2019 Season

[spiritof66]

I expect to be tracking five things about the Orioles’ season, pretty much in this order:

 1.    Whether the Orioles put a significant amount of money where their mouths have been recently, on spending long-underfed areas of their operation -- developing and using analytics, scouting, signing and developing international talent, and building up their scouting capability generally – and that knowledgeable observers say that they’re spending that money wisely and on high-quality personnel.
2.    The number of Orioles players who demonstrate, at the major-league level, their ability to be contributing members of a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
3.    The number of players in the Orioles' MiL system – including 2019 draftees and international signees – who look like good bets to contribute to a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
4.    The Orioles’ ability to maintain, through clever marketing, trickery or witchcraft, a chunk of their fan base, and to sell tickets to customers, especially younger ones, to watch and root for a losing team with no marquee players.
5.    How many games the team wins.

I may not have the discipline to stick with this. I suspect, and I guess also hope, there will be moments when it seems like holding on to a lead or coming back to win a close game (especially one against the NYYs) will be the only thing that matters.

And I recognize that it’s likely to be hard to tell whether the Orioles really are making the significant and wise investments that I mentioned as my highest priority, much less how those investments compare in dollars or effectiveness to that of other ML teams. I can hope the media will pursue the Orioles’ efforts to live up to those commitments – just like I can hope that by the All-Star break Chris Davis has 20 bunt hits to go with his 25 HRs and becomes a sought-after trade commodity.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, connja said:

70 Wins this season.  We won't be as bad as people think.  Rotation will be decent, and defense will be better.  

Dylan Bundy's #1 bb-ref comp through his current age: Jason Schmidt, who went 13-11, 4.19 with the '99 Pirates at 26. So far, so good.

Andrew Cashner's is Tyson Ross, who is the same age and doesn't help.  His #2 is former O's co-GM Jim Beattie.  Who at age 32 retired.

Alex Cobb's is Pascual Perez, who I can't think of without laughing.  But at age 31 Perez went 12-8 with a 2.44, and managed to go the entire year without getting lost on the interstate on the way to the game.  

I'm not entirely sure who the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th starters will be, and I don't know that anyone else is terribly sure, either.  So even if we manage to get the 2019 versions of Jason Schmidt and Pascual Perez the outlook for the rest of the staff is hazy. At best.  I'll be happy if the starters pitch to an ERA under 5.00, and I don't for a minute think Cobb and Bundy are going to combine to go 25-19 with a 3.25.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

I expect to be tracking five things about the Orioles’ season, pretty much in this order:

 1.    Whether the Orioles put a significant amount of money where their mouths have been recently, on spending long-underfed areas of their operation -- developing and using analytics, scouting, signing and developing international talent, and building up their scouting capability generally – and that knowledgeable observers say that they’re spending that money wisely and on high-quality personnel.
2.    The number of Orioles players who demonstrate, at the major-league level, their ability to be contributing members of a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
3.    The number of players in the Orioles' MiL system – including 2019 draftees and international signees – who look like good bets to contribute to a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
4.    The Orioles’ ability to maintain, through clever marketing, trickery or witchcraft, a chunk of their fan base, and to sell tickets to customers, especially younger ones, to watch and root for a losing team with no marquee players.
5.    How many games the team wins.

I may not have the discipline to stick with this. I suspect, and I guess also hope, there will be moments when it seems like holding on to a lead or coming back to win a close game (especially one against the NYYs) will be the only thing that matters.

And I recognize that it’s likely to be hard to tell whether the Orioles really are making the significant and wise investments that I mentioned as my highest priority, much less how those investments compare in dollars or effectiveness to that of other ML teams. I can hope the media will pursue the Orioles’ efforts to live up to those commitments – just like I can hope that by the All-Star break Chris Davis has 20 bunt hits to go with his 25 HRs and becomes a sought-after trade commodity.

 

 

I believe witchcraft would indeed be required for the bold.  I am willing to supply chickens if necessary in order to do my part.

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, connja said:

70 Wins this season.  We won't be as bad as people think.  Rotation will be decent, and defense will be better.  

You didn't mention offense. The 2018 Orioles scored the fewest runs in the AL and were last or next-to-last in the league in virtually every positive offensive category other than HRs.

Of that juggernaut's top ten top offensive performers (by OPS) with 200 or more ABs, five are gone (Machado, Adam, Valencia, Schoop and Alvarez), one is hurt and will be traded if any team will take on a big chunk of his salary (Trumbo). That leaves Nunez (exactly 200 ABs), Villar, Mancini and Rickard.

DJ Stewart OPSed .890 in just 40 ABs, so I guess right now he's the most likely straw to stir this drink.

And I notice you said the defense will be "better." Though the returnees I just mentioned are not great defenders (with Villar it depends on where he's used), I tend to agree with "better," but that's all -- not "very good" or "solid" or "good" or even "decent."  

That doesn't look like the foundation for a 70-win team to me. 63 (avoiding 100 losses) is a big reach, IMO. 

