The Official JJ Hardy PA update thread

[Aglets]

JJ Hardy has a vesting option in his contract that will trigger for 2018 if he reaches 600 PA this year.  The extra year would cost us $14M (the same amount he's making right now). 

So far through about 1/3 of the season Hardy has been worth about -0.6 WAR............and has............exactly 200 PA.  So it could get real close.

This is going to be very interesting to follow imo, especially if he continues to be healthy.   It's clear to me what the O's want to do here but they have to tread carefully.

[webbrick2010]

He still has to beat out Escobar as the worst offensive SS in majors, but he is secure in being the third highest paid SS in the majors. Hardy should thank his agent and the DD lifetime achievement award contract every single day

[SteveA]

14 minutes ago, Aglets said:

JJ Hardy has a vesting option in his contract that will trigger for 2018 if he reaches 600 PA this year.  The extra year would cost us $14M (the same amount he's making right now). 

So far through about 1/3 of the season Hardy has been worth about -0.6 WAR............and has............exactly 200 PA.  So it could get real close.

This is going to be very interesting to follow imo, especially if he continues to be healthy.   It's clear to me what the O's want to do here but they have to tread carefully.

We're slightly more than 1/3 of the way through, so he's actually on a pace for 578 PAs.

He tends to get injured fairly frequently.

He bats very low in the order.  

We are among the major league leaders in # of extra innings played, that will also probably regress to the mean a bit, creating fewer opportunities.

We just improved ourselves significantly at the backup infield position; for the first time in many years we have a semi-legitimate major league hitter there and I expect (hope?) he will get some starts at short.

I think it is really unlikely that he could get to 600.   If he did it would be very, very late.   Probably the last day of the season.   It's likely we would either have clinched a playoff position or been eliminated by the last day of the season so there would be no baseball need to start "your best player" at SS, if he is even that by the end of the year.

Put that all together and I think it's incredibly unlikely he will get to 600.   If he does, it would probably mean he has magically returned to hitting like he did in the early part of his career.  It's hard to imagine that happening, but baseball is always full of surprises.

 

 

[esmd]

See, this is where I think stats like WAR are flawed.  Hardy's offense is bad, obviously (although IMO, he still is a pretty decent "clutch" hitter), but his defense makes up for it.  I realize WAR is designed to take defense into account, but we've seen how much the play of our infield defense falls off when Hardy is not out there.  He just seems to stabilize the entire infield defense.  To say he's worse than replacement level isn't something that I'd agree with.

[Frobby]

I think you want to set things up so that even if Hardy played every day in September, he'd fall short of 600 PA.   

So far, Hardy has started 51 games and has averaged 3.90 PA/start (he had one PA as a sub).    At that pace, he'd need to start 154 games to reach 600 PA.    The most he can start is 157, since he already hasn't started in 5 games.    So, if he's rested another 4-5 times in the next two months, it will be basically impossible for him to reach 600 PA.    If I'm Buck, Hardy will sit a game every other week over that span (at least), and then the issue will basically be moot.    That's pretty much what Buck has been doing so far, and with the addition of Tejada, it becomes even a little easier to do this.

Meanwhile, I keep hoping that Hardy's offense will pick up some, as it did last year as the year went along.   His defense has been very solid of late.

[esmd]

That said, I definitely agree we don't want him hitting 600 PAs and vesting the option.  Better to decline it, pay him the $2 million buyout, bring him back on a cheaper deal (1 year, 6 million?), or else seek out a suitable replacement via trade or FA.  If Hardy comes back on a cheaper deal, they're still saving a good chunk of change.

[wildcard]

At 34, Buck tries not be play Hardy day games after night games  And when the O's are in a 20 consecutive game period  like they are beginning right now Hardy will probably get a few days off. That is probably why they added Tejada.  I don't think  the O's plan is for Hardy to get 600 PAs.

[Babypowder]

6 minutes ago, esmd said:

See, this is where I think stats like WAR are flawed.  Hardy's offense is bad, obviously (although IMO, he still is a pretty decent "clutch" hitter), but his defense makes up for it.  I realize WAR is designed to take defense into account, but we've seen how much the play of our infield defense falls off when Hardy is not out there.  He just seems to stabilize the entire infield defense.  To say he's worse than replacement level isn't something that I'd agree with.

It's not just bad. He's the second worst qualified hitter in major league baseball right now. No amount of defense can make up for that, and his defense has fallen off a bit too. The metrics have him as averagish right now.

[Camden_yardbird]

I really like Hardy, really believe his presence has a lot to do with the culture of this team changing in the last 5 years.  With that said, I don't want to see that option vest, and would be more than happy to see the Orioles begin to transition to younger players at the SS position.

[esmd]

12 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

It's not just bad. He's the second worst qualified hitter in major league baseball right now. No amount of defense can make up for that, and his defense has fallen off a bit too. The metrics have him as averagish right now.

No argument on his plate performance, although wasn't he hitting .180 about 2-3 weeks ago?  He's at .205 now, so at least he's trending up, lol.  Defensively, he had a rough couple of games a month ago, but he seems to have righted the ship, so to speak.  I have no doubts that his range isn't what it once was.

Like I said, I'd consider bringing him back on a 1yr deal at a reduced salary next season, if only because the rest of the infield is liable to be in flux if Machado is dealt, Schoop possibly moves to 3rd, etc.  Him anchoring the IF for a transition season to get 3B and 2B resettled might not be a bad thing.

[Babypowder]

9 minutes ago, esmd said:

No argument on his plate performance, although wasn't he hitting .180 about 2-3 weeks ago?  He's at .205 now, so at least he's trending up, lol.  Defensively, he had a rough couple of games a month ago, but he seems to have righted the ship, so to speak.  I have no doubts that his range isn't what it once was.

Like I said, I'd consider bringing him back on a 1yr deal at a reduced salary next season, if only because the rest of the infield is liable to be in flux if Machado is dealt, Schoop possibly moves to 3rd, etc.  Him anchoring the IF for a transition season to get 3B and 2B resettled might not be a bad thing.

If he continues playing like this the rest of the year, I wouldn't want him back for free.

[maybenxtyr]

4 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

If he continues playing like this the rest of the year, I wouldn't want him back for free.

Exactly. There isn't any circumstance where I would want JJ at SS next season. I've enjoyed most of his time here but he appears to be done as a ML caliber starter.

[Aristotelian]

If we don't bring back JJ, the question is how do we replace him. From what I have seen, Manny is a much better 3B than SS. Even if Manny slides over, we have nobody to play 3B. I kind of like the idea to keep him to 598 ABs this year, pay the $2M, then bring him back on a cheap 1 year deal. But it is quite possible that Buck will do JJ a solid and make sure the option vests.

[webbrick2010]

9 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

If he continues playing like this the rest of the year, I wouldn't want him back for free.

Come on... you don't want to give him a second lifetime achievement contract. Let's keep pretending that he is, and paying for the 29 yo JJ Hardy. Maybe he has dirt on DD or PA, lol.

[Larry18]

I don't think Hardy would qualify as a clutch performer at this point.