"We could trade pick number 74..."

[webbrick2010]

Why the urgency in trading Ubaldo given how shaky Tillman, Gausman, and now Miley have looked?

and Ubaldo IS better than Edwin Jackson

[Otter]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that's changing the subject.   

The real question is what's the likely value of the no. 74 pick, and what's the value of what you're getting in return.    Based on this study, it looks like the pick is worth maybe $2.5-3.0 mm: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

So, if you can get salary relief in excess of that for the pick, it makes sense to do it.

The Orioles employ an economist and I assume one of the things he does is analyses like the one I linked to, only more sophisticated.   

I understand what you're saying, and you're probably right about how the organization views these tradeable picks.  However, I would personally prefer a good prospect that you could find in the 2nd round than $2-3 million dollars.  $3 million dollars to a major league franchise is a drop in the bucket, while the potential upside of a prospect seems to me to be more valuable than a small amount of salary relief.  I also don't buy the excuse that the O's need salary relief this badly if they can throw around Monopoly money to Davis.  I do understand that many 2nd round picks never even make the majors, but for a team with a thin farm system we need all the draft picks we can get.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Otter said:

I understand what you're saying, and you're probably right about how the organization views these tradeable picks.  However, I would personally prefer a good prospect that you could find in the 2nd round than $2-3 million dollars.  $3 million dollars to a major league franchise is a drop in the bucket, while the potential upside of a prospect seems to me to be more valuable than a small amount of salary relief.  I also don't buy the excuse that the O's need salary relief this badly if they can throw around Monopoly money to Davis.  I do understand that many 2nd round picks never even make the majors, but for a team with a thin farm system we need all the draft picks we can get.

For sake of argument, let's assume that for $2.5 mm, you can get 10 guys of the Gabriel Ynoa/Alec Asher/Miguel Castro variety.     Would you rather have the no. 74 pick, or ten of those guys?    (By the way, I have no idea what those guys actually cost .)

[osfan83]

Oriole's 2nd round picks since 2006

Keegan Akin  2016

Matthias Dietz 2016

Jonathan Hughes 2015

none 2014

Chance Sisco 2013

Josh Hart  CBA 2013

Brandon Kline 2012

Jason Esposito 2011

None 2010

Mychal Givens 2009

Xavier Avery 2008

None 2007

Pedro Beato CB 2006

 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For sake of argument, let's assume that for $2.5 mm, you can get 10 guys of the Gabriel Ynoa/Alec Asher/Miguel Castro variety.     Would you rather have the no. 74 pick, or ten of those guys?    (By the way, I have no idea what those guys actually cost .)

Part of the reason those guys are only 250K each (for arguments sake) is because they also cost a slot on the 40 man.  You can't stockpile them ten at a time.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, osfan83 said:

Oriole's 2nd round picks since 2006

Keegan Akin  2016

Matthias Dietz 2016

Jonathan Hughes 2015

none 2014

Chance Sisco 2013

Josh Hart  CBA 2013

Brandon Kline 2012

Jason Esposito 2011

None 2010

Mychal Givens 2009

Xavier Avery 2008

None 2007

Pedro Beato CB 2006

 

Can you please explain your point?

[osfan83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can you please explain your point?

No real point, just providing info on what the O's have done with second round picks over the past 10 drafts. 

[Otter]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For sake of argument, let's assume that for $2.5 mm, you can get 10 guys of the Gabriel Ynoa/Alec Asher/Miguel Castro variety.     Would you rather have the no. 74 pick, or ten of those guys?    (By the way, I have no idea what those guys actually cost .)

I see what you're saying, but my point is that it shouldn't be mutually exclusive.  There's no reason we can't keep our comp balance picks and still sign the Asher/Castro/Ynoa types for a couple million each year.  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Oriole's 2nd round picks since 2006

Keegan Akin  2016

Matthias Dietz 2016

Jonathan Hughes 2015

none 2014

Chance Sisco 2013

Josh Hart  CBA 2013

Brandon Kline 2012

Jason Esposito 2011

None 2010

Mychal Givens 2009

Xavier Avery 2008

None 2007

Pedro Beato CB 2006

 

Most or all of these guys were picked well ahead of pick no. 74, which comes after the "regular" second round.    Givens, for example, was the 54th pick.    Dietz, who was our comp pick last year, was chosen 69th.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Otter said:

I see what you're saying, but my point is that it shouldn't be mutually exclusive.  There's no reason we can't keep our comp balance picks and still sign the Asher/Castro/Ynoa types for a couple million each year.  

There is when you have to pay Davis and Trumbo. (and Hardy and Ubaldo)

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think that's changing the subject.   

The real question is what's the likely value of the no. 74 pick, and what's the value of what you're getting in return.    Based on this study, it looks like the pick is worth maybe $2.5-3.0 mm: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

So, if you can get salary relief in excess of that for the pick, it makes sense to do it.

The Orioles employ an economist and I assume one of the things he does is analyses like the one I linked to, only more sophisticated.   

Yes. They do. 

[billw76]

3 hours ago, weams said:

So you are fine with the Orioles sitting out the trade deadline then? Even if still near the top of the division? How much more than the most the Orioles have ever spent do you think they will go? 

I'm absolutely fine sitting out the trade deadline, it's a sellers market and always requires a massive over pay. We don't have the prospects it would take to land a player that would be a major upgrade, and the draft pick probably won't get us anything major either.

I'm not expecting the FO to spend a ton of money at the deadline, but I would like to see better moves than what have been made at the deadline in the past. Ubaldos contract expires at the end of the season, and I can't see how that should financially burden the team so much at the deadline that it couldn't make a move, if anything the $115 million owed to Davis should be seen as a much bigger burden, and thats the contract I'd be looking to dump.

[billw76]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is when you have to pay Davis and Trumbo. (and Hardy and Ubaldo)

Ubaldo will definitely be off the books next season and Hardy can be too. I like Hardy but if they choose to pay him $14mil over a $2mil buyout I'll have no faith in the FO. I understand thats not this season but I don't think the current payroll will matter at the deadline because I don't see us adding anything financially significant.

[weams]

39 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I'm absolutely fine sitting out the trade deadline, it's a sellers market and always requires a massive over pay. We don't have the prospects it would take to land a player that would be a major upgrade, and the draft pick probably won't get us anything major either.

I'm not expecting the FO to spend a ton of money at the deadline, but I would like to see better moves than what have been made at the deadline in the past. Ubaldos contract expires at the end of the season, and I can't see how that should financially burden the team so much at the deadline that it couldn't make a move, if anything the $115 million owed to Davis should be seen as a much bigger burden, and thats the contract I'd be looking to dump.

I was talking about participating in the acquisition of one of those salary dump players. I am glad to understand your viewpoint. The last part of what you spoke of is not rational.

[billw76]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

I was talking about participating in the acquisition of one of those salary dump players. I am glad to understand your viewpoint. The last part of what you spoke of is not rational.

If the Orioles had the opportunity to acquire a dump to receive the 74th pick I'd probably be ok with it, especially if the contract was up at the end of the season. I guess I place a little higher value on draft picks and the farm than some.