength and accuracy. Overall, he was very productive.

Santander looks the part. He is thick. Unfortunately, looked lost at the plate. I don't see him being much help this year. Tavarez is closer, and very fast. I could possibly see him as a fifth outfielder. Was hoping he would be a better defender. Not terrible, just not as outstanding as he might need to be to make this team.

Mancini looked fine in right field. Not really challenged when I saw him. But really good with the bat. He could hit 25 HRs this year as a full-time player, but I'm not sure that is enough to keep him on the roster since nearly every guy in our lineup can do that. I think he will put up sick numbers at Norfolk this year. Maybe his greatest value for us is in a trade.

Trumbo was disappointing at the plate, but it was a pretty small sample size. Maybe two at bats in each of the home games and the starters don't typically travel. Kim was decent. As expected. Gentry was better than I expected.

Infield - Much of our starting infield was at the World Baseball Classic. Chris Johnson is a big dude. He looked defensively and hit the ball with authority when he made contact. I hope he stays with the organization if/when sent to Norfolk. If we had a serious injury to Manny, I think he would be a better long-term option than Flaherty. Coyle was very good in a small sample. I suspect he is destined for Bowie, but don't be surprised if they release Andino and put Coyle at Norfolk. Davis was irrelevant. Janish was the second best player on this particular week. Clearly a professional. Solid in the field and smart at the plate. Not a great hitter, but at least he has a plan. Understands situational hitting, etc. Makes contact. Does nothing great, but everything well. I can see why they like having him in the organization. He had a very good week. Even hit a home run.

Catcher - Joseph did nothing to make me think he could be a long-term replacement if needed. Perez and Pena were good backups. Sisco really didn't impress with the bat or glove. I was hoping to be blown away, but not at the games I attended. He clearly needs more time. Looks the part. Seems athletic enough to grow into a good catcher. Not yet. Really hoping Castillo is noticeably better than the rest of these guys. Kinda wishing we kept Weiters.

Starting Pitchers - Ubaldo was the same. Miley got lit up. Chris Lee, however, looked good. I definitely am more confident in his ability to keep us in a game than anybody not named Bundy or Gausman. I look forward to seeing how he does tonight. Ynoa looked decent. Would like to see more of him. Tyler Wilson...just not feeling it. Would have liked to have seen Sedlock. Didn't happen.

Relief Pitchers - Britton, O'Day and Brach will be fine. Drake was up and down. Flashes brilliant, then serves one up. Hart looked great, though I don't think he ever reached more than 89 mph. Not sure how he does it, but he just gets guys out. They were clearly fooled by whatever he was doing. Liranzo has nice potential, but needs more time. Meisinger could be a prospect. Will look forward to seeing his progress this year. Crichton was actually pretty good.

Conclusions - Same old O's. I think we will hit for power and be one of the higher scoring teams. I think our bullpen will be very good. Starting pitching is scary. Gausman looks like a Cy Young candidate. Bundy has had a rough spring, however I really liked what we saw in him last year and I think he will be very good this year. After those two, I'm extremely concerned. I would like for Lee to have an opportunity to pitch in Tillman's absence instead of Wright or Wilson. For that matter, I'd probably rather see Ynoa too. I think our AAAA guys may be better than years past, and Norfolk could be a fun team if Cisco and Mancini are there with a few of the more interesting pitching propsects.

I think we will be competitive, for a while, but I will be pleasantly surprised if we are still in the hunt come September.

Thanks for the report.  I enjoyed reading it.

I am a little confused about the conclusion.  You say same old O's.  Power and be one of the higher scoring teams.  But the O's were middle of the pack in scoring last year.  Do you think they will score more this year?

You say same old O's but say Rickard was one of the best you saw and Gentry is better than expected. Tavarez is fast.   Sounds like more speed than what the O's had last year.

I get that the starters are why you will be surprised is the O's are in  it in September.  Thanks for the poster.  Greatly appreciated to hear from someone that actually saw 4 games in person.

[Answerman]

Thanks for the feedback, Wildcard. I say same old O's primarily because they are still built on power and bullpen. They still lack starting pitching, on base percentage and small ball. In all fairness, this model has made them the most winning team of the past five years (I believe), but no rings yet.

Keep in mind, a handful of our best players were not around. So Rickard standing out against mostly AAAA guys and prospects isn't all that surprising. Tavarez and Gentry, while good players and with speed, might not be part of the team after final cuts.

[Frobby]

I wasn't as impressed by Lee as you were.  

[ChuckS]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wasn't as impressed by Lee as you were.  