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I expect to be tracking five things about the Orioles’ season, pretty much in this order:

 1.    Whether the Orioles put a significant amount of money where their mouths have been recently, on spending long-underfed areas of their operation -- developing and using analytics, scouting, signing and developing international talent, and building up their scouting capability generally – and that knowledgeable observers say that they’re spending that money wisely and on high-quality personnel.
2.    The number of Orioles players who demonstrate, at the major-league level, their ability to be contributing members of a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
3.    The number of players in the Orioles' MiL system – including 2019 draftees and international signees – who look like good bets to contribute to a winning team in 2021 and beyond.
4.    The Orioles’ ability to maintain, through clever marketing, trickery or witchcraft, a chunk of their fan base, and to sell tickets to customers, especially younger ones, to watch and root for a losing team with no marquee players.
5.    How many games the team wins.

I may not have the discipline to stick with this. I suspect, and I guess also hope, there will be moments when it seems like holding on to a lead or coming back to win a close game (especially one against the NYYs) will be the only thing that matters.

And I recognize that it’s likely to be hard to tell whether the Orioles really are making the significant and wise investments that I mentioned as my highest priority, much less how those investments compare in dollars or effectiveness to that of other ML teams. I can hope the media will pursue the Orioles’ efforts to live up to those commitments – just like I can hope that by the All-Star break Chris Davis has 20 bunt hits to go with his 25 HRs and becomes a sought-after trade commodity.

 

 

I'm not sure how we'll know if #1 is happening.

I have a feeling that one of the major dynamics on OH this year will be that we will have filler guys at the major league level who obviously aren't the longterm answer, and some guys in the minors performing well, and people will want to see those guys brought up.   But Elias will probably bring them along at a developmental speed that will make a lot of us impatient.   Let's face it, impatience is a key ingredient of being a fan.   EVERY year there's someone who gets off to a terrible start, and by the end of April the posts start "how long can they keep putting him out there?".   Sometimes the guy continues to stink and sometimes we look back at the end of the year and are grateful that management was more patient than we were.

I think that far more guys who will eventually be part of our next winner will make their major league debuts in 2020, as opposed to 2019.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Dylan Bundy's #1 bb-ref comp through his current age: Jason Schmidt, who went 13-11, 4.19 with the '99 Pirates at 26. So far, so good.

Andrew Cashner's is Tyson Ross, who is the same age and doesn't help.  His #2 is former O's co-GM Jim Beattie.  Who at age 32 retired.

Alex Cobb's is Pascual Perez, who I can't think of without laughing.  But at age 31 Perez went 12-8 with a 2.44, and managed to go the entire year without getting lost on the interstate on the way to the game.  

I'm not entirely sure who the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th starters will be, and I don't know that anyone else is terribly sure, either.  So even if we manage to get the 2019 versions of Jason Schmidt and Pascual Perez the outlook for the rest of the staff is hazy. At best.  I'll be happy if the starters pitch to an ERA under 5.00, and I don't for a minute think Cobb and Bundy are going to combine to go 25-19 with a 3.25.

If I was Tyson Ross and you called me Andrew Cashner I'd challenge you to a duel to the death. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If I was Tyson Ross and you called me Andrew Cashner I'd challenge you to a duel to the death. 

Maybe it’s the 2012 version of Ross that put up a 6.50 ERA. That is a good comp for Cashner.

[Philip]

What’s the WAR difference between the trash we threw out there last season and what we project for this season? Everyone except Villar(?) was below zero in overall WAR( Manny was traded so doesn’t count) so if we moved Mancini to DH/1B, that’s going from ~minus 2 to plus one or so, Martin at SS has got to be far superior to Beckham, Nunez/Ruiz is superior to Valencia, Mullins is superior to Jones, and so on. I’m focusing on defense because 1) ours was so bad and it really hurt the pitching and 2) our offense was pretty terrible too, and improving defense will have more impact.

Just removing guys from bad positions and replacing them with even replacement level players would mean an increase of how many wins? 7-8 right there, right?

and Bucks ridiculous daily lineups( Davis 5th because why again?) being replaced with more logical ones should be worth a few wins as well, right?

 I think 60 wins is attainable just because were subtracting so much lunacy from last season. Even getting back to zero would be 60 wins. If any of our possibilities turns into a genuine asset, we might could get to 65-70.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If I was Tyson Ross and you called me Andrew Cashner I'd challenge you to a duel to the death. 

Cashner: Nine years in majors, 46-79, 98 ERA+ in 1046 innings.  Best years 2.55 ERA in 123 innings, 3.40 in 166. Worst 5.29 in 153, and 5.25 in 132. rWAR 8.0.  Played parts of five seasons with the Padres.

Ross: Nine years in majors, 43-65, 95 ERA+ in 869 innings.   2.81 in 195, and 3.17 ni 125.  Worst 7.71 in 49 and 6.50 in 73. rWAR 5.9.  Played parts of five seasons with the Padres.