I wasn't impressed by Lee tonight.  

Decent sinking fastball.  Shaky command.  Shaky secondaries. 

I can't really tell the difference between his slider and changeup.  That's not a good thing.  They both kind of just float in there.  

[Rene88]

Thanks for taking the time to write up your report.

[Answerman]

Yeah...I just posted it shortly before the start of last night's game. I was in a school board meeting trying to read the game thread. Every time he gave up another baserunner (and there were plenty) I thought "oh boy, the Hangouters will give me grief regarding my thoughts about Lee."

Sounds like he was pretty bad last night. I would have liked for him to pitch one more inning just to see if he could pull himself together. Truth be told, I think I still feel a little better about him starting over Wilson or Wright.

Our rotation is in real trouble.

At least Cisco proved me wrong last night. Anyone see how he looked defensively?

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Answerman said:

Yeah...I just posted it shortly before the start of last night's game. I was in a school board meeting trying to read the game thread. Every time he gave up another baserunner (and there were plenty) I thought "oh boy, the Hangouters will give me grief regarding my thoughts about Lee."

Sounds like he was pretty bad last night. I would have liked for him to pitch one more inning just to see if he could pull himself together. Truth be told, I think I still feel a little better about him starting over Wilson or Wright.

Our rotation is in real trouble.

At least Cisco proved me wrong last night. Anyone see how he looked defensively?

I agree...Jimenez and Miley are terrible, Tillman is hurt and we have no quality depth, and it's riding on a couple of young guys that have yet to prove themselves (but on the path to being pitchers you can count on).

 

I hate to say it but I don't know if this is a contending team because of this rotation.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, dan-O said:

I don't think Ubaldo is going to be nearly as bad as people think. I'm picturing a 4.30 ERA or something like that. Like what I've seen from him this spring save a couple bad innings here and there. Miley on the other hand, I just don't know about that guy. 

That's a pattern with Ubaldo.  He'll melt down one inning, which is enough to put his team in a poor position.  I don't care if he pitches five good innings if at the end of the day he goes 6 IP with 5ER.

[oriole]

18 minutes ago, dan-O said:

I don't think Ubaldo is going to be nearly as bad as people think. I'm picturing a 4.30 ERA or something like that. Like what I've seen from him this spring save a couple bad innings here and there. Miley on the other hand, I just don't know about that guy. 

Too many walks...that's been an issue his entire time in Baltimore and this spring has done nothing to make me believe he will be any better. I expect a 5 or above ERA.

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, dan-O said:

He's only had an ERA above 5 in one year since being here. He was 4.11 in 2015. I don't think a 4.30 is unreasonable seeing as he made some positive mechanical changes late last season.

I promise I try to be an optimist lol obviously that isn't always the case

Until I see some results from him, he is a detrimental piece of a flawed rotation. Miley as well but I think Miley has a shorter leash. I expect to see Jimenez in the rotation until the all star break regardless of performance. I just hope Gausman and Bundy can be lights out to help balance this into at least a league average rotation.

[oriole]

16 minutes ago, dan-O said:

Not saying he won't be frustrating at times. It's Ubaldo. I'm just more worried about Miley and Tillman's replacement than I am Ubaldo right now.

Fair enough, they are also a legitimate concern. It's going to be hard for offense to rise above the pitching. I hope I'm wrong.

 

I guess the positive here is that Gallardo is gone and I have more hope in whoever Tillmans replacement will be than I would have likely had in Gallardo.

[Frobby]

I think Ubaldo will have a decent year.    He seems happier with his mechanics.    But who knows?    There are huge question marks with our rotation and we'll see how the answers emerge as the season proceeds.   

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, oriole said:

I promise I try to be an optimist lol obviously that isn't always the case

Until I see some results from him, he is a detrimental piece of a flawed rotation. Miley as well but I think Miley has a shorter leash. I expect to see Jimenez in the rotation until the all star break regardless of performance. I just hope Gausman and Bundy can be lights out to help balance this into at least a league average rotation.

I think Miley is on a very long leash.  1) He is being paid almost 9M,  2) He has a history of making 30 starts. 3) The O's don't have anyone better.

[oriole]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Miley is on a very long leash.  1) He is being paid almost 9M,  2) He has a history of making 30 starts. 3) The O's don't have anyone better.

It's debatable whether they have anyone better. Miley has been pretty horrible and Buck has always seemed to like Ubaldo. One might say anyone at Norfolk will put up similar numbers to Miley...not necessarily saying I believe that but it's a worthy argument to be had.