Are we sure they're not the same person?  Has anyone seen them together?

 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

What’s the WAR difference between the trash we threw out there last season and what we project for this season? Everyone except Villar(?) was below zero in overall WAR( Manny was traded so doesn’t count) so if we moved Mancini to DH/1B, that’s going from ~minus 2 to plus one or so, Martin at SS has got to be far superior to Beckham, Nunez/Ruiz is superior to Valencia, Mullins is superior to Jones, and so on. I’m focusing on defense because 1) ours was so bad and it really hurt the pitching and 2) our offense was pretty terrible too, and improving defense will have more impact.

Just removing guys from bad positions and replacing them with even replacement level players would mean an increase of how many wins? 7-8 right there, right?

and Bucks ridiculous daily lineups( Davis 5th because why again?) being replaced with more logical ones should be worth a few wins as well, right?

 I think 60 wins is attainable just because were subtracting so much lunacy from last season. Even getting back to zero would be 60 wins. If any of our possibilities turns into a genuine asset, we might could get to 65-70.

There is some validity to what you're saying but you may be overstating the impact of defense.  Mancini was graded out as a horrible left fielder last year, but... he's probably not going to play first all the time, and as a DH his positional adjustment will negate from a WAR perspective much of the benefit of him not fielding.  Mullins should be better than Jones with the glove, but will probably not hit as well.  Martin is a question mark, may not be better than Beckham (who was in AAA at Martin's '18 age).  Villar is almost 28 and has a career OPS of .719, he's a push with Schoop's production.

The daily lineup has basically no impact on scoring.  If Davis is in the lineup it really doesn't matter if he's batting 5th or 8th.  Unless someone has a serious mental block about, for example, hitting leadoff, the difference between a nonsense lineup and a perfect lineup is maybe 20 runs a season.  So any two halfway reasonable lineups are so close that you can't tell the difference.

I think they can win 60 or more games, but that will mostly be from better performances out of players like Mancini and Bundy.

[spleen1015]

I'm cool with another season that gets us another #1 pick. Let's give some young guys a chance and see what they can do. If Davis is in the every day lineup and gets over 100 ABs, I'll be disappointed and not watch. If he's hitting under .200 after April, I don't think he should get another AB. Cut him, give him his money and let's be done with him.

[wildbillhiccup]

23 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Cashner: Nine years in majors, 46-79, 98 ERA+ in 1046 innings.  Best years 2.55 ERA in 123 innings, 3.40 in 166. Worst 5.29 in 153, and 5.25 in 132. rWAR 8.0.  Played parts of five seasons with the Padres.

Ross: Nine years in majors, 43-65, 95 ERA+ in 869 innings.   2.81 in 195, and 3.17 ni 125.  Worst 7.71 in 49 and 6.50 in 73. rWAR 5.9.  Played parts of five seasons with the Padres.

Are we sure they're not the same person?  Has anyone seen them together?

 

I hear ya I just think Tyson Ross has a better chance to be a serviceable MLB pitcher. I'm also willing to chalk some of his 2017 struggles up to coming back from shoulder surgery. Cashner might have been serviceable at one point, but that ship has sailed. Even when he was good his strikeout numbers were well below average. It still blows my mind that we let him hold us hostage for a two year deal. It's almost as bad as the Mets giving Jason Vargas a two year deal that same offseason. I also find it interesting that Buck enforced a no facial hair policy, but let Cashner walk out to the mound ever fifth day with that stupid hair cut. 

[wildbillhiccup]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Maybe it’s the 2012 version of Ross that put up a 6.50 ERA. That is a good comp for Cashner.

I'm not saying it an outrageous comp or that I think Tyson Ross is good, I'm just saying that I think Cashner is THAT bad. Ross had some pretty filthy stuff before his should surgery and he seems to have worked his way back to at least mediocrity. I doubt Cashner will ever sniff mediocrity again. 

[interloper]

This season is going to be vaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaastly more interesting to witness than 2018. Game results won't change much, but... think of all the story lines we'll be able to follow other than the utter lost/pointless/bad veterans/lame duck manager & GM thing that happened last year. 

• Entirely new coaching staff to get to know throughout the year
• How does Hyde do in his first year through the grind of the season
• Does Davis improve at all
• Analytics and development and scouting hires throughout the season are likely
• Do we see evidence of data helping anyone
• Technology purchases/upgrades throughout the minor leagues
• Continuing to see how Elias/Sig operate
• Trades likely
• #1 pick in the draft
• Young hungry kids with speed and defensive capabilities

 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm not saying it an outrageous comp or that I think Tyson Ross is good, I'm just saying that I think Cashner is THAT bad. Ross had some pretty filthy stuff before his should surgery and he seems to have worked his way back to at least mediocrity. I doubt Cashner will ever sniff mediocrity again. 

I don’t think Cashner is doomed to be that awful.   He was respectable only two years ago, K rate be damned.    It’s not that big a reach to think he might put together a season in the 4.50-5.00 ERA range.